Post-Election Week Football Picks

Mike RegisterContributor INovember 5, 2008

Last week I unveiled an experiment in using ESPN's Accuscore system to find and pick the best NFL games of the week. This week I've expanded to college football, and as a result, have found 19 games with positive EV. If you haven't read it yet, you can get the details of the system here: "Can ESPN Make You a Profitable Gambler."

Before we get to this week's picks, lets take a look at last week's results.

Texans over Vikings LOSS -$100

Patriots over Colts LOSS -$100

Packers over Titans LOSS -$100

Seahawks over Eagles LOSS -$100

Dolphins over Broncos WIN $160

Net: -$240

While 1-4 is not a good start, I am not discouraged. These teams were all underdogs and getting attractive odds.

I've made two changes to the experiment this week. First, I've included college football games as eligible to bet on. This came about when I discovered Accuscore has their own website (with a lot more info then what is provided from ESPN).

The second change is minor relative to our experiment. I've increased my theoretical bankroll to $5,000 from $1,000. This is more in line with proper money management rules concerning the size of the bet relative to the total bankroll.

Here is this week's picks:

Team                                                     Wager                   Win                        EV

Broncos (vs Browns)                       100                         145                         20.05

Packers (vs Vikings)                        100                         120                         14.40

Giants   (vs Eagles)                           100                         130                         17.30

49ers (vs Cardinals)                         100                         320                         17.60

Maryland (vs Virginia Tech)         100                         120                         23.20

Virginia (vs Wake Forest)              100                         155                         35.15

Stanford (vs Oregon)                     100                         425                         10.25

TCU (vs Utah)                                    100                         76.92                     18.54

NC State (vs Duke)                          100                         145                         32.30

Louisville (vs Pitt)                             100                         210                         36.40

Southern Miss (vs UCF)                 100                         62.5                        15.38

Arkansas St (vs FIU)                        100                         74.07                     16.63

Indiana (vs Wisconsin)                  100                         330                         46.20

NM State (vs Hawaii)                      100                         135                         36.30

Ohio (vs Bowling Green)                100                         140                         24.80

Colorado St (vs Air Force)             100                         310                         47.60

Iowa St (vs Colorado)                     100                         280                         40.60

LSU (vs Alabama)                             100                         130                         10.40

W Michigan (vs Illinois)                  100                         250                         36.50


These 19 picks have a combined Expected Value of $499.60.