MLB Trade Deadline: Grading 2010's Biggest Deals

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The earth has revolved once around the sun since last year's MLB trading deadline, and the time has come for a bit of premature review and evaluation. So follow me, friends, through the swampy netherworld of last year. We'll decipher winners and losers and learn some real valuable life lessons on the way (hint: don't trade Wilson Ramos).

Why?

Because if we don't learn from history, then we are doomed to...ooooh, look...a Russian ground war!

July 9: Rangers Lasso Lee

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Rangers get: LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Mark Lowe

Mariners get: 1B Justin Smoak, RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke, 2B Matt Lawson

If the Rangers re-signed Lee, this move would have been an unqualified success. But they didn’t, which leaves us with a tricky bit of evaluation. The Rangers gave up their best prospect (Smoak) for a pitcher they no longer employ. That stinks. It stinks hard.

Then again, Lee led the franchise to their first World Series and rejuvenated an organization mired in financial disgrace. That has to be worth something. Without Lee, it’s unlikely the Rangers would have advanced past their first-round series with Tampa Bay, much less their ALCS tilt against the Yankees. And since then the Rangers have gathered some serious momentum. From the looks of things, this franchise could stay atop their division for the next five years. That’s some serious mojo.

Grade for the Rangers: B-

Let’s be clear; the Mariners had to make this trade. From the looks of things, the Mariners had absolutely no shot at resigning Lee, and they got value for him while they still could. From the Mariners' perspective, the relevant comparison is who we traded to get Lee vs. who we got when we traded Lee. And on that ledger, I think the Mariners did swimmingly. Of the three prospects the Mariners traded to the Phillies for Lee, only Phillippe Aumont seems to have a real future at the big league level. And after a disastrous stint as a starter, the Phillies best hope for him seems to be back-end bullpen arm. Not exactly premium quality.

Compare that to what the Mariners now have: a future starter at first base and two big-league quality arms. Smoak is still finding himself with the big club, but a 110 OPS+ isn’t a terrible place to start. There’s still plenty of reason to think he can excel. Between Beaven and Lueke, Beavan is the one to watch. He’s a control guy with rotation potential. Considering that the Mariners had to make a trade, I’d say they made a pretty good one.

Grade for the Mariners: B

July 14: Escobar Season Will Not Return (to Atlanta)

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Braves get: SS Alex Gonzalez, SS Tyler Pastornicky, LHP Tim Collins

Blue Jays get: SS Yunel Escobar, LHP Jo-Jo Reyes

The Braves quickly dealt Collins to the Royals for two players (Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth) no longer with the club, so ignore his inclusion in the deal.

From the onset, this seemed like an odd deal for the Braves. It felt personality-driven more than anything. Bobby Cox, in his last season, didn’t want to deal with the petulant Escobar anymore, so the Braves dealt him for a mediocre veteran.

And as a Brave, Gonzalez has been exactly that: mediocre. He played well enough last year, but his hitting has continued to slip in 2011, and that .263 OBP must give Braves fans ulcers. If not for his still-excellent defense, Gonzalez would be a total loss. The only saving grace for the Braves is Pastornicky, who is hitting .300/.344/.417 as a 21-year-old at AA. He’s got starter potential. But so far it’s just that: potential. If Pastornicky bombs, this could rank as one of the worst trades in recent Braves history.

Braves grade: C-

Between this trade and the Jose Bautista extension, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous deserves a generous helping of Toronto’s best poutine. Halfway through 2011, it looks like the Blue Jays nabbed one of the best young shortstops in baseball for a bargain basement price. Escobar is hitting .292 with 9 HR and has already accumulated 3.0 WAR this season, first among all American League shortstops. At a position starved for talent, Escobar has superstar potential.

Blue Jays grade: A

July 25: Haren Heads West

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Angels get: RHP Dan Haren

Diamondbacks get: LHP Joe Saunders, LHP Pat Corbin, RHP Rafael Rodriguez, LHP Tyler Skaggs

If you trade four things for one thing, that one thing better be a really awesome thing. Dan Haren is an awesome thing. Before this year I might not have been so bullish, but it’s only because I wasn’t paying close enough attention.

