Why the Strikeout Is Undervalued

Josh Lipman by Contributor Written on November 21, 2008
Strikeout-glanville_feature

I'm as much of a “Moneyballing Stat-Head” has the next guy, but for all the reasons the strikeout has recently been deemed a useless statistical metric (and there are many), here are six reasons a high strikeout rate makes for an attractive pitcher.


Why GMs want pitchers with high strikeout rates

1. Striking someone out means that the pitcher threw well enough, not only to get the batter out, but to make him miss the ball completely (in most cases). With a pitcher that throws lots of strikeouts comes a guy with pretty good stuff - or at least one who knows how to use his stuff effectively.

2. Strikeouts are like batting average. Just as there are better statistical metrics for a batter's offensive ability (OBP,SLG,etc...), there exist more accurate measures of a hurler's pitching ability (WHIP, HRs allowed, OOBP, etc...).

However, a high strikeout rate is akin to a high batting average in that it's a sign that a ballplayer will probably age well. Batters with a high OBP but a low average early in their career tend to have a drop off in production much earlier in their career (Jeremy Giambi) than someone with a high batting average to complement the high OBP (Jason Giambi).
Similarly, pitchers with high strikeout rates as compared to bases on balls (K/BB) (Greg Maddux) will most likely age better than a pitcher with a low K/BB ratio (Barry Zito).

It’s no guarantee, but it does give a pretty good indication.

3. Sure, groundouts and flyouts are great, but when there’s a man on third and   less than two outs, nothing short of a pop out, line drive, or strikeout will do. Seeing that nobody wants to pitch for a line drive, hoping an infielder or shallow outfielder will catch it, the next best thing is to go for that strikeout. Without the strikeout ability, close games can easily be won on sacrifice flies, ground outs, base hits, or walks.

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written on November 21, 2008 Rankings/List

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