If the Season Ended Today: BCS Projections

Michael OleszekAnalyst INovember 13, 2008

If the season ended today, the BCS landscape would look like this, given the current BCS standings and the current BCS arrangements.


Because the season is not over, conference title games have not been played, and this is purely speculation at this point. I am choosing conference champions based on BCS rankings.




The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.


Alabama (BCS No. 1) vs. Texas Tech (BCS No. 2)


The champion of a BCS conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid unless two other teams from their own conference finish No 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS rankings.


Doesn’t apply in this case.


The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if it is ranked in the top 12—Utah (MWC, BCS No. 7) and Boise State (WAC, BCS No. 9)—or ranked in the top 16 and higher than another BCS Conference champion.


Ball State (MAC, BCS No. 14)—Big East Champion Pitt is ranked No. 21.


A special case is made for independent Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.


Doesn’t apply in this case.


No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games.


Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State would be eliminated.


The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.


Texas (BCS No. 3) receives at-large bid.


If the third-ranked team did not require an at-large berth, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.


Florida (BCS No. 4) receives at-large bid, due to so-called "Kansas State Rule" which ensures that the No. 1-No. 4 BCS teams appear in a BCS Bowl.




The BCS Bowl Matchups would look like this.


BCS Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech


Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State


Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. at-large or Pittsburgh


Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. at-large or Pittsburgh


Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. at-large or Pittsburgh


Pittsburgh would be assured of a BCS Bowl as Big East Champion.




Here is the reality.


Because Utah, Boise State, and Ball State would all automatically qualify for the BCS, someone would have to be left out.


There are 11 teams to fill 10 slots. You can't have 11 teams when only 10 are required.


This is why the BCS is so comical, and why we need a playoff in college football.