Pirates Forecast: Analysis and Predictions

Predicting what the Pittsburgh Pirates will do in a given offseason has to be one of the hardest tasks in the world.

Granted, the Buccos are under a brand new management team, so we can suppose that they'll do what it takes to build a championship team. But, before the Coonely-Huntington era, our beloved Pirates were operating under perhaps the worst management team in all of professional sports: Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield.

Since 2001, the Pirates fan base has been among the most confused and poorly treated in baseball. After a few losing seasons, we're told that we're in complete overhaul mode; be prepared for some drastic changes.

So what happens?

Over the next several years: we dump promising third baseman Aramis Ramirez for nearly nothing, then trade Brian Giles for two potential superstars in Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (Corey Stewart was in there, too). And then there was Jason Kendall; inked, to a huge, long-term contract as a future franchise cornerstone, he was then shipped off to Oakland for high-priced veterans Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman.

Then, while rebuilding again in 2006, the Pirates decided to spend millions of dollars upgrading the team with over-priced free agents Jeromy Burnitz and Joe Randa (who soon lost his job to Freddy Sanchez).

Amid a midseason slump, Burnitz, in fact, commented on the state of the '06 Pirates, "I'm Joe High-Paid Free Agent. That, in and of itself, should tell you the big picture that the team's in."

Oh, and who can forget, amidst our last rebuilding process in 2007, the $10 million acquisition of Matt Morris?

So when I'm told we're in "rebuilding mode," forgive me if I'm confused as to what that actually means.

With a 16th consecutive losing season under the collective belt of the Bucco faithful, one can only hope the new management will begin to address our long-term needs, once and for all.

Pirates outlook for 2009 and this off season

Outfield

One of the few areas of depth in the organization, the Pirates should be well- positioned over the next few years with Brandon Moss, Andrew McCutchen, and Nate McLouth expected to comprise a promising young outfield.

In fact, with the likes of Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, Robbie Grossman, Jamie Romak and Steve Pearce all at various stages of development, the Pirates will have a steady stream of outfield talent for the next few years and, perhaps, can deal from a position of strength.

However, few of the aforementioned have established themselves enough to command anything of significance in return, and those who have—McLouth and (to a lesser extent) Morgan—are both young, talented and cheap enough that they'll probably be around for a while.

Prediction: No trades this off season. McLouth signs a long-term deal and Morgan takes Jason Michael’s vacated spot as a primary fourth outfielder. 

First Base

Seeing that Adam LaRoche is the only major league-caliber first baseman in the system (Pearce is close, but he's probably more suited for a super backup role, long term), he'll definitely be staying in a Pirates uniform for at least one more season.

Despite his supernaturally-slow first halves and his relatively high salary (probably $6.5-7.5 million after arbitration), his promising potential and his high value as a left-handed power hitter in PNC Park mean he might even be around a lot longer than ’08-‘09.

Prediction: No trade this off season. LaRoche may be approached about a long-term deal, before he starts to put it all together. Breakout season, anyone?

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