Post-Election Week Football Picks
Last week I unveiled an experiment in using ESPN's Accuscore system to find and pick the best NFL games of the week. This week I've expanded to college football, and as a result, have found 19 games with positive EV. If you haven't read it yet, you can get the details of the system here: "Can ESPN Make You a Profitable Gambler."
Before we get to this week's picks, lets take a look at last week's results.
Texans over Vikings LOSS -$100
Patriots over Colts LOSS -$100
Packers over Titans LOSS -$100
Seahawks over Eagles LOSS -$100
Dolphins over Broncos WIN $160
While 1-4 is not a good start, I am not discouraged. These teams were all underdogs and getting attractive odds.
I've made two changes to the experiment this week. First, I've included college football games as eligible to bet on. This came about when I discovered Accuscore has their own website (with a lot more info then what is provided from ESPN).
The second change is minor relative to our experiment. I've increased my theoretical bankroll to $5,000 from $1,000. This is more in line with proper money management rules concerning the size of the bet relative to the total bankroll.
Here is this week's picks:
Team Wager Win EV
Broncos (vs Browns) 100 145 20.05
Packers (vs Vikings) 100 120 14.40
Giants (vs Eagles) 100 130 17.30
49ers (vs Cardinals) 100 320 17.60
Maryland (vs Virginia Tech) 100 120 23.20
Virginia (vs Wake Forest) 100 155 35.15
Stanford (vs Oregon) 100 425 10.25
TCU (vs Utah) 100 76.92 18.54
NC State (vs Duke) 100 145 32.30
Louisville (vs Pitt) 100 210 36.40
Southern Miss (vs UCF) 100 62.5 15.38
Arkansas St (vs FIU) 100 74.07 16.63
Indiana (vs Wisconsin) 100 330 46.20
NM State (vs Hawaii) 100 135 36.30
Ohio (vs Bowling Green) 100 140 24.80
Colorado St (vs Air Force) 100 310 47.60
Iowa St (vs Colorado) 100 280 40.60
LSU (vs Alabama) 100 130 10.40
W Michigan (vs Illinois) 100 250 36.50
These 19 picks have a combined Expected Value of $499.60.
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