I continue to be concerned about Clay Buchholz and his back injury. The Red Sox pushed him back so he missed the series against New York, but he will pitch tonight against Toronto. Adam Lind and Aaron Hill have hit Buchholz well. Lind is at .346 with two home runs in 26 at-bats, while Hill is at .296 with a home run in 27 at-bats. Avoid Corey Patterson and note that Jose Bautista is only 5-for-19.
Fausto Carmona has been destroyed in his last five starts, giving up 27 runs in his last 31 innings pitched. That about says it all. Curtis Granderson is at .444 in 36 at-bats with a couple home runs. Both Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano are both hitting better than .400 against him as well. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher are hitting better than .300. In other words, bench Carmona.
The Brewers are relatively solid overall against Kyle Lohse. Ryan Braun is at .333, while Casey McGehee is at .308. Prince Fielder is only a .261 hitter but more surprisingly does not have a home run in 23 at-bats. Rickie Weeks is at .250 in 24 at-bats. Look to avoid Corey Hart completely, as he is only 1-for-12 against Lohse.
Andre Ethier and James Loney are the only Dodgers worth starting in this one. Ethier is 6-for-11, while Loney is 6-for-18. Both of them and the 3-for-10 of Casey Blake are your only Dodgers better than .300 against Jhoulys Chacin. Look to avoid Juan Uribe at 0-for-12 and Matt Kemp at 3-for-20.
Chad Billingsley gave up just one run in seven innings while recording a win against the Rockies his last time out, but he did give up 11 hits. Todd Helton is 10-for-23 against him lifetime, while Carlos Gonzalez is 4-for-9. Seth Smith is the only major red flag at 3-for-14 unless you planned on starting Chris Iannetta. Billingsley is 3-3 in his last seven starts against Colorado with a 4.20 ERA.
The poor numbers Tim Hudson is seeing on the road cannot be stressed strongly enough. After getting shelled by the Mets, he is now 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA away from home this season, 3.50 runs worse than his home ERA. Carlos Lee is a .379 hitter in 29 at-bats, and Jeff Keppinger is 5-for-10 against Hudson lifetime. Hudson is solid, but the road numbers should have you think twice in head-to-head leagues where ERA and WHIP are close.
Only Alex Gordon and Chris Getz are hitting better than .231 and have more than 10 at-bats against Ervin Santana. Gordon is at .286 in 21 at-bats, while Chris Getz is at .444 in 18 at-bats. Billy Butler is only hitting .231 in 26 at-bats, but he does have three home runs against him. Avoid your Royals where you can in this one.
Charlie Morton has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts, continuing to be one of the better starters that no one is looking at. Some of it is luck because he is walking too many hitters (31 in 75 innings), but riding the wave right now makes sense.
Spot Starts: Morton, Jason Marquis, Aneury Rodriguez
John Lackey was lit up like a Christmas tree during his last outing against the Blue Jays prior to his DL stint. Even with that, the Blue Jays struggle against him. Start the 5-for-9 of Yunel Escobar, while Adam Lind has the same average of .556 with 10 hits in 18 at-bats. Rajai Davis is hitting .381 in 21 at-bats. Otherwise, look to avoid your Blue Jays based on track record.
The Rays have already seen Jeremy Guthrie three times this season, so the numbers are starting to pile up. Guthrie has given up 10 runs against them in 21 innings pitched, but seven did come in one outing. Johnny Damon is the only red flag at .191 in 47 at-bats. The rest of your Rays are good to go in this one. Start them as you normally would.
David Price has given up a total of four runs in his last 22 innings pitched in his last three starts. Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Vlad Guerrero are all hitting .300 or better against Price with Markakis holding the best numbers. Otherwise, look to avoid your Orioles where possible. The numbers simply are not good enough to reach for.
Nothing pretty from the Rockies against Ted Lilly. Only Carlos Gonzalez at 4-for-9 has numbers worth entertaining. Troy Tulowitzki is 3-for-19, while Ryan Spilborghs is 1-for-17 and Chris Iannetta only 3-for-13. With the numbers here, do not reach if you can avoid it.
Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre are your best bets against Scott Baker. Beltre is at .360 with a home run in 25 at-bats, while Andrus is 4-for-11. Small sample, but Nelson Cruz is 3-for-6 with two home runs in his at-bats against Baker. Josh Hamilton is only 2-for-14 and David Murphy just 2-for-13. Michael Young is not great, but nothing to bench here.
While Aramis Ramirez is hitting just .247 against Roy Oswalt, he does have five home runs in 73 at-bats. Geovany Soto is hitting .400 in 15 at-bats against him. Look to avoid Kosuke Fukudome, who is only 2-for-19 against him. Oswalt is 1-2 at home but has continued to post a solid 3.24 ERA. He was 1-1 against the Cubs last season as well.
The Braves that have faced Brett Myers have all pounded him. Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, Martin Prado, Chipper Jones and Alex Gonzalez are all hitting better than .300 against him. Uggla has five home runs in 42 at-bats to go with 14 RBI and a .333 average in 42 at-bats. McCann and Jones each have a home run in 39 and 38 at-bats respectively to go with their .300 marks.
Ubaldo Jimenez dominated the Dodgers his last time out, going all nine innings while allowing just four hits and no runs. Matt Kemp is at .306 against Jimenez, and his are the best numbers available to you. Andre Ethier is only 10-for-40, while Casey Blake is 5-for-25. Avoid James Loney, who is hitting below .200 against the Colorado starter.
Miguel Cabrera is 8-for-17 against Felix Hernandez, by far the best numbers you will see from the Tigers in this one. Jhonny Peralta, though, is no slouch, hitting .317 against the Seattle ace. Otherwise, look to avoid your Tigers here.
Spot Starts: Jake Westbrook, Tyler Chatwood, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Joel Pineiro