NBA Free Agency 2011: Jamal Crawford and 15 Players Who Will Get Wildly Overpaid

The 2011 free agency period in the NBA is nowhere near as exciting and dynamic as the one that came a year ago or the one that will come a year from now, but that doesn't mean there aren't some game changers out there to be had.

Really, the biggest storyline rolling around this offseason is that of the lockout, which threatens to engulf the season and turn the early winter months in to even drearier times.  A year without basketball is a sad year indeed, so who can really think about free agency at this point?

I can, that's who!

Yesterday I wrote about the biggest bargains on the free agent market this list, and there were slim pickings to be had in this year's list.

Usually, when the bargains are few and far between, teams will create a bidding war on the best free agents out there, which creates a trend of players coming off contract years who just had an abnormally good year getting more money than they otherwise would have gotten.

So I feel like this year's free agency will be full of players getting more money than they should have rightfully gotten, even if the collective bargaining negotiations end with a hard salary cap.  So who is going to get overpaid the most?  Of course I've taken the liberty of compiling those players into a nice concise list for your enjoyment.

15. Nick Young

Nick Young had a career year this season with the Washington Wizards (a trend you will see and continue to see with players coming into contract years) as he got a chance to start the majority of the games that he played in.

Young is a good scorer but, in terms of playing basketball, that's about it.  He takes some questionable shots, he is a mediocre passer (but improving), he is a terrible rebounder for a guy who is 6'6" and his defense leaves much to be desired.

However, he ends up on Sportscenter quite often and he averaged upward of 17 points a game this year so he should get looks from many teams as a restricted free agent.  Who knows exactly how much Washington is willing to commit to him, but I'm pretty sure you will see him in a Wizards uniform next year. The only question is, how big of a hit will their cap take?

14. Arron Afflalo

The Denver Nuggets absolutely robbed Detroit of Arron Afflalo back in 2009 getting him, Walter Sharp (who?) and cash for a second-round pick that turned into Vernon Macklin.  I'm pretty sure we can chalk that up as a win for the Nuggets.

I am actually quite a big fan of Afflalo's game, but I just have a feeling that teams are going to try to wrestle him away from the Nuggets as he is a restricted free agent.

His steady improvement and his basketball smarts make him a very popular player throughout the league, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few teams take a crack at outbidding Denver.

13. Rodney Stuckey

Rodney Stuckey is another player who was in the final year of his rookie contract this season, making him a restricted free agent this year.

The young man still has a lot of promise, scoring more than 17 points a game (on a weak Detroit team mind you) in each of the past two seasons mostly as a starter.

Stuckey has been a lone bright spot for the Pistons with his good scoring ability on penetrations and jumpers from 15 feet or less, but he has a bad jumper from far out, making him an inconsistent scorer and his scoring efficiency leaves much to be desired.

Elsewhere, Stuckey is a good passer but a below average defender and rebounder, but teams are interested in him nonetheless.

If Detroit doesn't want to invest too much money in Stuckey, then he could be on his way out the door if a team signs him to an offer sheet that Detroit sees to be too much for them to spend.

12. Shannon Brown

I have heard varying opinions of Shannon Brown, but most of them have been positive—I'm not sure why he has so many fans for so little production throughout the past few years.

Brown has all the physical attributes, which is something most people point to when talking about how good a player he is, but he doesn't put it all together into good offensive (or defensive, but we'll get to that later) output.

He is a fair shooter from certain spots, but he isn't a good rebounder and he isn't a good passer, and the idea that he is a great defender is a myth to me at this point.

Maybe Phil Jackson didn't play him enough for me to see the great defender he was. Whenever I saw him in the game, he gave considerable effort on defense but his technique is awful and he usually goes under screens on shooters (guys like Monta Ellis), giving them room to shoot, or over them on passers giving them an easy lane to hit the man rolling to the basket.

I just don't understand all the love the guy gets, but he is a high-flier and a fan favorite, so he is going to get a decent chunk of change, deserved or not.

11. J.R. Smith

J.R. Smith to me is like a much better version of Shannon Brown with an attitude problem, so there is a bit of a trade off there.

Smith actually seems aware of what he is doing all the time on defense, but he is also prone to take many contested jump shots and is a very mediocre passer and rebounder.

The biggest problem I have with J.R. Smith is his lack of effort when the game isn't down to the wire.  He seems to buckle down when every basket counts, but in the middle of the game he is lax on defense and doesn't care what type of shot he takes.

He can score the ball, and somebody on the fringe or looking to bolster their shooting guard depth will give him a gob of money, but if they try to start him they may be sorry.

10. Andrei Kirilenko

Andrei Kirilenko is entering that level of recovery where teams think that he can get back to the level that he used to play at, but in reality this is about the best he is going to be until the end of his career.

There was a time when Kirilenko was a legitimate threat to grab a five by five (at least five points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks), something he did three times.  In fact, he is one of two players to have multiple five by fives in a career (Hakeem Olajuwon had six).

