Fantasy Football: Stevie Johnson: Regression Risk

Buffalo Bills receiver Stevie Johnson helped reinforce the third-year receiver theory big time last year. He had 12 catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns in his first two seasons. He exploded last year after a modest six catches for 71 yards in the first two games.

From Week 3 through Week 11, Johnson averaged 82.1 yards and had nine touchdowns in those eight games. Those aren’t WR3 numbers. Those are Andre and Calvin Johnson numbers.

Alas, all good things must come to an end.

After his three touchdown performance in Week 11, Stevie only reached pay-dirt one more time. Hard to be considered elite without scoring touchdowns. He also failed to reach 75 receiving yards in any of those games. Johnson wasn’t making up for it with yardage as he averaged just 57.5 yards over that span. He was still keeping PPR league owners happy, snagging five receptions per game.

Now that he has established himself as the team’s top offensive threat, he’ll start garnering more attention. The Bills are going to be proactive by moving him around, but without a true weapon to take some pressure away, Johnson could look for like second-half Stevie Johnson. Lee Evans slowed big time last year. If he can play like he did prior to the 2009 season, Johnson will be a beneficiary.

If the Bills want to get Lee Evans and C.J. Spiller more involved in the offense, those looks will have to come from somewhere. Johnson, who had 143 targets last year, could see a few less passes his way.

Before you get the impression that I am bashing Stevie, I do like him. I love that he kept working, knowing he’d eventually get a shot. I just think he’s a victim of setting the bar too high. Going for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns makes it hard for him to match his production.

Plus, you’re going to have to get him early. Currently he is the 14th ranked wide receiver according to MockDraftCentral. I know Bills fan will argue his merit until they are blue in the face, but he is going, on average, ahead of DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Percy Harvin and Wes Welker to name a few. I’m not sure I buy that.

What are your thoughts on Stevie?

Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings