The Air Force Falcons have made it to four straight bowl games in Troy Calhoun’s four seasons as head coach. He has certainly turned this program around, and the Falcons will be a sleeper in the Mountain West this season. They are coming off a 9-4 campaign from 2010, with three of their losses coming by five points or less. That includes a 24-27 loss at then-No. 7 Oklahoma.

With 14 starters and 58 lettermen returning, Calhoun appears to have his best team yet. Boise State has now joined the conference, so while they will be better, the Falcons are a long shot to win the conference. Here is a look at their offense and defense heading into 2011, as well as my predictions on where the Falcons finish in the MWC.

Offense

Air Force brings back six starters from an offense that put up 30.8 points and 426 total yards per game a year ago. Senior QB Tim Jefferson is one of the top dual threats in the country. He threw for 1,458 yards and 10 touchdowns to six interceptions last year, while finishing second on the team in rushing (794 yards, 15 TD).

Leading rusher Asher Clark returns for his senior season after running for 1,031 yards and five touchdowns last season. The Falcons also bring back two of their top three receivers in seniors Jonathan Warzeka (18 receptions, 406 yards, three TD) and Zack Kauth (16, 274, 4).

The offensive line paved the way for a whopping 307 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry while allowing just five sacks in 2010. While it will be hard to improve on those numbers, they have a decent chance with three starters and seven of their top ten linemen returning. Leading the way is first-team All-MWC RG AJ Wallerstein.

 
Defense

The defense took a step back last year, but it was still a solid unit nonetheless. Eight starters return from a defense that gave up 21.1 points and 349 total yards per game. The Falcons welcome back their top three tacklers as well.

Up front, Air Force brings back two starters and four of their top six along the defensive line.  Senior DE Zach Payne (55 tackles, 6.5 for loss) and senior NT Ryan Gardner (29 tackles) are their top two returnees.

The Falcons are in good shape at linebacker with their No. 1 and No. 3 tacklers returning. They also have five linebackers back who started last season. The two studs are senior ILB Jordan Waiwaiole (No. 1 tackler, 96 tackles, 7.5 for loss) and senior ILB Brady Amack (No. 3 tackler, 82 tackles, 4.5 for loss).

Air Force was particularly stingy against the pass last year, allowing 148 passing yards/game and 54.8 percent completions.  Despite the loss of one of their best players in CB Reggie Rembert (51 tackles, 13 passes defended, three INT), the secondary should be solid once again. That’s because they return seven of their top eight defensive backs, including senior FS Jon Davis (No. 2 tackler, 93 tackles, three INT), who was second-team All-MWC last year.

Mountain West Prediction: Second Place

I really like this Air Force team and believe they are the sleeper in the Mountain West. I have them beating a young TCU team at home in the second week of the season, thus I have them picked to finish ahead of the Horned Frogs. 

The Falcons get four conference home games, and winnable road games at New Mexico and Colorado State. I expect no worse than a 5-2 finish in the MWC, and possibly a 6-1 mark.