Every year in fantasy football, there comes a time when everything comes down to a single matchup for the season: playoffs. We all try our best to get there, and try to make it out with a championship. The following guide will provide clues about who to trade for, trade away, or pick up off of waivers to strengthen your team for that final playoff push.
Having the best players during the regular season doesn't necessarily translate into winning in playoffs. Teams often rest their stud players for NFL playoffs, with disastrous consequences to your fantasy squad.
Last year, I had Randy Moss and Tom Brady, who both had record setting seasons and lost in the playoffs. I was shell-shocked. Appalled. Afterward I suffered from PTSD (post-traumatic second-place disorder).
This year I will go into playoffs more wary of stud players on stud teams, and look for players with great matchups throughout the playoffs. You too can reap the benefits of my hard work.
After hours of research on matchups against defenses during fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-17 for ESPN standard leagues) I have compiled a few lists of players worth picking up or dropping for the playoff fracas.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Each list is derived from examining the rankings of run or pass defenses (whichever is relevant to each position) and singling out teams that play all of their last four games against teams in the bottom half or top half of the league in defense ranking.
QB & WR
Pick 'em up
Chad Pennington, Camarilla, Ginn Jr. MIA
Brett Favre, Coles, Cotchery NYJ
Marc Bulger, Avery, Holt STL
These three QBs all face poor pass defenses and should put up lots of points. The receivers are ones that should also benefit.
Ditch 'Em
Tony Romo, Terrell Owens DAL
Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards CLE
Cleveland and Dallas both face four tough defenses for the last four games of the season. Sell 'em high now.
RB
Pick 'Em Up
Matt Forte, CHI. He's good and he is facing four poor run defenses during playoffs.
Others with favorable matchups in Weeks 14 & 15:
Tomlinson, SD faces OAK & KC
Rhodes and Addai, IND face CIN & DET
Ryan Grant, GB faces HOU & JAX
Whoever is playing for Denver faces KC & CAR
Drop 'Em
Thomas Jones, NYJ
Marion Barber, DAL both of these guys face 4 top 16 run defenses.
Marshawn Lynch plays two tough defenses in MIA and NYJ in the first round of playoffs.
TE
Pick 'Em Up
It looks as though tight ends could be critical for playoffs. Lots of them are playing against four teams that give up lots of fantasy points to TE's including:
Greg Olsen, CHI
Donald Lee, GB
Owen Daniels, HOU
Billy Miller, Jeremy Shockey NO
Alex Smith, TB
Also, Tony Gonzalez plays against the two worst TE-defenders in the first round in DEN & SD (two teams he has already scorched this season)
Drop 'Em
Dustin Keller, NYJ. Toughest schedule of any TE in the league during playoffs.
These are not intended to be surefire predictions, just statistical analysis that you can use at your own discretion. Hopefully my analysis will prove fruitful and will help you win your fantasy league!
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about 1 month ago
Thanks for doing the grunt work, man. One suggestion though. Maybe you should've used the words "Sit em" or "start em" instead of drop em or ditch em. Who's gonna drop Marion Barber for the stretch run?
Also, How about Frerotte? Did you take into account the weather factor? Frerotte plays indoors or in fair weather climates for most of the fantasy playoffs. While swirling winds and snow and rain may effect some QBs he'll be a safe bet throwing PA passes to Berrian in key FF Playoff weeks.
Hope ya don't mind the criticism. Thanks again.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the feedback. No i didn't think about weather at all, just statistics. I don't think anybody will drop Barber, but I would trade Barber for Forte at this point.
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