Les Miles is Losing...Told You So

Miles is not a dumb guy. He just makes stupid, irrational decisions. The emergency press conference to deny allegations of his departure was a good one in the short term, but not in the long term.

Evidence: this season. With huge expectations and the most talented mix of offensive linemen and defensive front seven, Miles is being out-coached.

There are two kinds of coaching decisions: 1) decisions that help your team, and 2) no decisions at all, just letting the team feel its way through games and going with conservatism.

The former will win games. The latter won't win games, but it also won't lose games. Then there is Les Miles, who introduced a third kind of coaching decision to us: decisions that hurt his team.

All the fourth down "go-for-it's" are ridiculous and can hurt LSU just as much as they helped. Last year was the luckiest season I have ever seen by a coach/team.

If Miles' preposterous fourth-down conversion percentage were any lower last year, the Bayou Bengals would not be the defending National Champions this year.

It is true that going for it on fourth can energize your team, but it can also be detrimental to their psyches.

Miles was simply outclassed yesterday. He knew how good Alabama's defense was and how Jarrett Lee, a 19-year old kid, had been turning the ball over a lot. Yet he refuses to game plan with this in mind.

Charles Scott and Keiland Williams are running well. Don't let Lee lose you the game. It's too much pressure for a guy in his situation. LSU has more talent than Alabama, and they almost won the game because of it.

Neither the team nor Jarrett Lee lost the game. Nor did Saban and Alabama win it. Les Miles lost it, just as I predicted he might.

He had Lee throwing the ball all over Tiger Stadium. Lee's QB rating was awful. He was showing no improvement, he had no confidence, yet Miles forced him to the air. Well, he and his coordinator. But Miles has ultimate control.

Overtime is the perfect example.

Not wanting to be forced to kick again for the win after the field goal try at the end of regulation was blocked, even Nick Saban made a questionable decision to throw to Julio Jones.

But at least we can sort through his thought process: the best receiver in the stadium in one-on-one coverage; not wanting to have to kick another field goal for the win; taking a shot when they least expect, etc.

Les Miles, on the other hand, effectively cost his team the game by having Lee throw. What does Lee do? He throws to a double-covered receiver and is intercepted. The pick all but sealed the victory for the Tide.

You have the ball first. You have got to be conservative. Especially when you have an offensive line that dominated Alabama's front seven, especially in the first half.

I realize that the Alabama run defense had stiffened in the second half, but you take away your team's confidence when you don't allow them to run the ball...especially in overtime when you HAVE to run it; AND when you have the ball FIRST.

Point taken?

Les Miles and LSU are still going to be pretty good the next few years, but don't be surprised when they have not-so-great teams.

They have more talent than any other team in the SEC, but Miles' decision-making will neutralize it. Luckily for Miles, he has a great recruiting base in Louisiana, unlike Tennessee's Phil Fulmer, he doesn't have to go far for talent.

This will save him until he leaves the school. He will still have a good career record, but when that day comes, remember who predicted yet another logical/obvious scenario.

If Rich Rodriguez can't vindicate the terrible season the Wolverines are having (which I also predicted) in the next couple years, Miles will head north, err... home.

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