I see this fight being a stand-up war, since that is almost always the result of two high-level grapplers going against each other. Even if it does hit the ground, I think Diaz will be on his back, and Condit knows better than to stay in Nick's extremely active full guard.
Both are very skilled fighters when standing, but I think The Natural Born Killer just has a much more technical striking style and knows how to handle aggressive fighters.
He has the power to knock Diaz out -- or at least do a lot of damage -- and the skill to hit with more accuracy than most fighters. He is aggressive, but not too aggressive that he will get too excited and miss his opportunity to finish.
He has the chin to outlast Nick's punches, and everything I've already mentioned to hold the advantage standing.
I see this fight ending in one of three ways:
First, it could end with a unanimous decision for Condit. He may lose round one, but I think that he will win the final two, without a doubt. I think he picks him apart standing up for the 30-27 decision win.
Second, it could end by a doctor's stoppage. Diaz is very prone to bleeding when he gets hit, and trust me, he would be hit hard and often against a fighter like Condit. He doesn't defend very well when he gets excited and tries to stand and bang.
Carlos also likes to use his elbows and knees, which everyone knows cause more bleeding than punches, so that could happen. If it does, I think it'll be stopped in the intermission between the second and third rounds.
Lastly, Condit could knock him out. As I mentioned earlier, he knocked out Kim, who has a great chin. Before that, he knocked out Dan Hardy with a hard left and remains the only fighter ever to knock him out. In almost every fight in which I've seen Hardy take part, he's barely ever even been rocked, so much as knocked out like that.
It's already happened to Diaz, and if Daley were more careful with his strikes, it almost assuredly would have happened again. If this fight were to happen, I think it would be very dangerous for Nick. I think this is the least likely option, but it definitely could happen against a striker of Condit's caliber.
In the end, I'd have to say that Condit would win this one by decision. Please feel free to let me know your thoughts on the article and/or your expectations of this fight as well.