Notes on the 2008 Gold Gloves

Hunter won his first Gold Glove in 2001, when he was +25 FRAA (Fielding Runs above Average) according to Baseball Prospectus, but he had a negative number every year since then until 2008, when he was +15, a perfect example of a player skating on his reputation, rather than performance, when it comes to this award. (David Wright's going to have to hit Mayor Bloomberg in the forehead with an errant throw before the voters stop giving him the award, I think.)

Ichiro is another one. A right fielder with some speed and a good arm, he comes up +12 plays according to Dewan, which is nice, but only about sixth best in the A.L. Win Shares ranks him about 27th, and Baseball Prospectus gave him a -4, the first time in his career he's been below average for them.

Grady Sizemore...Well, you've got me. He shows up badly in two of the advanced metrics: -13 FRAA according to Baseball Prospectus, and not among the top 10 center fielders in +/-. Plus he's eighth in WS among the 14 A.L. teams, which is, of course, in the bottom half of the league.

He's sixth from the bottom in the majors in Range Factor but fourth best in Zone Rating. But he made only two errors and had a .997 fielding percentage, so I guess he gets the vote. Never mind the fact that he doesn't make errors, because he hardly ever makes, you know, plays.

The real injustice here is Carlos Gomez, who led all MLB center fielders in RF, ZR, and +/-, and came up a respectable sixth with 4.5 Win Shares. He's only 22 right now, so he's got time to win some awards.

Outfield (NL)

Carlos Beltran picked up his third consecutive award this year and deserved it, as he was second among MLB center fielders with a +23 mark, according to Dewan. He was also third in RF and ZR and fourth in fielding percentage.

The other two picks are oddballs. Shane Victorino was second among N.L. center fielders in ZR and third in fielding percentage, but dead last in Range Factor, presumably because he pitched behind a staff with a lot of groundball pitchers (Myers, Moyer, Blanton, and to some degree, Hamels).

Dewan has him as +10 plays, and Baseball Prospectus is consistent with that, giving him a +5 FRAA mark, (i.e. decent but far from the best in the league.)

When it comes to defense, though, being a tough llittle fireplug of a guy (Shane is 5'9", 160) and/or making flashy-looking plays goes a lot farther than, say, effortlessly getting to every single ball hit anywhere near you. Add a great nickname (and "the Flyin' Hawaiian" is one of the best I've heard in a long time) and you've got yourself a recipe for success.

The third N.L. outfielder selected, Nate McLouth, is positively baffling. If the players could run campaigns for and against each other, the smear ads against McLouth might read something like this:

Nate McLouth...

He says he made only one error all year, and that this was an unjust call because he never even touched the ball, but let's look at the evidence:

He was only 11th in Range Factor and 17th in Zone Rating (among 19 qualified MLB center fielders). He ranked 29th among all MLB outfielders in Win Shares, and there are only 30 teams!

Independendent watchdog group Baseball Prospectus rated him as 17 runs below average, and freelance auditor John Dewan labels him 40 plays below average, the worst defensive player at any position in all of MLB in 2008.

Nate McLouth: Wrong on Range Factor, wrong on Zone Rating, wrong on FRAA
and Win Shares and Plus/Minus.

Plus he'll raise your taxes and probably would have let Willie Horton out of jail, given the chance.

We can't afford to vote for Nate McLouth.

[I'm Chris Young, and I approved this message.]

Young, Brian Giles, and Willie Harris all had good years, according to Dewan, and Chris Young also led N.L. outfielders in defensive Win Shares, so he's the obvious alternative candidate.

Next week, we should start seeing the major awards given out, so I'll try to have some more commentary.

Have a good weekend!

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