The first half of the 2011 Vuelta a España has been exciting and unpredictable.  Mark Cavendish abandoned after a weak performance in the early stages.  Illustrating how close the racing has been, seven riders have worn the leader’s red jersey during the first 10 stages.  Team Sky rider Christopher Froome is the surprising leader at the first rest day.

Christopher Froome is the first African born rider ever to lead a Grand Tour.  But he will not finish on the podium.  Six riders are within one minute of Froome, and 15 riders are still within striking distance for a win.

The Vuelta a España gets more difficult in week two, and major questions need to be answered in the General Classification competition.

Read on for an assessment of the first 10 days of the Vuelta a España and key questions for the final 11 stages.

What happened to the sprints?

Mark Cavendish abandoned in Stage 4.  Tyler Farrar crashed out.  Oscar Friere abandoned with an illness.  With only two sprint finishes in the first week and potentially only two in the final 11 stages, the 2011 Vuelta a España is not sprinter-friendly.  The famous sprinters made an early exit from this year’s Vuelta.

In 2011, Vuelta a España course organizers went for more intrigue and challenge than traditional sprint finishes provide.  This year’s Vuelta has virtually eliminated the typical stage—a long breakaway followed by a “catch” and final sprint.  Stages include short but steep (over 20 percent grade) uphill finishes, large early hills and other undulations to separate the peleton and make the racing more interesting.  The stage profiles resemble those of the spring classics.

The result—fewer sprints, fewer crashes, more attacking—makes for more interesting racing.  The race is more animated.  Major contenders are mixing it up in almost every stage, and they must pay constant attention or risk losing time.  That’s good for cycling.

What should we watch for in the next two weeks?

The 2011 Vuelta a España has matched expectations thus far.  In the General Classification (overall competition), climbers such as Joaquin Rodriguez used the uphill finishes of the early stages to build a lead, but time trial specialists such as Bradley Wiggins regained control in the Stage 10 time trial.

The Vuelta a España has not been decided yet; it will be decided this week.  In an earlier article, we predicted that stage 14 would be the decisive stage.  We’re going stick with that prediction.  Three consecutive mountain finishes will test the General Classification hopefuls, and we expect one to separate himself from the pack during these stages.

Even though this week will be establish the overall winner, the race will remain close for all 21 stages.  The lumpy profiles of the week three stages offer opportunities to attack, so every day will be exciting.

The intrigue surrounding the Basque Country offers a second reason to watch stages 19 and 20.  While the race may not be in doubt during these stages, political intrigue provides an interesting storyline in the 2011 Vuelta a España.

How are the major contenders performing?  Who will win?

The race for the General Classification is still wide open.  For some of the favorites (Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquin Rodriguez, Bradley Wiggins), the race has evolved as expected.  Other favorites (pre-race favorite Igor Anton, Michele Scarponi) have disappeared or been disappointing.  Relative unknowns (Jakob Fugelsang, Bauke Mollema, Maxime Monfort) have stepped up into the picture for the overall lead.

Team Sky is currently dominating the standings, with Froome as the leader and Bradley Wiggins in third place.  Don’t expect things to finish that way though—Froome will sacrifice his podium position in support of team leader Wiggins.

With the time trial out of the way, contenders who ride consistently well in the mountains will have the best chance to win.  The winner will emerge as these questions are answered:

-  Can Bradley Wiggins hold on to his slim lead?  He’s been aggressive in the mountains, but he hasn’t been able to separate from competitors.  Strong teammates will help Wiggins, but will it be enough?

-  Can Vincenzo Nibali win with a strategy of staying close in every stage but (potentially) never actually winning a stage?

-  Can Joaquin Rodriguez vault himself back into contention?  Rodriguez is the most explosive overall contender, but he has lacked the consistency he needs to win.

-  Will any contender step up?  Michele Scarponi, Denis Menchov, Jurgen van den Broeck have been lackluster to date.  Have they been saving their energy for the final two weeks, or does their lackluster performance indicate a lack of form?

-  Does any relative unknown have a chance to surprise?

Vincenzo Nibali has been the most consistent overall contender during the first 10 stages.  While he hasn’t demonstrated explosiveness by separating from his rivals, he’s finished at or near the top of the race in every important stage.

Prediction:  Vincenzo Nibali’s consistency will pay off; he will repeat as Vuelta a España winner.  He’ll be joined on the podium by Bradley Wiggins and Joaquin Rodriguez.