Florida—Alabama: 5 Reasons Why the Gators Will Win The SEC

3.  Alabama does not have an edge in the running game

I would have made this point before Florida piled up 346 yards rushing against South Carolina, but it is nice to have that kind of proof. 

Disregarding rushing yards per game, which is a category that Florida now leads anyway, Florida has a better running game right now.  They now have Emmanuel Moody back from an injury he sustained in the Ole Miss game.  In the Arkansas game, Urban Meyer discovered how good Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey are. 

If Florida plays the SEC Championship with Moody, Demps, Rainey, and Percy Harvin healthy,  I give the Gators an advantage in the running game.  Don't forget that Tebow is a good runner too.

Sure, Alabama allows 75.1 rushing yds a game, but holding Clemson to zero and Western Kentucky to 42 does not prove they can hold Florida under 200.

I can now hear Alabama fans screaming: Alabama only allowed Georgia to run for 50 yards!

Hm, maybe that's because when Georgia got down 31-0 at halftime, they decided they didn't have time to run the clock out in the second half.  Quick scores from the passing game were their only chance.  Georgia was forced to throw.

4.  Alabama is a first half team; Florida ends games in the third quarter

Alabama has consistently played better in the first half than the second half.  In the first half they have outscored opponents 224-47.  In the second half the margin is only 119 to 91.

Florida, meanwhile, has outscored opponents 227-26 in the first half and 214-87 in the second half.

This cannot be explained by saying that Alabama just protected their lead in the second half.  Alabama has been up by at least 24 at halftime three times this year, while Florida has led by that much four times. 

If anything, Alabama has been involved in more competitive second halves.  Alabama has led by 14 or less at the half six times, while Florida has only allowed opponents to stay that close five times.

Clearly, it is Florida that has had less at stake in the second half overall, and yet they are the ones playing like the game is still in question.

The Gators' scoring margin in the second half is actually a little misleading.  They've allowed 39 points during the fourth quarter of blowout victories.  Only 14 of Alabama's points allowed have come in similar "garbage time."

So if we could only count the competitive portion of the games, Florida would have an even greater edge in scoring margin.

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