The Backdoor Cover: Week 2 NFL Picks
My alma mater, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, lost on the last play of the game to much hated Auburn by failing to get in the endzone by one inch. My pro team, the Denver Broncos, lost to much hated Oakland at home while the crowd was chanting for either the second, third or fourth-string quarterback, depending on who you believe. To top it off, I laid an egg in my fantasy leagues getting beat by the likes of Steve Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. Not to mention my picks didn’t exactly go undefeated.
All of this led me through the sports stages of losing.
1. Blame – This is where you rant and rave about the reasons you lost. It’s important to remember it’s everyone’s fault BUT yours. The refs, Josh McDaniels, someone actually starting Jacoby Jones or the Titans laying an egg on the road are all good examples. The blame stage is the first but is also the most fun.
2. Apathy – This is where you don’t care that your team or bets lost. Use phrases such as “look at all the productive things I’ll get done on Sundays now” when mentioning you didn’t even bother to look at possible free agent pick ups or early betting lines.
3. Woe is Me – This is where you care again but after the last stage it’s important to ease back into the swing of things. Be sure to point out how much better your opponents are or how you couldn’t pick a winner out of a hat. I’m not sure Mississippi State fans ever really leave this stage.
4. Bitter cocky guy – This is where you decide that every team and player not associated with you is absolutely terrible and you can’t stand them. Every other team in your conference? Hate them. Opponents fantasy players? Bums. Vegas beating you down? They can’t hold you back. This phase signals you are ready to begin the process all over again with a heartbreaking loss.
Let’s not over react to Week One. DON’T PANIC! The over went 11-3-1 people. That is never going to happen again. If anything it sets up some pretty nice unders.
Week 1 t0 Week 2 are the biggest reaction lines from Vegas the entire season. Play smart, play organized. Let’s be heroes with some picks that are going to make your stomach turn. If you have any questions on other games or just want to discuss why Rod Belding was never seen or heard from again on Saved by the Bell, I’m available on twitter.
ATLANTA +2 vs. Philadelphia – All week long, nothing but Falcons had the worst showing and didn’t live up to the hype. The Falcons do not lose at home and even more, they don’t lose two in a row. Check Matt Ryan’s stats on those two, I’m lazy. Trust me, they are fantastic. This line is out of whack based upon Philly love and ATL getting throttled.
TENNESSEE +6 vs. Baltimore – Another line that isn’t right. The Titans were beyond terrible and Baltimore had perhaps the most impressive showing of any team taking the Steelers lunch money with extreme prejudice. I have no problem early in the season backing the team that no one seems to want to back.
OAKLAND +3.5 vs. Buffalo – Two winners from week one. Buffalo was the talk of football the way they won by thirty points at Kansas City. I think Oakland is a solid team that will control the clock with the run game. Mainly just not ready to lay 3 or more with Buffalo.
NEW ORLEANS – 6.5 vs. Chicago – Saints gave GB all they could handle. Have had extra long to prepare and understand this is a game they need to win. Chicago unexpectedly had a huge win over a hyped team. Not the biggest fan of favorites around a touchdown but this looks right.
DALLAS -3 vs. San Francisco – I believe in Dallas this year. This line is a result of a bad fourth quarter and San Fran winning against possibly the worst team in the league. You know it’s got to be a nice situation for me to recommend a road favorite.
MIAMI/HOUSTON UNDER 47.5 – I’ll take my chances with two teams that have sneaky good defenses and offenses that would prefer to play ball control. Over mania is out of control and this game represents the line going the wrong way.
IOWA FLORIDA STATE TROY COLORADO STATE TOLEDO PENN STATE NOTRE DAME (sucker)
Keep it simple stupid. Genius words if there ever were. Let’s not over-complicate this. Seattle is terrible. Pittsburgh is good but just got embarrassed on the road. They are now at home. The are going to be very, very upset. This week I’m taking Pittsburgh to keep me alive. 1-0 using HOUSTON previously.
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