Memo to the Virginia Cavaliers: Get to the Line More

Virginia runs into scoring droughts—one might venture to call them deserts even—rather frequently.

 They usually occur at the worst times, like when it appears that they ought to be extending a 10-15 point advantage into 20-30 point “break out your favorite Andy Burns cheer” demolishing.

Many people, especially those perceptive ones at the Charlottesville’s own Daily Progress, can tell you that Virginia has blown leads in three out of the last four games.

But you’re not reading this—both of you—because you’re into the typical analysis. I’m not here to provide the usual hum drum about “live by the three, die by the three” which, for this team, does hold true.

I won’t point out Virginia lacks any inside presence (done and done). Indeed, I’ll leave those hackneyed colloquialisms at the door, fodder for Mike Gminski and Dan Bonner to chime in with at the feet of a second half Cavalier collapse.

Nay, my point is more subtle than that: If Virginia shot fewer threes, they would go to the free throw line more, reducing the likelihood that scoring droughts would occur.

Only 19 percent of Virginia’s points come from the line, pitting them just ahead of Wake Forest (18 percent) and Clemson (15 percent) in the ACC. However, Wake Forest and Clemson both score more than half (56 percent and 54 percent respectively) of their points on twos, where they shoot 46 percent and 48 percent from the field in those tries.

Thus, Deacons and Tigers have a steady stream of twos to combat any scoring slowdown they might experience from beyond the three-point line.

Virginia, on the other hand, has a compunction for jacking up the three, as only 44 percent of the Cavs field goals are from two point range. Consider the following, year over year comparison of the team,

Year	Team	FT %	Rank	2 PT %	Rank	3 PT %	Rank
2006-2007	Virginia	24.0	(27)	44.6	(305)	31.4	(97)
2007-2008	Virginia	19.1	(217)	44.8	(303)	36.1	(38)

Last year’s team was simply more aggressive—27th in the country—in getting to the line, while this year’s team prefers to stay out by the three-point line. I like to call it the AJing of the team—named for the 2006-2007 version of Adrian Joseph (the current version is much better) who went to the line only four times the whole season.

It’s that simple, if Virginia were a bit more aggressive on offense, their leads wouldn’t evaporate.

Furthermore, free throws allow for better defense too. Getting to the free throw line disrupts the opponent’s offensive rhythm, allowing the defense a chance to set, as opposed to the long rebounds that often occur when the Cavs launch up yet another three.

(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com)