Now Kirilenko is back to averaging more than 10 points a game, he is blocking shots and stealing balls at a good rate again, back above five rebounds a game and is getting assists again like he couldn't after his downfall.

He made $17 million this year, and it's hard to think of him getting anywhere near that this offseason, but he will get some GM enamored with his recovery, which should lead to an $8-10 million contract for Kirilenko, which seems to be too much for him.

9. Marcus Thornton

I had Marcus Thornton listed as one of my biggest bargains, so having him on my list of guys likely to get overpaid shows you how unsure I am about what kind of contract he is going to get this year.

Thornton has showed many times in his short career that he can be a good player, especially in the 27 games that he spent with the Kings this year when he averaged 21 points and five rebounds.

Something tells me that the NBA owners, as they are prone to do, are going to try to outdo themselves with Thornton, and one of them will give him a stupid contract.  But I still think that there is a chance they will take his success with a grain of salt and get him for the right price.

But probably not.

8. Glen Davis

My biggest problem with Big Baby is that he doesn't seem to know his role on the Celtics—something that can ultimately be the downfall of a team.

He thinks he deserves more minutes, plays like he should get more shots, but he isn't a good enough player to garner that much.

I'm on the fence of whether Davis could be a starter in the NBA at any point, but I'm leaning toward no.  However, it seems like there are teams out there that would like to give him a shot at starting for them, and if they get into that thought too much then he should end up getting too much money.

7. DeAndre Jordan

DeAndre Jordan is a seven footer with promise. In today's NBA, that is enough to get more than a sniff from most of the teams around the league.

Los Angeles seems completely committed to Jordan, already offering him his qualifying offer, but teams have shown interest in him and I'll eat my shoes if he ends up signing for the measly million bucks that the Clippers offer is.

6. Caron Butler

Caron Butler was the most important player not named Dirk Nowitzki for the Dallas Mavericks until he got injured 30 games into the season and had to sit out for the rest of the year.  For all intents and purposes, he was a great player for the time he played.

He is a good defender who has the ability to score the ball better than most of the players in the league, which should be enough to get a number of teams to look at him.

However, with the lack of great talent and the perception that he is a great player, he is bound to get overpaid.  It makes it worse that Butler is on starting to get on the downside of his career and is becoming a streakier player as the years roll on.

5. Kris Humphries

Three things are going to contribute to Kris Humphries getting a good sized contract.

One, he had great numbers this year compared to the rest of his career when he was given the chance to start for the first time in his time in the NBA.

Two, he is a big man.

Three, he is engaged to Kim Kardashian.  Never underestimate what being in the headlines can do to the recognition a player gets and eventually how much money he gets.

Humphries will be overpaid because he is perceived to be a better scorer, even though he played nearly 10 minutes more a game than he ever had before, and is looked at as a good rebounder even though he played on a team with a center who grabbed only six boards a game.

Seriously, GMs of the league: Keep your checkbooks closed on this one, he isn't getting any better—if anything, he is going to get worse.

4. David West

David West has been a good player for the Hornets over the past few seasons, and has been a reason for their success when they have been successful.

Isn't it possible, however, that a big reason for his success is because of Chris Paul?  After all, his replacement Carl Landry stepped in almost seamlessly when West went down, clicking with Paul quickly.

West tore his ACL earlier this season, and that could bring down his value a bit, but I still say he is going to get too much money.

3. J.J. Barea

I'll stand by it, and I truly believe that you can't have a 5'8" (he's listed as 6'0", but he's not a hair over 5'9") point guard who runs on energy and heart starting for your team and expect to compete for a title.

Barea is a perfectly good option coming off the bench to change the pace and mix things up for the opposing defense, but having him play 35 minutes a game would not be beneficial to a team.

His play in the playoffs, and with the Mavericks all year long for that matter, may drive up the price too high for Dallas to care to re-sign him.

2. Jamal Crawford

Jamal Crawford makes more sense coming off the bench at this point in his career, but I'm sure there is a team out there that will look at his last two years and think, "There's my starting two-guard!"

However, Crawford isn't a good enough player anymore to run up and down the court and play 40 minutes a game, and he sure as hell isn't good enough to defend the likes of Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant for that amount of time either.

Crawford is a great player coming off the bench, and he is easily one of the top sixth-men in the league, but I really believe putting him into a starting role would be a mistake.

1. Jason Richardson

In his time with the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic, Jason Richardson had become a one-dimensional player.

With Phoenix he had to stand around and wait for Steve Nash to get him the ball, at which point he would shoot it, or dribble a few times and then shoot it.  With Orlando he was a spoke on the wheel that centered around Dwight Howard.  If Dwight wasn't able to get the ball and get a shot off, then the ball went to one of the shooters on the outside.

This type of play has turned Richardson into a shooter—and more than being just a shooter, he has turned into a chucker, putting up whatever shot he pleases.

I feel that Richardson is headed for a steep decline, especially if he is expected to be more than just a good shooter and a guy who can get a pass off from time-to-time at this point in his career.