In a reversal of roles, Brock Lesnar is now even or more heavily favored than Randy Couture among most on-line betting sites.
I'm not a gambler, but like any other fan of MMA, I like to take everything into account before I look into my own crystal ball and put my predictions out there. Certainly on-line betting sites have accuracy in their best interest, as their living depends on it. I'd like to ask a few questions to those of you who know a little more about how these betting lines work and how they change.
Why have the odds reversed? When this fight was first announced, Lesnar was the underdog. What's different now? Does it have more to do with sharp money coming in on Lesnar or are there intangibles that the rest of us aren't privy to? Does it have anything to do with under-the-radar news from training camps, further evaluation of the stylistic match-up or is reality simply setting in that Couture simply HAS to be in the twilight of his career?
Perhaps it doesn't have anything to do with Couture. Is it because Brock is starting to look more and more like he really will be a force to be reckoned with?
If I was a betting man, I'd guess the lines merely fluctuate by how much money is coming in on each fighter. If this is the case, why do you think Lesnar is such a favorite in the minds of those folks brave enough to put their money where there mouth is?
Lastly, does this play right into Randy's game? How often have we seen Couture win when he wasn't supposed to? If memory serves, it's something like... every time.
12 comments Last one added 8 months ago — Leave a Comment
Brian Oswald 8 months ago
Great little piece of breaking news Brad. And great questions. I for one will jump on the train that says this plays right into Randy's hand; but I am biased.
It does show that people are putting their money on Brock though; like you said how the money is coming in on each fighter. Alot of that is based on their perception; which they get from their friends, the media, etc.
But its definitely not faulty logic. Brock very well could dominate Randy. With each passing fight the odds are less and less in his favor to do what he is supposed to do. At some point Couture WONT WIN when he wasn't supposed to. When that happens he should retire.
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Jeremy Botter 8 months ago
You're completely right. The lines do fluctuate based on who the money is coming in on. When the line was first announced with Lesnar as a mild underdog, a TON of money came in on him in Vegas. It kept coming in for a few weeks and the line kept shifting, until eventually Lesnar was the favorite. I think the line is going to stay so close until fight night that neither guy will be considered a good or bad play, which is a rarity in MMA betting.
Strangely enough, the fact that Brock is now the favorite caused me to re-think my Lesnar prediction. I was positive that Lesnar would likely win, but we all know how Randy performs when he's the underdog.
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Brad 8 months ago
Why do you think so much money came in on him when the line was first announced? Is it just because his name is so famous or do you think his win over Heath Herring was enough to convince a lot of people he was for real? I'm a Lesnar fan, but I would never bet my hard-earned money against Randy. Everyone knows he has a field day with that.
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Uncle-Joe S 8 months ago
I picked Couture to win the second the fight was first talked about, and my pick hasn't changed since.
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Drew 8 months ago
Lesnar is one of the strongest pound per pound fighters in the UFC. I have never said that about a heavyweight in any sport. He has an enormous physical advantage. He probably has the wrestling advantage as well do to the fact that often strength = skill. Couture is a more skilled wrestler but try to out grapple a national champion who is much stronger then you . You will gain a new respect for weight classes and make no mistake these two men are in different weight classes.
Randy is a better boxer. I don’t think this is even arguable. However, creating distance and angles against a guy of Brocks strength is no easy task. Dirty boxing against a guy like Brock is equally difficult. Randy will probably have the endurance advantage but only because Brock has to breath enough oxygen to feed all that muscle.
I don’t think there is any smart money on this fight. For all we know Randy could come in here and throw an ankle lock on Brock for the win . Brock’s one weakness is probably his lack of flexibility and an opponent who takes out his knees or ankles. This is not a likely Scenario; Randy has never used these moves in a fight before. Randy may try to time a knee. Brock wont stay on his feet too long before he shoots a double and a solid knee will finish anyone.
Brock will take Randy down. More than likely he wont be able to finish Randy on the ground. There are just too many intangibles. The last of which is the fact that I would have bet on a 39 year old Couture. Age catches up to all of us. Even Captain America.
