Fantasy Football Sleeper or Bust? Knowshown Moreno's Value for 2011

Would the real Knowshon Moreno please step forward?

Are 2011 fantasy football players going to get the player who dominated the college ranks in 2007 and 2008, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and racking up 30 touchdowns? Or are we going to get the Knowshon Moreno that spends a frustrating amount of time on the sideline licking his wounds?

The fantasy football world has been watching Moreno closely since Josh McDaniels tabbed him in the early first round several years ago.

Running backs who are selected in the front half of the first round often come with heavy expectations from their NFL teams and from fantasy fans alike.

Moreno failed to set the world on fire in his first two years as a pro, and he sent many hopeful fantasy owners scrambling into the corner to lick their wounds.

Adding to the perception of falling fantasy value, John Fox and John Elway have taken over the plush office chairs in Denver. Fox is not married to Moreno as his primary tailback due to the fact that McDaniels drafted him.  

Rumors have been running rampant, fed by quotes from Denver's front office, that the Broncos will spend big money in free agency at the running back position.

So, the question becomes:

• What value does Knowshon Moreno have in 2011?
• And where should we have him in our fantasy football rankings?

We'll start with Coach Fox and work backwards. Fox is smart to invest in the running game. His offensive philosophy benefits greatly when the threat of a running game is strong.

I realize that statement is a bit like saying, "Gardens benefit from rain and rich soil" but the fact remains that the running game is especially important to John Fox.  Remember, he spent a considerable amount of his salary budget on two first-round rushers in Carolina.

Fox will also have to endure Tim Tebow's first full years as an NFL quarterback. Tebow is talented, and is likely to be a solid pro, but it would be foolish to think that there will not be bumps in the road.

Keeping defenses from dropping into exotic coverage packages by staying in a run-heavy offense will allow Tebow an easier transition.

This is all a long way of saying that Fox's statements about wanting to add a running back are likely less an indictment on Moreno, and more about the fact that the Broncos will need to grind out wins with multiple running backs due to having a leaky defense and a young passer.

All of that said, I believe that Denver may have also been looking at the stats that I have been reviewing.

Take a look:

DATE	OPP	ATT	YDS	TD	REC	YDS	TD	FUM	FP	FP/OPP
09/12/10	Jaguars	15	60	1	1	4	0	0	13	0.8
09/19/10	Seahawks	24	51	1	4	67	0	1	15.1	0.5
10/17/10	Jets	12	48	0	0	0	0	1	4.8	0.4
10/24/10	Raiders	14	53	0	3	37	2	0	20.3	1.2
10/31/10	49ers	11	40	0	4	19	0	0	8	0.5
11/14/10	Chiefs	22	106	0	3	50	1	0	19.6	0.8
11/22/10	Chargers	13	58	1	7	62	0	0	18.8	0.9
11/28/10	Rams	12	56	1	6	62	0	1	17.6	1.0
12/05/10	Chiefs	23	161	0	1	14	0	0	17.1	0.7
12/12/10	Cardinals	19	81	1	5	32	0	0	19.1	0.8
12/19/10	Raiders	4	5	0	1	1	0	0	1.5	0.3
12/26/10	Texans	7	19	0	1	22	0	0	2.9	0.4
01/02/10	Chargers	6	41	0	1	2	0	0	5.1	0.7
TOTALS		182	779	5	37	372	3	3	162.9	0.70

2010 Statistical Highlights

• Moreno's most valuable fantasy football games came when he was used heavily in the passing attack.
• When catching more than five passes, Moreno's fantasy points per opportunity is 0.8+ … an elite number for fantasy RBs.
• The last three weeks of the season were lost weeks for the Bronco offense. By that time, McDaniels had flaked and the entire offense was turned on its head. If you throw those games out, Moreno had an average FP/OPP of 7.6, which is strong.
• Moreno has shown that, if needed, he can carry the mail.  He had three 20+ carry games in 2010 and delivered 100+ yard rushing performances in two of those.
• When Moreno plays the Chiefs, look out! Last season he had two monster games them. He piled up 175 all-purpose yards on Dec. 5 and 156 all-purpose yards on Nov. 11. 
• From a fantasy football analyst's point of view - Moreno is at his best when he sees 12 to 15 carries per game and 5 or more passes.  His sure hands, speed, and his ability to make plays in space become dangerous weapons for Denver's passing attack.

Likely Depth Chart Scenario for 2011:  Denver brings in a stronger between-the-tackles runner, that can take some of the physical pounding off of Moreno.  They will ask him to focus more on improving his blocking and blitz pickups and will use him heavily on third down and obvious passing scenarios.  

Moreno will likely see most of his work between the 20s, which is not great news for fantasy football players because it means less opportunity for the easy touchdown.

Fantasy Football Advice for 2011

• Moreno is most valuable in PPR leagues, where he is a viable RB2 and strong RB3.
• In standard formats that award no points for receptions, Moreno is a risky RB3 and solid RB4.
• If the Broncos fail to sign a premier complement at RB. Moreno becomes a solid RB2 in all formats, and would bump up most draft boards.
• Should he stay reasonably healthy, Moreno should catch 50+ passes in 2011.  I like him to go for 500+ receiving yards, and 1100+ all purpose yards.
• He is likely to score less than he did in 2010, however.  I only project four to six touchdowns in 2011.