2011 Vuelta a España: Predictions and Viewer's Guide

Fabian Cancellara will start, but he doesn't have much of a chance to win
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The 2011 Vuelta a España starts on Saturday in Benidorm, Spain.  Read on for a viewer’s guide to the last Grand Tour of the professional cycling season.  In this article, we predict the performance of Mark Cavendish, the five must-watch stages and the overall winner.

Like the Tour de France and the Giro d’ Italia, the Vuelta a España is a grueling three-week race.  Riders will cover 3,295 kilometers (over 2,047 miles) over 21 stages.

There are plenty of reasons to watch this year’s Vuelta a España.  Mark Cavendish, the most prolific winner in professional cycling over the past two years, will take the start. 

In addition, Vincenzo Nibali returns to defend the title he won in last year’s race.  The competition should be close and the racing should be exciting.

In this guide, we’ll answer three key questions about the 2011 Vuelta a España:

-  Will Mark Cavendish dominate the sprint stages again?

-  Which stages are must-watch stages?

-  Who will win and why?

To make things interesting, we’ll offer a set of predictions that we can track as the race progresses.

Will Mark Cavendish Dominate the Vuelta a España Sprints?

Will Cavendish dominate again? Not so fast...
Michael Steele/Getty Images

Coming off his dominant performance in the Tour de France (five stage wins and the green jersey), Mark Cavendish should be well positioned to dominate the sprints in the Vuelta a España.  However, several factors suggest that Cavendish’s 2011 Vuelta performance could suffer:

-  He’ll be racing without his trusted leadout man Mark Renshaw

-  He’ll be racing after a month of upheaval in his team (HTC-Highroad), who recently announced plans to disband at the end of 2011

-  There are not many sprint opportunities, with only three flat stages among the first 10

Cavendish will also be racing against other sprinters who are motivated to beat him, including American Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Cervelo) and Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre). 

Spaniard Oscar Friere (Rabobank) will be especially motivated to beat Cavendish this year.  Not only is the race in his home country, but Friere is also searching for a team in 2012.  Victories in this year’s Vuelta will only enhance his chances of finding a team.

Cavendish didn’t get his reputation as the fastest bike rider in the peleton for nothing.  He will win stages.  But he won’t win many.

Prediction:  Cavendish wins two stages in this year’s Vuelta; he abandons after stage 12.

What Vuelta a España Stages Are Must-Watch?

Map of this year's Vuelta a España

Three stages will determine the outcome of the Vuelta a España:

Stage 4 (Aug. 23), Baza - Sierra Nevada
A mountain stage in the first week of racing is unusual.  Expect the climbers to use this stage to gain an early advantage on the time-trial specialists.

Stage 10 (Aug. 29), Salamanca
The only individual time trial, stage 10 is critical for the time trial specialists.  They must build significant time gaps before the difficult mountain stages to come.

Stage 14 (Sept. 3), Astorga - La Farrapona.  Lagos de Somieda
The second of three straight mountain stages, Stage 14 ends with a difficult summit finish.  The length and steep gradient could make the final climb of Stage 14 the decisive moment in the race.

Racing action isn’t the only factor in determining the must-watch stages in this year’s Vuelta.

For the first time since 1978, the Vuelta will ride through the Basque Country of northern Spain.  The Basque Country has one of the most rabid fan bases in professional cycling. 

It’s also the center of a political firestorm—Basque separatists consider the region an independent nation.  In 1978, fierce protests forced race organizers to alter or cancel stages altogether.

The political backdrop makes Stages 19 and 20 (Sept. 9 and 10) must-watch stages.  Will there be protests?  Will the race progress smoothly?  These open questions add new storylines to this year’s Vuelta.

Prediction:  Stage 14 will be decisive—the winner of the Vuelta a España will take the red jersey on Stage 14.

Who Will Win the 2011 Vuelta a España, and Why Will They Win?

This year's race should be close
Michael Steele/Getty Images

Winning a Grand Tour requires three essential elements:

-  Luck.  Good luck can’t win a Grand Tour, but bad luck can lose one.

-  Form.  The winner’s form will peak at the right time.

-  Strategy.  The winner will capitalize on his opportunities and limit his losses on bad days.

There is no clear favorite for this year’s Vuelta a España.  Every contender has a weakness.

With eight mountain stages and only one individual time trial, this race seems ready-made for a climber.  The strategy for a climber is to limit losses in the time trial and win the race in the mountains. 

The climbers include Igor Anton (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD), Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) and Jurgen Van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto).

Time trial specialists have a difficult task in this year’s Vuelta.  The time trial is early (Stage 10), leaving half the race for climbers to recover lost time.  Time trial specialists will aim to take a big lead in the time trial then hold on through the mountain stages. 

The time trial specialists include Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale), Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC) and Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky).

This Bleacher Report article has a more in-depth profile of each contender.

My prediction this year is Joaquim Rodriguez.  He is an attacking rider, and the steep climbs in this Vuelta suit his style.  Rodriguez is also motivated to redeem himself for a poor time trial that cost him the win in last year’s Vuelta.  This is his year.

Prediction:  Joaquim Rodriguez will win, with Michele Scarponi and Denis Menchov making the podium.