The View from Landsdowne Street: An Open Letter to Theo Epstein

Dear Mr. Epstein,

So the team you constructed this season (or let construct itself) didn't manage to repeat as World Champions. Unfortunately, you can't win them all, as much as we here in New England would like that.

All in all, the season was a moderate success. Expectations are always a little too high here in Boston, but most folks still think that the team you built was a solid one. After all, it's not your fault that so many key players in all aspects of the game decided to get injured right in time for the playoffs.

Now it's time to really earn your money. You are constantly lauded as one of the best GM's in all of baseball, and most people around the country really believe that.

That being said, you have had your genius moves (trading Nomar for Cabrera and others), and you have had your stupid moves (the contracts for Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo).

I am not afraid of you making a mistake based on a lack of better pressure. I am worried that you will succumb to pressure, get desperate, and make a move that doesn't make sense and you will regret in the future.

That's why I have constructed a cheat sheet for you to study from whenever you are having an introspective moment, really doing some soul-searching. I hope this list provides you with both inspiration and common sense as you try to return by beloved baseball team to their rightful place atop the game.

Please do not try and sign A.J. Burnett

The free-agent starting pitching market is thin in 2009. The top choices seem to be Derek Lowe, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, not to mention the trade possibilities for Jake Peavy.

Unfortunately for Boston, neither Peavy nor Sabathia seem really all that interested in leaving the pitcher-friendly National League. Also, if either of them do explore the possibilities of a switch to the East Coast, you can bet the bank that Hank Steinbrenner will mortgage everything he owns to make sure neither of those two players end up in anything other than pinstripes.

Lowe has expressed interest in Boston and seems like he would be a great fit with his old team. But he is represented by Scott Boras, whose act is getting quite tiresome on Yawkey Way, so that bridge might be too badly burned to be repaired.

So now the rumors emanating from your offices are that you are seriously considering making a run at A.J. Burnett, the incredibly talented and equally erratic 32 year old.

Right around now is when you should pick up this letter, read the following paragraphs, and then re-evaluate whether you are really prepared to bring a pitcher like Burnett into Fenway Park and expect him to succeed.

Exhibit A is that, because of the dearth of successful starting pitchers in this year's free-agent class, A.J. Burnett is sure to command attention from any team in the market for a starting pitcher.

If you want a concrete number of how many teams are interested, in their "Truth and Rumors" section, SI.com listed nine different teams who were all seriously considering Burnett.

We both know that the demand for Burnett will only drive his price tag through the roof, soon teams will drop out, and while you have the necessary funds to win the bidding war, be careful what you wish for; the Yankees are still trying to find new ways to forget about Carl Pavano.

The similarities with Pavano do not end with the exorbitant price tag. If you may remember, Pavano has a history of minor injuries, then had a break out year, collected a fat paycheck and bonus from the Yankees, and then starting getting injured again.

A.J. Burnett has pitched over 200 innings just three times in his semi-illustrious 10-year career. In fact, he has pitched under 165 innings in a season six times in his career, including three such seasons in his past five years.

Are you really ready to roll the dice on the next possible Matt Clement and watch Burnett collect checks and sit on the bench?

Maybe it would be worth it if Burnett was just a little more consistent in his performances as well. Although his career ERA (3.81) is not terrible, his career WHIP is 1.28, and he walked more hitters this past season (86) than he has since 2002.

Burnett is able to continue to make a living because he has incredible stuff, which is great, but not inspiring at the same time. He might be the least Moneyball pitcher in the past five years.

That's why it was so surprising to see a Billy Beane disciple like J.P. Ricciardi pony up the money to play in Toronto, and equally as not surprising when Ricciardi soured on him.

Please Mr. Epstein, don't make the same mistake your fellow Moneyball follower made. Use your common sense.

Don't panic and trade for Matt Holliday

Once again. "Truth and Rumors." courtesy of SI.com has informed me of some of the rumblings around New England that you are looking to add another bat and that the name being bandied about right now is Matt Holliday.

Do I really think you will do this? No way. You didn't trade for Johan Santana at the beginning of last year. Nevertheless, I still want to reinforce the idea that you are not trying to go get Matt Holliday.

First of all, Holliday is represented by that Boras fella, and even worse is the fact that Holliday will be entering his contract year. This could mean good things for his season statistics, and equally bad things when his agent, who loves to get his players to test free agency and see their market value, tries to play cat-and-mouse with the Red Sox's front office.

I really don't see the Red Sox trying to rent Holliday to play left field when they just traded to get Jason Bay, and I hope you don't see that either.

Holliday doesn't impress me; although he does seem like a polished and well-rounded hitter. Everyone who plays for the Rockies needs to come with a Coors Field disclaimer. His career OPS is more than 200 points higher at home than it is on the road, he also has almost twice as many home runs and 100 more RBI in the friendly, rarefied air.

Finally, the Rockies aren't likely to give up Holliday for 80 cents on the dollar, especially since they can hold onto him for half the year and then trade him to a contender if they are out of the race.

Regardless, the Rockies probably won't even let you talk to them about Holliday unless you decide to throw in either Lars Anderson or Michael Bowden, your two best prospects. Remember when you made that controversial decision not to trade Ellsbury or Lester in exchange for Johan Santana, the game's best pitcher? I beg of you to remember that and decide not to trade for this phony product of the Rocky Mountain air.

Please don't rest on your laurels

You should be feeling pretty proud of yourself after this 2008 season. If it wasn't for some untimely injuries to some key players, you might not have had a place to put a wedding ring.

But remember, your team can always get better, and your team can always get deeper. Some of the key contributors from seasons past are not getting any younger, and they aren't indomitable either.

Mike Lowell looks like he could be on the downside of his career. The man is a walking infirmary, with busted hips and fingers alike. He is also 36, and some of his limbs aren't going to heal with just golf and relaxation.

Look into the idea of signing Mark Teixeira, trading Lowell, and moving Kevin Youkilis to third base. Explore other options at third base. Holliday might not be available for cheap, but with Ian Stewart ready to take over at third, Garrett Atkins might be worth an inquiry or two.

The bullpen is still improving, but as every baseball man knows, there is never enough solid bullpen help when a team needs it. Try to continue to develop Bowden and Clay Buchholz. Explore the possibility of moving Coco Crisp or Julio Lugo for a good left-handed specialist, maybe Brian Fuentes.

Make sure you know how to balance your team chemistry.

You have a few position battles looming for Spring Training, most specifically at shortstop and in center field. If you aren't careful, you could shake the always precarious balance that some call team chemistry.

You traded Manny Ramirez because you valued that chemistry, now you might have two veteran professionals in Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp, who definitely think they deserve to start. If you can find a good deal, make a deal. Those players aren't the future of your team; in fact, many would be happy to see Lugo go.

But they also provide invaluable depth. They both have specific skill sets, and it's tough to imagine Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie being able to handle 160 games apiece. Why not try to make sure that when they do start to get fatigued, there are capable replacements for them.

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I have faith in you, just make sure you are cautious and prudent, but also opportunistic.

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