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The biggest reason Murray has not won a Wimbledon title yet is Nadal. The world No. 1 beat Murray in the quarterfinals in 2008 and the semifinals last year and has generally owned Murray in their careers.
Thus, a good thing for Murray is that Nadal seems to be a little bit off his game of late. Even in winning the 2011 French Open, the normally dominant Mallorcan showed signs of vulnerability.
Nadal did take out Murray in the semis of Roland Garros in straight sets, but Murray had more chances than normal on Nadal's serve. Plus you have to remember that the match was on the Scot's worst surface, and he was still dealing with at least some ankle pain.
Nadal also looked weary in losing at the Queen's Club event last week to Tsonga.
Right now, Murray is playing at his best level, while Nadal clearly is not. So if there was ever a time that Murray could pull off the upset against a man that's won 11 of 15 overall meetings, it would be at this year's Wimbledon Championships.