College Football's Bubble Watch: The Final Week

Thirty-four bowls, sixty-eight teams.

Isn’t college football at this time of year like pre-tournament college hoops? The real money games are college football’s version of bubble games between conference teams verging on bowl eligibility or being home for the holidays. More bowl contracts filled means more revenue to be shared for the conferences.

BCS conferences have contracted to place 48 teams in bowls—with another two for the national championship game, of course. That leaves 18 spots for non-BCS football teams: More than they deserve, but throw them a scrap.

In a good year, non-BCS teams will get 15 percent of the bowl revenues. When Notre Dame makes a BCS bowl, it gets one percent.

Which conference is winning the bowl contract race? Who’s doing the most sweating? Which teams are on the "Bubble Watch"?

Here’s what the conference commissioners will be watching.

*Overall records are listed first, followed by conference records.

Sitting Pretty

ACC (12 teams)

2008-09—Contracts for nine bowls (75 percent of teams in conference)

Teams In (10)—Maryland, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, NC State

Bubble Teams (0)

Games of the Week: 

Conclusion: The ACC already has one more bowl eligible team than last year and have met their contracts. But both Virginia and NC State have difficult games to become bowl eligible. The ACC’s strategy of playing FCS schools has paid off—14 for the 12 teams. Virginia and NC State count wins over Richmond and William & Mary, respectively.

2007-08 Bowls, Profit: $19,263,649 (eight teams)

Average distribution per conference team (after expenses): $1.6 Million  

Revenue Will Be Up

Big East (8 teams)

Contracts for seven bowls (87.5 percent)

Teams In (6)—Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Rutgers

Bubble Teams (1)

Louisville (5-6, 1-5)

L’ville non-conference record (4-1): W—Tenn. Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, Middle Tenn. State; L—Kentucky

Games of the Week: Louisville @ Rutgers (12/4)

Conclusion: Louisville has lost four conference games in a row.  Rutgers has won five in a row.  Louisville faces the prospect of finishing the season with five losses, unable to win one game in last five to become bowl-eligible.

The Big East has qualified one more team than last year but will not their contracts without a Louisville win. 

2007-08 Bowls, Profit: $14,197,021 (five teams)

Average distribution per conference team: $1.77 Million

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