Utah-TCU Preview: Turnovers, Special Teams Key to Monumental MWC Matchup

Regarding the special teams, we have to give a big nod to Utah.  Louie Sakoda is definitely one of the best all-around kickers in the country, if not the best.  He has also proven that he performs very well under pressure.

Sakoda should be able to keep the ball out of Aaron Brown’s hands on kickoffs, and since opponents are averaging only 2.5 yards per return on punts, the Horned Frogs cannot expect much there.

In fact, if Jeremy Kerley is not in the game, which seems likely, punt returns could be a big problem for TCU.  Last week, with Kerley not making the trip to Las Vegas, TCU fumbled three punts.

They certainly could not have had much time to work on this in the short week, so with Sakoda kicking, about the best strategy for the Frogs would simply be to plan on fair-catching everything. 

Kerley’s absence could also present two other problems for the Frogs. He is the holder on field goals and extra points, and he also is the primary element in the direct-snap “Wild Frog” formation.  Since they started using the direct snap, TCU’s offense has come alive—it has been the spark to ignite them.

However, if TCU wants to use the direct snap against the Utes, they could have to rely on true freshman Antoine Hicks, who has only touched the ball 17 times in his career.  In a tight game on the road, using him could invite a fumble.

So, as mentioned above, although TCU has a large turnover advantage, the absence of Kerley invites turnovers and miscues in three areas: punt returns, field goals/extra points, and the direct snap.

The Frogs do have an excellent punter in Anson Kelton and an equally good field goal kicker in Ross Evans.  However, these freshmen are untested and unproven since TCU has yet to really play a tight game against a big opponent.  In particular, if it comes down to a game of field goals, I would certainly not bet on TCU’s freshman over Louie Sakoda. 

An interesting note in regard to field goals is that there has only been one field goal kicked against TCU all year, and that was in the first game.  TCU has gone nine games without having a successful field goal kicked against them.

Finally, there is the weather.  If the temperature stays above 35 degrees, I don’t see it being a problem for TCU.  However, if the wind is blowing and the chill factor is low, then the boys from Cowtown could have trouble, especially passing the ball. If Mother Nature decides to turn things for the worse, I give the nod to Utah.

Overall, this game is too close to call.

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