Even though his Angels team faded out of the playoff picture, Haren played well last year and has continued that stellar play in 2011. He and fellow ace Jered Weaver have kept the Halos in the AL West race, and Haren owns the league’s best K:BB ratio, along with a sub-1 WHIP. The Angels, who own Haren’s rights for 2012 with a team option for 2013, can now entertain playoff aspirations for at least the next couple of seasons. That said, the Angels did a pay a price for their dart-throwing ace. More on that below...

Angels grade: B+

Saunders, the elder statesman in this deal, is simply a stopgap while the Diamondbacks build their young core. True, Saunders has played well enough this year (bolstered by an unsustainably  low BABIP) for a surprising D-Baks squad, but Skaggs and Corbin hold the keys to the future. At age 21, Corbin has turned in a fine year at AA Mobile with a sub 4 ERA and a tantalizing 97:21 K:BB ratio in 118 IP. But Corbin is just the appetizer. Skaggs, also at AA, just turned 20 last week and has dominated the much older competition in the Southern league.

To this point, the left-handed Skaggs has 131 Ks in just 104 innings and has drawn comparisons to a young Cole Hamels. His control could use some work, but those are the type of statistics that have D-Backs fans drooling. Both Corbin and Skaggs have rotation potential. Not a bad haul.

Diamondbacks grade: B

July 28: Jhonny Is Ghonny

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Tigers get: INF Jhonny Peralta

Indians get: LHP Giovanni Soto

It doesn’t seem so long ago that the Indians were in the 2007 ALCS, one game from the World Series, and Jhonny Peralta was their 25-year-old shortstop of the future. And then, things fell apart for Peralta and the Tribe.

After posting a solid 2008, Peralta faltered in 2009 and the early part of 2010. Peralta, never a defensive wizard, had lost his pop, and the Indians were eager to explore other options (Asdrubal Cabrera) in the middle infield.

Things turned out OK for the Indians because of Cabrera’s ascendancy, but I still think they regret this move. Peralta could have been a perfect fit at third base for the surprising Indians this year. Instead, he’s regained his hitting stroke for the Tigers, their biggest competition. In the Indians' minds I think Peralta's connection to the '07 team hurt his standing. Symbolically and statistically, his declining play shaddowed the rapid implosion of that promising team (Lee, Sabathia, Peralta, Martinez, Sizemore, Hafner, and...suddenly...nothing). The Indians wanted to start over, and Peralta reeked of the past.

As a result, the Indians bailed on a versatile defender entering his hitting prime. The prospect they gained, Giovanni Soto, has registered a very nice year in High A as a 20-year-old (3.02 ERA, 9.2 Ks per 9), but for the Indians, who are suddenly in win-now mode, this move must sting a bit.

Indians grade: B-

Tigers grade: B+

July 29: Roy Meet Roy

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Phillies get: RHP Roy Oswalt

Astros get: LHP J.A. Happ, SS Jonathan Villar, OF Anthony Gose

Phillies fans seem to think that Houston GM (and former Phils GM) Ed Wade is a pandering idiot, good for a lopsided deal whenever the Phils need one. Here’s the problem with the perception:  it’s not true.

This story begins with the offseason trade that sent Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies for Michael Bourn, Anthony Costanzo and Geoff Geary. Phils fans will recall that their team won the ‘ship the next year largely because of Lidge’s heroics.

But in the long run, the Astros made out like kings. Lidge is sidelined, Bruntlett retired and Michael Bourn, largely because of his exceptional baserunning and stellar defense, is one of the most valuable center fielders in all of baseball (3.6 WAR). The Astros needed long-term help, the Phillies needed short-term relief, and both teams got what they needed.

Now, use those same lenses to evaluate last year’s blockbuster deal. The Astros unloaded a ton of salary (even after sending the Phillies some cash) and got some pretty good prospects in return. Happ has struggled this year, and may never truly flourish at the big league level because of his control issues, but still has rotation stalwart stuff. Villar’s bat has failed him this year in AA, but he’s still just 21 and ranked No. 94 on Baseball America’s prospect list before this year. Gose is the real prize here, a 20-year-old speedster who has established himself as a future stud in AA this year.

The bad news? Wade traded Gose for the more polished Brett Wallace. And although Wallace has been fine this year at first base for the Astros, his lack of power at a premium hitting position must concern the organization moving forward.

