Mitch's Week 11 College Football Picks Part Two

Mitch Wilson@sportschatplaceSenior Writer INovember 4, 2008

We have Wednesday night college football that has meaning this week.

Now, a lot of these weekday games seem to be just tests to see how addicted are we to the game we love, college football, but Wednesday's games look like someone actually cares. It's like they put these games on Wednesday so we all get a chance to see them.

Being Wednesday, the picks have gone out for my free picking contest and if you aren't part of it you still have plenty of time to sign up. Last week's winner was Dave Darby who showed that it's all about quality over quantity as he didn't have the best record but racked up the most confidence points.

In any event we have some games to talk about and a lot of ground to cover this week so let's get to it.

Toledo +6 1/2 at Akron (Wednesday 11/5/08, 8 EST) 4 out of 10

It's clear that Akron is the better team by record alone, but are they nearly a touchdown better than the Toledo Rockets—I just don't think so. While Toledo is has just a 2-6 overall record, they are a respectable 4-4 against the spread and have been in just about all of their games that they have lost.

Akron has played a softer schedule and suffer from what I like to call "Illinois syndrome;" where they have one good week followed by a bad week, last week they had a good week. Three of Toledo's last losses come against the powerhouse schools of the MAC in Ball State, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan.

Akron has not been involved in a game where the final margin of victory one way or another was greater than seven points since September 20th.

While Akron may be better statistically, their strength of schedule doesn't quite stack up. The Zips are also horrible against the run ranking last in the MAC and and 112th in the country. Akron also is 97th in the country in yards allowed.

While Toledo's coach Tom Amstutz is playing out the season as a lame duck, his players like him and want to send him out well. Toledo has covered the last five times they played Akron though the bulk of the games were well beyond a relevant time frame.

While I don't love the game and don't think I would be playing it if it weren't on a Wednesday, I'll take a small shot with Toledo.

Go here for 5 more of Mitch's week 11 part 2 College Football Picks against the spread