The Backdoor Cover: Week One NFL Picks

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The Backdoor Cover: Week One NFL Picks

“I’m in my prime.”

This week marks the return of The Hazean’s premier NFL gambling column with suicide pool selection at no extra charge. As an added bonus this year, I’ll offer college games I like as well. In last week’s college column, I went 5-2. #humblebrag.

On gamedays, I tweet out whatever side or total I am taking for the game at bryan_CTP, so if you like your timeline to have occasional spread talk  then feel free to follow me. Or if you have a question about a game I’ll at least be honest and tell you what I would do.

Don’t come looking for me if it doesn’t work out though, my wife watched a Kardashian marathon last night so I’ve been to hell and back. You don’t want to know the things I’ve seen/heard out there man.

Before we get to it, for my more affluent readers who get HBO, is there a bigger disparity between quality than the Curb Your Enthusiasm into Entourage hour Sunday nights? It’s like Josh McDaniels vs. Bill Belichick during the NFL draft. I spend a lot of my day wishing I could find a Leon-type friend for my life. I’d be his Caucasian.

Having said that…….on to this week’s picks:

NFL

SAINTS +4 vs Packers & UNDER 47 – A high profile start to the NFL weekend for sure. My favorite bet of the two is the UNDER at 47. Unders are a great bet, especially early in the year. If I had to pick a side, give me New Orleans with the four points to play with. I’m told Green Bay will take it easy on them because it’s still hurricane season.

 TITANS +1.5 vs Jaguars – This line came out AFTER the Jaguars cut Garrard. I’ll be honest, I was looking at TN before when they were getting three points. I’m always scared of Week 1 lines that seem too easy but I don’t see anyway the Jags win. I’m taking it and not looking back.

REDSKINS +3 vs New York Giants – Got to like the way this sets up for the Redskins at home. The Giants defense is a shell of what it is supposed to be and Washington should be a sneaky good running team. Let’s be honest, Grossman isn’t that turnover prone compared to Eli.

BUCCANEERS -1 vs Lions – Never thought I’d see the day when the Lions not only got this much respect from Vegas, but were an actual public play. I think fantasy sports has tainted our view of Detroit. Yes, they are exciting and everyone’s favorite breakout team BUT they still haven’t shown me they can beat a quality team on the road. I’ll take the suddenly undervalued home team.

DOLPHINS + 7 vs Patriots – The Monday night game people will stay awake to watch. I think the Dolphins have a very good defense and I’ll take them to somehow shorten the game and keep it within a touchdown for the home fans. You can’t get more public than the Patriots on a Monday night so we’ll use that angle as well.

*Something’s wrong with these lines…fair warning - ATL -2.5, PHI -4.5, KC – 5.5*

COLLEGE

Missouri + 7.5            Alabama -9.5          Air Force +2          Iowa – 7        BYU +7        Notre Dame -4.5

Reasoning? One movie I can’t get enough of these days is She’s Out of my League. It doesn’t have anyone in it I recognized, except the lead guy is someone who was once in a Seth Rogen movie. He had a small part and I forget which movie it was. Anyway, this movie gets better with every watch. The witty dialogue, the loveable loser characters complete with love interest that is yes, way too hot for him. SPOILER ALERT: He isn’t the usual guy she dates! It is because this movie didn’t do that well at the box office yet remains in constant movie channel rotation is the reason that these six games should cover. Against all odds.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’m fully aware that several of you are actually in survivor leagues with me, but that isn’t going to stop me hitting you up with some knowledge each week. If you aren’t in a survivor pool, may I suggest the one here at The Hazean. It’s free and I’m told there will be punch and pie once you join. This week, I’m going with the HOUSTON TEXANS to win. Betting against Kerry Collins is just like going against one of those rookie QBs you were thinking about, but I get a better team doing it. Fact: every year 40 percent of a survivor league goes out on the first week. I don’t aim to be made-up statistic.


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