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This may be a surprise considering our credo of unpredictability, but FanMan was born in a pool of bubbling oversaturation.

It’s a long story that involves angry 2,000 word e-mails, ignored phone calls, countless hours of research and more than a few frustration-induced headaches. Long story short, just know that the page you’re currently reading was originally planned as something much more tangible.

Conceived on paper and later translated to the internet in multiple incarnations, TheFanManifesto was born as a post-April Major League Baseball Preview Magazine. The same type of thing that you can find in droves on Hudson News shelves at LaGuardia Airport. The same type of thing that almost never leaves said shelves, a victim of countless store goers who promptly return the publication once they’ve flipped to the page about their favorite team.

Several months and some fortunate reconsideration later, that ill-conceived magazine has undergone a thorough metamorphosis. From online baseball preview to sparsely visited blog. From 404 Error Page and into the Site for the Educated Sports Fan (and at technologically-troubled times, back again).

TheFanManifesto is here to stay, with no future restructurings or reinventions planned. But that doesn’t mean that FanMan has forgotten its roots. And it certainly doesn’t mean that it’s forgotten about the past.

89b728895d1208a_crop_340x234 Does anyone actually buy these anymore?

With this piece begins our newest feature, entitled “We Said it, You Read it, and it May Have Happened.” Known from here on out as “WSYR,” the series will look back and review any past FanMan comments that we deem worthy of a revisiting. Some pieces may deal with FanMan recovering from a self-inflicted case of Foot in the Mouth, while others will see us touting our soothsaying capabilities.

This is one of those times. For an entity originally designed as a preview magazine, FanMan does very little prognostication. More often, we discuss the faulty prognostications of others, thereby avoiding risk and taking credit for reward at the sametime. But make no mistake about it: we will be wrong at times, and we will admit it when we are. If you need proof unto that statement, look no further than this (albeit well-written) monstrosity. Although, in our own defense, LeBron and the Heat can still set their sights on six rings.

While FanMan’s baseball preview was eventually abandoned, we stuck with it long enough to complete a full-fledged, 10,000 word evaluation of the AL East. That piece can be found in our still-poorly formatted May 2011 archives. Despite its aesthetic unseemliness, it’s an entertaining read and prologue for the ego-flexing you're about to delve into.

Yes, it’s gone that well. So here we go.

 

Current AL East Standings

1. Boston Red Sox, on pace for 99 wins

2. New York Yankees, on pace for 97 wins

3. Tampa Bay Rays, on pace for 88 wins

4. Toronto Blue Jays, on pace for 79 wins

5. Baltimore Orioles, on pace for 67 wins


FanMan Post April AL East Preview

1. Boston Red Sox, 96-66, correct finish, difference of three wins.

2. New York Yankees, 91-61, correct finish, difference of six wins.

3. Tampa Bay Rays, 88-74, correct finish, different of zero wins.

4. Baltimore Orioles, 74-88, incorrect finish, difference of seven wins.

5. Toronto Blue Jays, 72-90, incorrect finish, difference of seven wins.

Where will the Sox finish in 2011?

Submit Vote vote to see results

We wrote that the Red Sox would turn it around after their 0-6 start, that Josh Beckett would have a stellar bounce back year, that their offense would turn it around after a reprehensible April. We wrote that Marco Scutaro would continue to suck, that the Carl Crawford signing would prove to be ill-advised, but helpful in the short term.

You read it, and all of it happened. The Red Sox are in first place in baseball’s best division. Beckett has a 2.27 ERA. Adrian Gonzalez looks like the superhuman MVP candidate everyone thought he would be.  Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury are all healthy—both anatomically and offensively. Crawford returns fromm injury this week, and while beneficial short-term impact is still in play, no one has stuck around to debate the merits of $142,000,000 worth of infield singles. Most of all, Marco Scutaro has upheld his propensity to suck.

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We wrote that the Yankees had too many question marks, that there was absolutely no way Bartolo Colon would stay healthy and Cy Young-like for more than a couple of months, that the prognosis was similar for Freddy Garcia, that Ivan Nova was overrated, and that Phil Hughes' injury was a bigger concern than anyone was letting on. We wrote that AJ Burnett’s solid but unspectacular start wasn’t anything resembling reason for excitement. Lastly, we wrote that with just one reliable pitcher, the Yanks needed to make a deal for an ace at the deadline if they wanted to make a run in the playoffs.

Bartolo-colon_crop_340x234 The Yankees' playoff hopes are riding on those thighs.

