Twins Get Shafted in Johan Santana Deal

The third player included in the deal is Kevin Mulvey, the 62nd overall pick in the 2006 draft out of Villanova. Mulvey moved fast through the Mets organization, beginning his first full season at AA Binghamton. Mulvey posted good numbers with Binghamton—a 3.32 ERA with 110 strikeouts compared to 43 walks in 151.2 innings. He even started a game with AAA Norfolk, going six innings while allowing no runs or walks with three strikeouts.

With a good showing in AAA-ball this summer, Mulvey could enter the rotation late in the year at the earliest, but most likely he'll compete for a spot in 2009. He doesn't project to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he should be at least a quality arm in the Twins rotation down the road.

The final piece of the puzzle is Philip Humber, a former third-overall pick out of Rice who the Mets were once very, very high on. Humber passed up rookie and low-A ball and began his pro career at high-A ball for the Mets, where he struggled to keep his ERA below five. The Mets, still high (if I just stopped the sentence here, it might explain this) on Humber, even gave him a shot at AA ball that year, where he struggled in four innings of work.

The next spring, Humber found himself back in rookie ball for one start before splitting time between high-A and AA ball, finding success in both leagues. Humber moved up to AAA ball in 2007 and was essentially mediocre, posting a 4.27 ERA in 139 innings.

Something that jumped out at me on the stats page was Humber's 21 home runs allowed in those 139 innings, or about one every six and 2/3 innings. That's an alarmingly high rate, and Humber won't make it in the majors if he's giving up a home run every start. He'll likely compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot in Spring Training this year, but I'd wager he'll end up in AAA Rochester for the Twins when they head north in late March.

There's a good chance these four players will all pan out to be quality, major-league players. But that's what should really irk Twins fans. Quality. Not great. Quality.

That's quality when the Twins could have had Jacoby Ellsbury plus other decent prospects from Boston that likely could end up with the same career paths as Humber and Mulvey.

That's quality when the Twins could have had one stud pitcher in Phil Hughes from the Yankees (again, if the rumors were true) plus other decent prospects from New York that likely could end up with the same career paths as Humber and Mulvey.

So why didn't the Twins take the offer that essentially guarantees them one major-league star player (I rarely use the word "guarantee" to describe a prospect, but Ellsbury and Hughes both appear ready enough for me to use the G-word) along with other hit-and-miss prospects than one that might yield a solid lead-off hitter and a couple of middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starters?

Were the Twins really that concerned with trading Santana in their league? Because, I got news for you, Twins fans:

Your team won't be seeing October, let alone the World Series, anytime soon.

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