The Nightmare BCS Scenario That May Not Even Happen

TexasTechFanCorrespondent INovember 19, 2008

Let’s all take a quick recap of the last four weeks of 2007.


AP Top 10: Week 11, 2007


1. LSU
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. West Virginia
6. Missouri
7. Ohio State
8. Georgia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech



AP Top 10: Week 12, 2007


1. LSU
2. Kansas
3. Missouri
4. West Virginia
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Arizona State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Oregon
10. Oklahoma

AP Top 10: Week 13, 2007


1. Missouri
2. West Virginia
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. LSU
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kansas
8. USC
9. Oklahoma
10. Florida



AP Top 10: Week 14, 2007


1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Virginia Tech
6. USC
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Florida
10. Hawaii

Wow.  Oh what a difference a week makes, right?  So amidst all this talk of three-way ties in the Big 12 South and BCS doomsday scenarios, remember, there are still three weeks of college football left.  Three weeks.  As 2007 taught us, one week can make all the difference in the world.


Besides, assuming there will be a three-way tie in the Big 12 South and a nightmare scenario makes some very bold assumptions that I’m not ready to make yet.




Assumption 1: Oklahoma beats Texas Tech.


Let’s go over the talking points: “Texas Tech’s defense won’t be able to stop OU’s offense.”  “Texas Tech doesn’t have the running game to compete.”  “Slow down the Harrell to Crabtree connection, and you’ve won the game.”  “OU doesn’t lose at home.”  Blah blah blah.


First off, the statement “OU’s defense won’t be able to stop Tech’s offense” would be just as valid in my opinion.  Both of these teams have amazing offensive firepower and won’t easily be slowed down.


Then again, no one thought Tech’s defense would slow down the amazing offenses of Kansas, Texas, or Oklahoma State.  Kansas has since proved to be less impressive, but it was supposed to be the ultimate shootout.


OU’s defense gives up six more points per game than Tech’s does since conference play has started.  That may seem negligible, but that’s the spread right there.


OU’s only loss came to a really good Texas team.  Texas’s leading rusher is Colt McCoy.  I’ll take Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, please!  Tech has nine WRs with double-digit catches and 10 WRs with at least one touchdown catch.


Keeping Crabtree out of the end zone just won’t cut it.  That’s how A&M was so sure they could beat Tech in 2007—they lost that game 35-7.


OU doesn’t lose at home.  That statement is pretty accurate.  But that’s what’s beautiful about college football: Crazy things happen that aren’t supposed to.


Assumption 2: Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.


If Oklahoma beats Tech and there’s a three-way tie in the Big 12 South, there is still another week of football to be played.  Most importantly, Oklahoma still has to go to Stillwater to face a stout Cowboys team that would like nothing more than to knock their archrival right off that high horse.


What’s supposed to happen goes out the window in rivalry games.  Don’t be surprised to see the Cowboys pull off the upset.




Assumption 3: Texas beats Texas A&M.


All right, Texas should win this game by at least three scores, but didn’t we all say that last year and the year before that?  See above: What’s supposed to happen goes out the window in rivalry games.  This would be a much more shocking upset than Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, but certainly isn’t outside of the realm of possibility.




Assumption 4: Texas Tech beats Baylor.


All right, I’m willing to make this assumption, but a lot of people are still waiting for the other shoe to drop and for the “Typical Tech” loss.  Baylor is a much improved team from the last several seasons, and if Tech beats Oklahoma, they could easily overlook this game as they start preparing for the Tigers.


If Tech beats Oklahoma and loses to Baylor, they’ll still play for the Big 12 title, but it could throw a real monkey wrench into the title game standings.




Other crazy things that could happen: Florida could lose to Florida State, Alabama could lose to Auburn, Penn State could lose to Michigan State, Utah could lose to BYU, and Missouri could knock off the Big 12 South champ.


Unlikely?  Yes.  Impossible?  Definitely not.