Third place...
BMW will be strong just as always. But crucially they'd not be quite as good as the top two. In my short period in touch with F1, I have never seen a team that chickens out make it to the top. BMW chickened out in 2008 and they'd pay the price for that with Renault charging down their neck in 2009.
It might sound silly, but the morale of the team has a HUGE impact on the final outcome. I think BMW lost it in the latter part of 2008.
Fourth place...
Renault is the most motivated team on the grid, but I think Carlos Ghosn was bit too late injecting desperately needed cash for 2009 development.
I also think that Renault made too much into 2008 in a desperate attempt to retain Fernando. Although Alonso might be challenging for podiums, Nelsinho might let the team down yet again.
Fifth place...
Toyota will have improved massively, but I think Fernando will make the difference for Renault. Nevertheless, I expect a very close fight among BMW, Renault and Toyota.
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