Cleveland Indians: 2-B Or Not 2-B?

Sorry for the bad headline, but that is a question facing the Indians this off-season, do they add a 2B or not. We have all heard it. The Indians are not shy about it. There is a desire to try and upgrade either that 2B position or 3B in the infield. 

This in essence will either leave Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta at their current positions with a new 3B, or create an infield shift to the left, making Peralta the new 3B with Cabrera moving over to his natural SS position while adding a new 2B.

We were told that this is all based on availability of supply in the market and how these options would fit onto the team as compared to other areas of need. Basically, if the right option presents itself and it is the best viable option in the eyes of the front office group to improve the overall team, regardless of position, that is where they are going to spend the money. It’s about bang for the buck, which is exactly how you have to think in a small-to-mid market franchise.

On a side rant, the Indians now seem fine with this notion of moving Peralta to third base, which is different from what we had heard in previous spring trainings when we were told Peralta was very limited in his defense at third and that he was the man at short long-term. So I am not quite sold on the fact that he would be moved to third base, which would deflate Peralta’s market value.

Anyway, with all of this said, and looking at the market for these two infield positions, why the clamoring for the Indians to make a move? Let’s take a look at the top players at each position available on the open market.

At second base we see a list of Orlando Hudson (31 years old), Mark Gruzielanek (39), Jeff Kent (41), Felipe Lopez (29), Ray Durham (37), Jerry Hairston Jr. (33), and Tadahito Iguchi (34) among other relatively marginal players that would be barely comparable to a Jamey Carroll or Josh Barfield.

Ok, so from here whom do you pick? Orlando Hudson? Fine. Lets take a look.

Orlando Hudson is a fine second baseman who has an All-Star appearance in 2007, and three Gold Gloves to his credit. He is a solid contact hitter who can also draw a walk. His power and speed are average.

On the flip side, he is coming off of a season-ending surgery in mid-August that repaired ligament damage in his left wrist (also had thumb ligament injury in ‘07). He will be fine for opening day, but the thought of buying goods that may be partly damaged by ligament problems makes you think twice.

Statistically, aside from his outstanding defense, which would be a welcome addition up the middle with Cabrera, I can’t help but think of our old friend Ronnie Belliard. In fact, after looking up Hudson's most similar batters on baseball-reference.com, Belliard is the third most similar to him through age 30. And if you remember, Belliard’s defense wasn’t all that shabby in Cleveland either. So there is a real comparison.

Let’s look at career splits:

Hudson - .282 AVG/.346 OBP/.433 SLG/.779 OPS

Belliard - .275 AVG/.340 OBP/.416 SLG/.756 OPS

Not that different huh?

I could also go into some Sabermetric stats and say how Hudson’s BABIP, or hit rate, was a bit fortunate over the past two seasons, with BABIP’s in the .340’s, when his career average is at .318. So is he really the .300 he has shown himself to be the last two years? Likely not.

Then why do we read that the Indians need to shell out upwards of 10, 11, 12 million dollars a year for Hudson when Belliard did it at the discount of 1.1, 2.5, 4.0 million per year in ’04, ’05, and ’06 respectively and still doesn’t even make more than $2 million per year?

I truly can’t explain it. Maybe it is the continued misconceptions that I have previously spoke about with Peralta and people's desire to move him, or the immediate gratification that Clevelander’s want from their team to win now, spend money, and end their long-lived curse.

By no means am I saying that Hudson should be paid similarly to Belliard at this point in his career, as he is two years younger and does play better defense, but is the difference between these players drastic enough to warrant a $10+ million salary?

Heck, the A's just signed their second baseman Mark Ellis to a very reasonable 2-year, $11 million contract. Hudson should be viewed as the superior player between the two, but by how much?

Hudson’s most similar player according to baseball reference is Carlos Guillen. He is in the midst of a regrettable 4-year/$48 million contract from the Tigers that Hudson may be targeting, but to me that is still excessive when there are options out there who give only scalable differences that can be had much cheaper while you focus your team elsewhere to make a bigger impact. Remember, is is about bang for the buck.