You read it, and once again, it all happened. CC Sabathia has put his name in the middle of the Cy Young conversation along with exactly zero other Yankees. Garcia has still been solid, but is far removed from his spectacular start. Ivan Nova has a 4.12 ERA that’s only that low thanks to two stellar stars in his last three times out. Phil Hughes picked up his first win of the season on Sunday. AJ Burnett continues to be maddeningly average. Colon’s last start ended faster than his usual morning jog, which is kind of like saying it never really began. Which his prior few starts actually didn’t, as Colon’s hamstrung corpse rotted on the disabled list.

 

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We wrote that the Rays' pitching was great, but that their offense was so undeniably mediocre that it would outweigh their baseball-throwing prowess and their fast start. We wrote that the early awesomeness of Casey Kotchman, Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce and Zombie Johnny Damon was a complete mirage and that BJ Upton would continue to be a disappointment. We wrote that, outside of an injured Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist was the brightest spot in the Rays lineup, mostly because John Jaso and everyone else sucked.

It all happened. Sam Fuld has a sub-.240 AVG and a sub .300 OBP. Ditto for Reid Brignac and John Jaso. Johnny Damon isn’t much better at .277/.325/.425. Matt Joyce’s stats still appear solid, but his average has dropped more than 70 points over the last 30 games. Casey Kotchman’s line stats have been steadily impressive, but a lack of power at the first base position is always a concern. If you need any anecdotal evidence, the Rays compiled three hits in 16 hair-tearing out innings last night against Boston.

As for the concern of the hitting outweighing the pitching, the Rays are currently 13th in the MLB in HRs, 23rd in AVG, 22nd in OBP, 14 in SLG and 15th in R. Meanwhile, their ERA is just 11th in the league. They’re third in the MLB in WHIP, but then again they’re also third in the AL East.

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We wrote that the Blue Jays were on the right track, that GM Alex Anthopolous had done the impossible by unloading Wells and Rios. We wrote that Adam Lind was on track again, that Anthopolous had gotten an absolute steal when he swapped Alex Gonzalez for Yunel Escobar, that Jose Molina sucks. We wrote that Brandon Morrow still has promise and great stuff despite a relatively high ERA, that the Jays have a stable of quality but unspectacular and nameless arms in the bullpen, and that they have a gem in the rotation Ricky Romero.

Do we need to enumerate just how bad Wells and Rios have been? Meanwhile, Adam Lind looks like the breakout player we saw in 2009, posting a stellar 16 HR, 52 RBI, .304/.353/.513 line thus far in 2011. Yunel Escobar was worth more than three wins in the first half, while Alex Gonzalez was worth less than one. Jose Molina will always suck. Brandon Morrow’s ERA continues to hover in the fours, while everyone waxes poetic over his breaking ball. Six Toronto relievers have ERAs under 3.5, and Ricky Romero has a 3.18 ERA and a stellar-for-a-starter sub-1.30 WHIP.

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We wrote that everyone was fawning over Buck Showalter after just 50 games, and that they weren't concerned enough over the lackluster production from their supposed cornerstone trio of Jones, Markakis and Wieters. We wrote how the Orioles should be excited at the prospect of Zack Britton but extremely concerned over the struggles of Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen. We wrote that Derrek Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds were all place-holding acquisitions at best, and that Brian Roberts was on his last legs. We wrote that the jury is still out on Jake Arrieta.

The jury is still out on Jake Arrieta. Bergesen and Tillman have been horrible. Britton was solid before being sent down to forestall his inevitable free agency. And yes, everything else proved true as well.

Adam Jones continues to be masterfully disappointing, showing glimmers of his five-tool potential with 14 HRs and a .284 AVG that’s weighed down by a .325 OBP and 67 SOs. The much-heralded Matt Wieters is batting .263 with an equally middling .326 OBP. The ashes of Guerrero, Lee and Reynolds continue to smolder in the clubhouse. Brian Roberts has a truly anemic .221/.273/.331 line in just 39 games. Nick Markakis has just eight home runs and 39 RBI, despite posting totals of 23 HR and 112 RBI in 2007 and 18 HR and 101 RBI in 2009.

Turns out the only thing we were wrong about was saying Buck’s value has never properly been appraised. It’s official: he’s insanely overrated. Suck Bowhalter, forever and for always.

Not bad, huh? Still 70 games left, though. And by the time October rolls around, you could find yourself reading a WSYR in which FanMan struggles to dislodge the foot from its mouth.

Jesse Golomb writes for Baseball Digest and is its All-Time Teams Guru. He is the creator and writer of The Fan Manifesto, a website for the educated sports fan. He can be followed on Twitter @TheFanManifesto or contacted by email at JesseGolomb@TheFanManifesto.com.