The Phillies, again, got just what they needed last year. Recall, when they acquired Oswalt, they were 4.5 games behind the pace in the NL East. With Oswalt dominating down the stretch, they cruised past the Braves en route to the best record in baseball and a third consecutive NLCS appearance. This year, Oswalt’s balky back began to fail him in more ominous tones, and the fourth wheel of the Phillies’ fearsome starting rotation appears closer to retirement than expected. Not the best return the Phillies could have hoped for in the trade, but at least Oswalt proved valuable last year (and may prove himself again this fall).

Astros grade: B-

Phillies grade: B+

July 29: Gose Goes North

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Astros get:  1B Brett Wallace

Blue Jays get: OF Anthony Gose


Ed Wade, nooooooooooooooooo!!! You had him, for a fleeting moment, you had him. And you LET 'EM OFF THE HOOK. I’m sorry, Astros fans, but a slap-hitting first baseman is not worth the second coming of Michael Bourn. With Gose and Bourn in the outfield, the ball would never touch the grass. Now, it’ll never touch the turf...in Toronto....gahh!

Astros grade: D

Blue Jays grade: A

July 29: The Wilson Ramos Heist

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Twins get: RHP Matt Capps

Nationals get: C Wilson Ramos, LHP Joe Testa

There are only a handful of human beings in the world who are both capable of playing catcher at a big-league level and hitting at a big-league level. They are a precious commodity, not to be squandered on middling relief help. I understand that Joe Mauer negated Ramos’ usefulness from the Twins’ perspective, but surely the Twins could have gotten more for the young stud than Matt Capps. Capps has been a disaster for Minnesota this year, posting a 4.76 ERA and an unsightly 4.8 Ks per 9.

Ramos, once billed as a future all-star catcher, has looked every bit the part during his first full season on the Nats. Ramos quickly supplanted Ivan Rodriguez as the everyday catcher, showing the budding power and defensive prowess that made him such a hot prospect. And to think, the Nats sacrificed nothing more than a one-year-loan reliever. As a result, the Nats can now add Ramos to their ridiculously rich young core, a list that includes Bryce Harper, Stephen Strausburg, Anthony Rendon,  Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman,  Jordan Zimmerman, Tom Milone, Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond. With that group, the Nats could challenge for a NL East title within the next three years. Well played, Mike Rizzo.

Twins grade: C-
Nats grade: A+

July 30: The Snake Strikes Again

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White Sox get: RHP Edwin Jackson

Diamondbacks: RHP Dan Hudson, LHP David Holmberg

No matter how good we think Edwin Jackson could or should be, the time has come to accept that he won’t ever become a top-of-the-rotation superstar. He just won’t. He’s played in parts of nine big league seasons, thrown almost exactly 1,000 innings and has a career ERA of 4.54. At age 27, he already is what he is, a decent fourth or fifth option. White Sox GM Kenny Williams fell in love with Jackson’s stuff and thought he could be more. One year later, he’s already looking to deal the hurler for offensive help at the 2011 deadline. Jackson has had a good enough year—3.97 ERA, 2.61 K:BB ratio—but it’s clear he’s no one’s future ace.

Instead, the future ace belongs to Arizona. Hudson has been a revelation during his first year in the desert, posting a 10-5 record, a 3.56 ERA, a 3.4 K:BB ratio, and sparkling 2.88 FIP. And he’s only 24. If Hudson maintains his current trajectory, this trade could go down as an all-time steal. What’s more, Holmberg has handled the transition from Rookie ball to Single A with ease, demonstrating the sort of pinpoint control that have some comparing the 19-year-old to a young Brett Anderson. Soon enough, the Diamondbacks could have both big time arms alongside Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton and the rest of their young fleet. And the Diamondbacks sacrificed almost nothing to get them.

White Sox grade: D -

Diamondbacks grade: A+

July 31: Berkman to the Bronx

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Yankees get: 1B/DH/OF Lance Berkman

Astros get: RHP Mark Melancon, 2B Jimmy Paredes

Timing is everything in the trade market, and the Astros missed their cue with Berkman. Instead of holding onto the underachieving star and exercising his club option for 2011, they sold low midway through 2010. Presumably they thought Berkman was done and wouldn’t command much by mid-2011. And were they ever wrong.

Imagine if the Astros had Berkman now. Even with only half a year left on his contract, teams would be begging Houston for the switch-hitter’s services. He’s only  leading the NL in slugging percentage and OPS +. Instead, the Astros got Paredes, a solid middle infield prospect with some pop but little plate discipline, and Melancon, a decent reliever masquerading as the Astros closer.