After Hudson, is there anything else you like? Me either, let's move on. Second base free agents are not the answer.

Now we'll take a look at third base. In a very light list of options, the best are Joe Crede (31), Casey Blake (35), Russell Branyan (33), Fernando Tatis (34), and Ramon Vazquez (32) among other marginal options.

From this list whom do you select? Joe Crede? He has big time back problems and is a question mark every time he takes the field. Casey Blake? Likely the best option but is not a player to invest into past one to two years. Russell Branyan? Anyone?

It is true that I left Hank Blalock off of the list, but that was intentional, as the Rangers will certainly pick up his $6.2 million option.

Now based on this disappointing list, do I really have to go into any details as to why there is no bang for the buck? Certainly not, BUT, I do see options that could help the team at a certain price tag in the short-term.

IF, Joe Crede would pass a physical exam, and be listed as in playable shape, the Indians should find a way to attempt to sign him. His offer would likely be around a reasonable one-year deal in the range of $2-3 million with heavy incentives limiting to no more than $6 million. That contract would be a win-win and be very beneficial to both sides involved, giving Crede another chance, and the Indians get more time to allow Wes Hodges to grow in AAA Columbus.

If he plays the full season, the Indians would have one of the better third baseman in the league. If he gets hurt again and does not play, it potentially would only be a negative of no more than $2-3 million for one season, and then you move on.

Another option I would not be opposed to, and I am sure I’d be in the minority here, is to sign an old friend of the feather, Russell Branyan. Hear me out. I know that many complained about the platoon of Michaels/Dellucci, but a platoon of Branyan/Marte is not that bad in the short-term.

Career splits:

Branyan v. RH: .234 AVG/.335 OBP/.491 SLG/.826 OPS

Marte v. LH: .252 AVG/.329 OBP/.420 SLG/.749 OPS

Granted, the on-base skills are not ideal, but Marte did improve against LH, hitting .293 in ’08. And for the likely cheap cost of signing a Russell Branyan, the Indians would have a platoon that would project together to have an .800 OPS (I am assuming 500 AB with 350 by Branyan), which is roughly an average offensive 3B.

Finally, the other option is Casey Blake. We all know and respect Casey and I don’t believe that he would be very demanding in his desire to only play third base if he came back, he can play many places on the field. He obviously would start there initially, but he also does not block any prospects such as Wes Hodges, or stop the Indians from later moving Peralta to third base maybe even if Josh Barfield starts hitting and forces a move in the infield. Blake gives options. 

That is important, keeping options open in the infield for a later date when real opportunities present themselves. Maybe those will happen this winter and the Indians make a trade for a Garret Atkins or a Brian Roberts (who I would pray we don’t sell the farm for and then get stuck without an extension for). To me it is finding the correct option, which is likely through the trade market if Indians fans want it to happen this year.

Another point lost in all of the debate to add a player such as Orlando Hudson to a multi-year deal, is the fact that Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez will become free agents after 2010 and the Indians need to make sure that they have payroll flexibility to be able to maneuver extensions. Cliff Lee could be demanding at least $15 million by then, and can the Indians keep Victor Martinez at $7 million?

Plus, the Indians have escalating salaries for Peralta and Sizemore as well as arbitration eligibles that will begin increasing as well. There is less room entering 2010 than the Indians have entering 2009.

So as a fan, it is easy to say go get the guy and spend money, but realistically looking at the situation and where the Indians sit with upcoming stars at the AAA level who will only make minimums as compared to brought in veterans, it just makes sense to wait it out offensively for the correct decision. The offense is not the problem. There are more pressing needs on the pitching staff for the upcoming season, which is where more options lie in the market anyway. We will look into those in a later column.

The Indians need to make sure that they can transition the team long-term with the coming blend of youngsters with the veterans in their prime. Flexibility will be key to this, and if the Indians go out and sign marginally good talent to long-term deals, it could very easily come back to haunt them and limit their ability to maintain the core talent of this organization.

The Indians don’t need another Hafner contract, which is close to what people are hinting that Orlando Hudson is worth. And with his increasing injury doubt, that may be what they’re asking for.

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