Wimbledon 2011: How Roger Federer Will Win His Seventh Title

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Wimbledon 2011: How Roger Federer Will Win His Seventh Title
Julian Finney/Getty Images

Just four of the eight men who have made this year's Wimbledon quarterfinals were supposed to be here, but that quartet is the odds-on favorite to also advance to the semifinals.

Let's break down the final seven matches of the tournament.

 

Quarterfinals

Rafael Nadal (1) def. Mardy Fish (10)

Fish is the lone remaining American in either the men's or women's draws, but his run should come to an end against the No. 1 player in the world. Nadal is 5-0 against Fish, including a pair of straight-sets victories on grass at the 2006 Queen's Club event and at Wimbledon the following year. In fact, Nadal has won 12 of the 13 sets they've played.

 

Andy Murray (4) def. Feliciano Lopez

Lopez scored one of the biggest upsets of the fortnight by defeating Andy Roddick in the third round before the Spaniard overcame a two-set deficit to outlast Lukasz Kubot in the Round of 16. Chances are he won't have much left against Murray, a man he has lost to in all four of their encounters, including twice last year.



Roger Federer
(3) def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12)

Tsonga does have a win over Federer, but it took two tiebreakers at the 2009 Masters event in Montreal. In their other four meetings, Federer hasn't dropped a set, including victories this year in Doha and Rome.

 

Novak Djokovic (2) def. Bernard Tomic

Tomic is the most unlikely quarterfinalist, and not just at this tournament. The 18-year-old Australian is the youngest man to advance this far at Wimbledon since Boris Becker in 1986. Tomic is a qualifier who entered the main draw with a career 0-1 record here and having never gotten past the third round at a major.

The fairy tale should come to an end against Djokovic, who, when this tournament began, had just one fewer title this year than Tomic had match wins on Tour in his career. 

 

Semifinals

Rafael Nadal (1) def. Andy Murray (4)

We've seen this before. Murray, with the weight of an entire nation upon him, takes on Nadal in the second week of Wimbledon. It's happened twice before with Nadal winning in straight sets in the 2008 quarters and in the semis last year.

Overall, the Spaniard is 11-4 against Murray, including three consecutive wins, the most recent of which came in straight sets in the French Open semis. Nadal is 4-2 against the Scot in majors.

 

Roger Federer (3) def. Novak Djokovic (2)

Djokovic has lost just one match this year, and it came at the hands of Federer in four sets at the French Open on the Swiss player's least favorite surface. Now, the Serb has to try to beat Federer on his favorite surface.

They have never met on grass, but Federer leads the all-time series, 14-9, and has won five of their eight meetings at Grand Slams. One of the reasons they have never met at Wimbledon is because while Federer has won the event six times, Djokovic has failed to ever get past the semis. 



Championship

Roger Federer (3) def. Rafael Nadal (1)

We have seen this dream final at Wimbledon three times, with Federer winning in 2006 and '07 before Nadal claimed the title in the greatest match ever played in '08.

They have not met at the All England Club since, but they have had two other Grand Slam clashes over the past three years, with Nadal winning at both the 2009 Australian and the recent French Open. 

Federer pushed Nadal hard over the first three sets on the clay of Roland Garros before finally relenting in the fourth set.

A lot of people like to point to the fact that Nadal is 17-8 against Federer as a reason to why the 16-time major winner cannot be considered the greatest ever, but those critics fail to realize that if you take out all meetings on clay—Nadal's favorite surface—Federer actually holds a 6-5 advantage.

Both players have looked dominant up to this point of the tournament, dropping only the first set of their fourth-round matches, so everyone should expect nothing less than a classic five-setter as long as Nadal's foot injury doesn't cause him further trouble.

 

Follow me on Twitter at @JordanHarrison.

I can be reached at jordanschwartz2003@yahoo.com

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