BCS Busted? Why This Season Could Break the BCS

Jay HendryCorrespondent INovember 23, 2008

I'm going to keep this short...maybe.

The latest BCS standings lay the foundation for the "BCS Perfect Storm."  Oklahoma and Texas are miles ahead of Florida in the BCS standings, and Oklahoma still has at least one big game left on their schedule.  A win at Oklahoma State should propel Oklahoma into the Big 12 title game, but what if it doesn't?


Consider the following scenario.

Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St., but not decisively enough to jump Texas.  Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship and beats Missouri.  Florida defeats Florida State and Alabama, neither by a large margin of victory.

Disconcerted, pro-Sooners voters reason that Oklahoma was playing better than anyone in the nation at the end of the season, and as a result Oklahoma, Texas, and Florida share No. 1 votes in the human polls, with Florida taking the lowest share.  Florida cannot make up the difference in the computers, and Oklahoma and Texas are left No. 1 and No. 2.

The BCS gives us an inter-conference rematch and leaves out the conference that has produced the last two national champions.


It's not much of a stretch.  Oklahoma currently holds a .370 point advantage over Florida in BCS average, a lead which may turn out to be insurmountable.  Much of this lead is through the computer rankings.  Florida took a large hit for playing an FCS team, while Oklahoma beat the No. 2 team in the nation.

Oklahoma's computer ranking would likely increase again next week as Oklahoma St. is ranked higher than Florida State, so the only game in which Florida can gain ground is the SEC championship.  

If Florida does not make up the difference in the computer rankings, they will be forced to rely on the human polls.  The problem is, Florida is already splitting the human polls with Oklahoma.

Those who voted Oklahoma No. 1 already will not change their vote to Florida, and Florida will also be competing with Texas for first place votes.  USC will likely steal a few out of principle, and Utah may get in on the action too.

Simply put, the human polls will account for very small gains, if any at all.


What will become of the BCS?

Leaving out the SEC champ would be a mega-disaster.  Consider the Anti-BCS ammunition that has already been loaded. 


1.  President-elect Barack Obama has already declared war on the BCS.  

"Change," it turns out, is a synonym for "playoffs."  He may have no control over what actually happens, but popular opinion will be shifted further away from the BCS due to his public denouncement of the system.


2. The "mid-majors" will likely be underrepresented this year.  

Utah is in, but Boise St. and Ball St. will not get a chance.  An Oregon State win gives the Pac-10 two bids, the Big 12 two bids, the SEC two bids, and the ACC, Big East, and Big Ten with one bid apiece.  That is nine of the 10 BCS bids.  Utah is guaranteed the other.  Sorry, Boise St. and Ball St.—you never had a chance.

I know Hawaii did little to help the "mid-majors" cause, but has everyone forgotten the magical game Boise St. blessed us with in 2006? (Who's to say the ACC champ will be competitive against a top 10 team anyway?)


3. The ACC Champ already sucks, and the Pac-10 Champ and Big East Champ have the potential to suck.

Georgia Tech is expected to lose against Georgia.  Florida State is expected to lose against Florida.  Boston College is playing Maryland, thus there is no point predicting what will happen because, well, it's Maryland.  Georgia Tech beat both FSU and BC. However, neither was a decisive victory.  The winner of the ACC will likely have four losses.  

Oregon State has three losses and is a win away from Roses.  USC really wants that one back.

Every team in the Big East minus Cincinnati is mediocre at best.  If Cincinnati goes Notre Dame all over Syracuse, then the champion of the Big East might not even be ranked. 


Throw an angry SEC into the mix of complainers, and something drastic will happen. The BCS may fold because of this crazy season.


Note: This is not a pro-playoff article. I'll tell you right now, the playoff system that will eventually be put in place is going to suck almost as much as the BCS.  It is highly unlikely that a playoff will be larger than eight teams, and the major conferences will still have auto-bids, so we'll be stuck with only two at-large bids instead of the current four.

No, this is a prediction of the BCS painting itself into a stupid corner and getting burned beyond any hope of return because of it.


Special thanks to Wann Harris for posting the BCS doomsday scenario over at my.is.  That's where I got the idea for this article from.