Daily Haze: Fantasy Football Busts, Steals Based on Average Draft Position
Fantasy seasons are not won on draft day, but they can be lost. Reaching too high for some players could put your fantasy team behind the eight ball to start the season.
But finding value in other players is a good way to make up for that. And it certainly can feel like you won your draft if you come away with some nice steals.
Some observations, based on average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator:
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
ADP 40 (4.05)
Considering that the starting running back in San Diego — Mike Tolbert — is not being taken until the eighth round, I would say fantasy owners are reaching a little too high for a player who was a major disappointment in 2010.
Wes Welker, WR, Patriots
ADP 45 (4.10)
Welker is a nice little pick-up in a points-per-reception league, I will grant that. But there are too many weapons in New England’s passing game to warrant a fourth round selection for the diminutive Welker. Plus he is not much of a threat to cross the goal-line, unlike some of Tom Brady‘s other weapons (Chad Ochocinco, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez).
Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
ADP 35 (3.11)
The offseason surgery and lingering neck injury is dampening Manning’s fantasy draft stock. And that is good news for you, fantasy owners. An elite quarterback can be had at a modest price.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
ADP 42 (4.06)
The Panthers paid Williams like a starting running back, and he is going to be that this year. This is a run-first offense and he should see lots of touches in both the passing and running game. I think the Panthers will be better than most experts expect.
Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
ADP 53 (5.03)
Could be the steal of the draft. Marion Barber is gone and the Cowboys have said they will not limit Felix’s touches this season. All he needs to do is stay healthy (that is asking a lot given his history) and he could have an elite season.
Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
ADP 58 (5.09)
Only one year removed from a top-10 fantasy ranking among wide receivers, Boldin finds himself smack dab in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Joe Flacco‘s top two targets (Todd Heap and Derrick Mason) are gone, so there should be plenty of passes heading Boldin’s way this season. Bounce-back candidate.
Here are today’s great reads:
- Update on yesterday’s Monday Morning Rehab, which featured Jeremy Maclin and his mysterious illness: The Eagles’ receiver is “fine” according to his family. Still no word on anything official from the team or his doctors. [National Football Post]
- Chris Johnson’s holdout continues, and it is getting a little more dangerous for fantasy owners. The Titans are willing to make him the highest paid running back in the league, but Johnson wants to be the highest paid play-maker. If you drafted Johnson, prepare yourself for a potentially long holdout now. [Shutdown Corner]
- If you are looking for someone to take in the first three picks besides Chris Johnson, consider Jamaal Charles. In fact, I have heard more and more arguments recently in favor of Charles as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts. [SI.com]
- Fantasy Juggernaut Index update: San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami and Seattle have little to offer fantasy owners this year, despite some big names (Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Brandon Marshall). [Roto Arcade]
- But there is a sleeper on one of those teams if you are looking for a spark at running back. Do not be fooled by the trade for Reggie Bush, the Dolphins are going to give Daniel Thomas this job sooner rather than later. No way Bush can be the every-down back in the NFL. [Hatty Waiver Wire Guru]
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