Junichi Tazawa Scouting Report

What to take from the video

This is clearly a day when Tazawa was on his stuff. In the video, he strikes out five of six batters shown, but his realistic strikeout rate is far less than that. The video is against lesser competition, which further muddles the expected transition, as NPB players are often scrutinized for their competition, and that is the highest level of Japanese baseball.

Tazawa got a few strike calls in the video that would make even Greg Maddux blush, however, an important thing to do rather than judging a pitcher on strike/ball ratio, is to watch his catcher before the pitch, and where he sets up, and then view where the pitch ends up. A hard concept for novice baseball fans to understand is that often time’s pitchers throw balls on purpose.

Tazawa hits his spots about 75 percent of the time in the video, and most of his more blatant misses are either off the plate, or in the correct direction (further outside on an outside setup, more inside on an inside setup, lower on a low setup, higher on a high setup.)

Tazawa shows excellent control of his curveball and throws a slider near the end that conjures images of Rob Nen.

Near the beginning of the video, Tazawa throws a curveball which causes worry. It was either hung, or a “get-me-over” curve, but in the major leagues, several hitters would have parked that pitch a dozen rows deep in left field.

Tazawa’s height isn’t as big an issue in Japan, though most major-league pitchers are over six feet tall, Tazawa’s three-quarters delivery should effectively maintain inconsistency in eye level, especially with the vertical movement of his curveball.

In summation…

To sign Tazawa to a contract in the range of even $5-6 million annually would be foolish. With no posting fee, it would seem to be a bargain, but Tazawa is fundamentally no different than a Latino amateur.

Though he’s seemingly more polished than an average 22-year-old pitcher, it may take a year or two for him to reach the majors, especially at an effective level.

His level of competition is in question, and while he’s played levels of professional baseball, he hasn’t even faced the best his country has to offer. He’s still young and will have time to earn his money.

A reasonable price for Tazawa is probably in the range of $3-6 million, perhaps incentive laden, and in the form of a signing bonus.

This is not to say that he won’t get more, but he’ll do so from a team which doesn’t spend wisely.

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