For their trouble, the Yankees didn’t get much out of Berkman. They’re probably wishing they’d exercised his club option, but it’s hard to blame them for cutting their losses with a player who hit just one home run in 37 regular season games with the club.

Astros grade: C

Yankees grade: C

July 31: Going All in and Wiping out

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Padres get:OF Ryan Ludwick

Cardinals get:  RHP Jake Westrbook, LHP Nick Greenwood

Indians get: RHP Corey Kluber

Isn’t it great when two contenders find a way to trade assets in such a way that it satisfies both of their immediate needs? No, no it isn’t. At least not in this case.

The Cardinals needed an arm and instead got Jake Westbrook of the Indians, a right-handed hurler who performed decently down the stretch last year and has fallen flat on his face in 2011. The Padres needed a middle of the order bat and instead got Ryan Ludwick, an aging outfielder who left his pop in St. Louis and managed to play a full win below replacement level during the Padres’ heart-wrenching collapse last year.

So maybe the Indians got the better of the two contenders? Wrong again. Former Padres prospect Kluber has followed up a promising 2010 campaign with an absolute stinker at AAA Columbus this year. Move along; no winners to see here.

Padres grade: D

Cardinals grade: D

Indians grade: C (at least they unloaded salary)

July 31: When Losers Find Losers, Together, They Lose

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Dodgers get: LHP Ted Lilly, 2B/SS Ryan Theriot

Cubs get: 2B Blake DeWitt, RHP Brett Wallach, RHP Kyle Smit

This trade is thoroughly pathetic, from every angle. Somehow, these two teams—both in protracted denial about the health of their franchises—found a way to perpetuate their self-delusion by swapping overpaid veterans and flaccid prospects. The Dodgers seemed to think they were in the race last year and that the addition of a fourth starter and a role player would propel them past their competition. The Cubs seemed to think a punchless young second baseman (already relegated to the bench) would fit nicely into their rebuilding plans alongside two marginal pitching prospects.

At least the Cubs went with youth and finally admitted defeat, albeit not gracefully. The Dodgers, on the other hand, refused to quit despite being seven games out of first place and now owe Ted Lilly $29.5 million over the next three years for their trouble. Oh yeah, and Lily has full no-trade protection. Go ahead, Dodgers fans, scream into your pillow.

Cubs grade: C-

Dodgers grade: D

July 31: Lefty to the Left Coast

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Giants get: LHP Javier Lopez

Pirates get: RHP Joe Martinez, OF John Bowker

Championships are made of subtleties, little details that make big differences in bursts of statistical insignificance. This deadline deal is just such a subtlety, a small move that bolstered the Giants ‘pen in a big way. Lopez excelled in his role as a lefty specialist, allowing just one hit in 6.2 postseasons innings. To get him, the Giants paid very little, and Lopez continues to reward them with stellar play in the late innings.

Giants grade: A -

Pirates grade: C

July 31: The Dodgers Just Can’t Let Go

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Dodgers get: RHP Octavio Dotel

Pirates get: RHP James McDonald, OF Andrew Lambo

As was made clear earlier, the Dodgers thought they were going to win something last year. So they went ahead and traded a couple of once-great prospects for a once-good reliever. OK, so Dotel is still decent. But does it really matter? If either McDonald or Lambo makes inroads at the big league level, the Pirates got a total steal here. If not, they still didn’t give up much.

Between the two, I’d peg McDonald as the more likely success story. He’s wild and frustrating to watch at times, but he’s held his own as a big league starter and generates a fair number of swings-and-misses.

Dodgers grade: C -

Pirates grade: B

Jul 31: Guy with Perfect Name for Boston Accent Heads to Boston

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Red Sox get: C Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Rangers get: 1B Chris McGuiness, RHP Roman Mendez, C Michael Thomas

I’m not sure where it all went wrong for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but it’s pretty clear at this point he’s not the catching superstar everyone thought he would be. Still, he’s a serviceable big league player for the Red Sox with some residual untapped potential under the surface. And the Red Sox didn’t give up too much to land him.

McGuiness, who surged in 2010, has had a terribly disappointing 2011, and Thomas was never a real prospect to begin with. Mendez has stuff the Rangers can dream on, and he’s doing a fine job missing bats as a 20-year-old in Single A. If he can carry that success through the levels, the Rangers might at least get some major league returns on this deal.

Red Sox grade: B-

Rangers grade: C+