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Moving on to the current roster: I’m not sure what it would take for a manager, but Terry Francona has to look like a promising choice right now. He’s currently in his eighth season and I see almost no way that he doesn’t make it two more.
I’m also a little less certain on Hall of Fame standards for managers, but I would think he has to be on the right track.
Among the non-Wakefield pitchers: Josh Beckett looks to be well off the Hall of Fame track and needs four more years with the team (his current contract will only take him through three more). He’ll be 32 next season, so this is likely too late for a major push.
Clay Buchholz has shown promise.
But really, Jon Lester is the best candidate.
Through his six seasons so far, he has 21.4 bWAR and 21.1 fWAR, while his current contract, like Beckett’s, runs through at least 2014. On top of that, he’s only 27, so there still should be several good seasons left.
The hitters can similarly be parsed down.
Jason Varitek is the elder statesman of the group. Even though he’s played 15 years with the team, his numbers are nowhere near even Nomar’s (23.4 bWAR, 25 fWAR). He stands little chance, honestly.
Jacoby Ellsbury, like Buchholz, is young and promising, but his track record to date (particularly before this year) doesn’t get him into the Hall.
Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are like Beckett; they both (will likely) have many good years with the team, but they joined rather late. Even with their mega-contracts, they’ll still only have eight and seven years with the team respectively, assuming they don’t resign.
They’ll both be struggling to reach the minimum tenure, even before we talk about their Hall of Fame chances.
David Ortiz needs one more season to qualify for the ten year rule. I doubt he’ll make the Hall unless he either 1) plays at an all-star level into his 40s; or 2) gets a significant push from sentimental Hall voters.
He may qualify under the “fan favorite exemption” as well, given his postseason heroics and all. I’m not sure that would do it, though. So far, Big Papi has 30.2 bWAR and 32 fWAR with the team.
Kevin Youkilis has parts of eight years under his belt so far. However, he got a late start, not even getting a regular job until 2006 (when he was 27). He has 28 fWAR and 30.2 bWAR so far, but I’m still skeptical he can keep up at a Hall of Fame pace, seeing as he’s now 32.
Like most of the others, he’d likely need some sort of exemption.
Dustin Pedroia is probably the best bet, outside of Boggs and Clemens. In his six seasons so far, Pedroia has put up 24.0 bWAR and 25 fWAR with his current contract running through 2014 (with a 2015 option).
He’s almost 28, so he should have some prime years left. Right now, he’s on a Hall of Fame pace and it looks like staying with the team for a decade shouldn’t be a problem.