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Jeff Wackerly 8 months ago
Not only do I think Randy has the advantage in every position, I think Randy will move in a way as to make Brock work for anything, and everything... I don't think Brock will come out calm and calculated. I think he will come out working hard, guns a blazin, and Randy will use that to his advantage... Then I think he'll clinch with him. I might be wrong but I'd appreciate it if anyone who disagrees with me, then he does it, give me the shout when he does... or call me on it, whichever...
Lastly, I really think Randy is stronger than everyone gives him credit for. As someone who got his rotator cuff blown out by Randy in a gentle practice I can say with certainly that he is stronger than people give him credit for....
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Brad 8 months ago
I'd say the odds are 50/50 on Lesnar coming out and going full-tilt right off the bat. That was definitely the mistake he made against Mir. He came out there and furiously spazzed on Mir and Mir made him pay. Against Herring, though, it was the total opposite. Even when those of us watching at home saw opportunities present themselves, Lesnar was patient and stuck to his gameplan of holding Heath down and winning an easy decision.
And Randy is definitely strong. Look at how he pushed Gonzaga around in the clinch. I know I didn't expect to see that at all.
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Jeff Wackerly 8 months ago
I read an interview with Randy where he said he's been practicing the clinch with the bigger guys for just this occasion. It sounded to me like he felt he'd have little problem putting him there and controlling him.
Really I just don't see how Brock can be favored over someone like Gabe. Think about how many tools Gabe had to get the job done and still couldn't. BJJ black belt, powerful striker, experienced, big strong guy....Ok so not nearly as big and as strong as Brock but still bigger and stronger than Randy and most of the guys he fights.
I mean, come on, the only real chance Brock has is to get Randy down and smother him for 5 rounds to get a decision. He's not gonna finish him. Randy isn't going to be nearly so easy to get or hold down, Randy will have a couple of plans for each scenario and will stick to them. I see so many ways for Randy to win this.
I think after this fight Randy will be cemented as the most popular MMA fighter of all time. I think he loves it when people think he's done and give him little chance so he can come out and WOW us.
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Brad 8 months ago
I think the only reason anyone would put Lesnar down as the favorite is the time between fights for Randy. I don't know of any other good reason. I like Lesnar and I'll be rooting for him, but from a mathmatical, statistical standpoint, Couture should be the odds-on favorite to win this thing.
That being said, I don't think Lesnar will try the smother routine again unless he's really hurting and frustrated. I think the last fight was a must-win for him, but this is his chance to show people what he can do (if he can, in fact, do anything). I think he has some odd gameplans (see: opening fight against Herring with flying knee).
Of course, I just be saying that because I want so badly for this fight to be half of what it's being built up to be.
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Jeff Wackerly 8 months ago
I agree completely with you Brad.
I can see the allure of the flying knees and crazy kicks because what would be more spectacular that to come out and flying knee someone to sleep! People would really be calling him the greatest thing since sliced bread then.
I think it's only a matter of time before he's ruling the HW division but I don't think that time is just yet.
I saw another interview where they asked Randy about the ring rust and he said he doesn't get it. He never stopped practicing (didn't before Silvia either). He said practice is as brutal, if not MORE brutal, than actual fights a lot of times. Between that and helping guys get ready for fights he said he's great and that won't be a factor at all.
I hope he whips Brocks ass, and I hope Brock comes back more humble and respectful because of it.
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Brad 8 months ago
Ha ha, I think you're spot on with the flying knee comment. If he really had pulled that off and knocked out Herring in 4 seconds, even I might be sick of hearing about it by now.
I didn't really think about it, but it would be pretty tough to think of Randy getting ring rust. I mean, he came right out of retirement and walked straight through Tim Sylvia.
Either way, I hope it is just a fraction as exciting as Dana White and the UFC are making it out to be. I think part of the reason that it IS so exciting is that Lesnar is such an unknown. Can he take a punch? Can he clinch and dirty box? Can he go five rounds? Can he jump off the top of the cage and pull off the shooting star press he failed to land at Wrestlemania? I guess we'll find out soon.
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Jeff Wackerly 8 months ago
I gotta see what this shooting star press looks like. I've been hearing about it a lot. I too really hope this fight is even a fraction as exciting as I think it will be. When Randy came back from retirement the first time and landed the first big punch to knock Tim down it was pandamonium at the house where we were watching the fight. Even the women were standing on chairs trying to see over the guys who were all standing.... This should be even better.
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