Well, once the track went sloppy, everything I said yesterday was thrown in the trash. Ruler On Ice, who would have been thoroughly outclassed on a fast track, used his experience in the off-going to stalk close to the front and take the lead turning for home.

To steal terms from the immortal Seinfeld: His mutha was a mudder, his fatha was a mudder, he's a mudder.

Animal Kingdom had a heap of trouble, nearly going down right at the start and never getting himself back into the race. That John Velazquez didn't fall off of him in the early going is a testament to his skill.

1st. Ruler on Ice

2nd. Stay Thirsty

3rd. Brilliant Speed

4th. Nehro

No excuse for Brilliant Speed not making up ground in the stretch.

Okay, all the talk, all the handicapping, all the opinions, they're fun. But it's race time.

I'll be back after the race to tell you what happened, but for now, here's a final look at the odds with only seven minutes to post:

1. Master of Hounds, 5-1
2. Stay Thirsty, 15-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 24-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 10-1
6. Nehro, 9-2
7. Monzon, 26-1
8. Prime Cut, 20-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 5-2
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 28-1
12. Shackleford, 7-1

NBC had an interesting interview with Team Valor's Barry Irwin. Team Valor owns Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

Irwin is not "holding his breath" that Animal Kingdom can win from far back since the Belmont track is playing more "like a conveyer belt."

Irwin also said that after this race, he wants to point Animal Kingdom to the Arlington Million, a turf race a 1 1/4 miles in August at Arlington Park in suburban Chicago. After that, he plans to run him in a synthetic track race before finishing off the season on the first Saturday in November back at Churchill Downs in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, also at 1 1/4 miles.

Of course, we'll see if they stay to that plan if Animal Kingdom somehow gets moved to the front of the conveyer belt because he's already completely assembled.

With less than 20 minutes to post, this is the penultimate update. Post parade is next, along with the return playing of New York, New York off of a one-year hiatus.

Odds, for those still waiting to place a last-minute wager, as of 6:16 PM EDT:

1. Master of Hounds, 5-1
2. Stay Thirsty, 15-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 24-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 10-1
6. Nehro, 9-2
7. Monzon, 25-1
8. Prime Cut, 19-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 5-2
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 27-1
12. Shackleford, 7-1

Shackleford's prices keep falling (he was 16-1 at one point yesterday), and Animal Kingdom finally dropped back to 5-2 after spending most of the past few hours at 3-1.

With the way the money is going now, there's a decent chance that Shackleford goes off at 6-1 or even 5-1, possibly as the third-choice he was on the morning line.

I've become more and more unconfident throughout the afternoon, and now that we are barely half an hour from the 143rd Belmont Stakes, I have no confidence in any of my wagers and actually think Shackleford is going to win the race.

Yup, the horse who just yesterday I wrote could not make the distance has become the horse I think will win. He's also the horse I didn't bet to finish better than third in any of my wagers.

Of course, I'm still rooting for Brilliant Speed and Nehro, since I've bet that and they're both in my fantasy stable. But do I think they can win? Not anymore.

I'm a broken man, guys. Broken, and the race hasn't even been run yet.

That said, here's the updated betting line as of 6:00pm EDT:

1. Master of Hounds, 5-1
2. Stay Thirsty, 14-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 24-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 10-1
6. Nehro, 9-2
7. Monzon, 24-1
8. Prime Cut, 18-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 26-1
12. Shackleford, 8-1

Well, a no-shot New York-bred longshot led the entire way to win the Manhattan Handicap under Jose Espinoza for equally nobody trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul.

Mission Approved, who along with stable and entry-mate Wishful Tomcat were sent off at 21-1 odds, led the entire way to stun the world in the Manhattan, holding off a game-and-determined Bim Bam and Eclipse Award-winner Gio Ponti in the process.

To call this a shocker doesn't even begin to describe this race. Dear me, dear me.

When this happens though, you can't help but feel happy for the connections. Could be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence.

I can now officially say I think Shackleford is going to win the Belmont, all arguments to the contrary ignored. That said, I placed my bets earlier today and I didn't bet him, so here is what I bet:

$0.10 superfecta: 1,5,9 / 1,5,9 / 1,4,5,6,7,9,10,12 / 1,4,5,6,7,9,10,12 ($18 total)
$1 exacta 5/ALL ($11 total)
$1 exacta ALL/5 ($11 total)
$0.10 superfecta: 5,6,9,10 / 5,6,9,10 / 1,5,6,9,10 / 1,4,5,6,7,9,10,12 ($18 total)
$2 win 7
$5 win 4

I've tried a bunch of combinations, keying in on Master of Hounds, Animal Kingdom, and Brilliant Speed, all of which likely have no chance the way the Belmont track has been playing today. Oh well.

I did cover myself in the second superfecta with Nehro and Mucho Macho Man, and those two do have a chance. If they can keep close to the lead, the track will play to their styles.

We'll see what happens, but I'm not confident in my bets anymore.

The closer we get to post time, the more and more it looks like Shackleford may have a chance today and that all the omens are going his way.

Dale Romans just scored a huge win in the Just A Game Stakes.

The sloppy track suits Shackleford's running style immensely as he'll be able to avoid other horses flinging mud into his face.

Oh, the sloppy track has also been heavily favoring speed, and as near-lone speed, Shackleford is in a good place.

Furthermore, in a stakes race up at Woodbine last hour, the first three horses were all by Old Forester, who was a son of Forestry. Shackleford himself is a son of Forestry.

Maybe, just maybe, only Forestry horses can beat other Forestry horses on this rainy day.

Maybe, just maybe, Shackleford will win the Belmont Stakes and established himself as unquestionably the best horse in America.

Here are the updated odds for the 143rd Belmont Stakes as of 5:25 PM EDT

1. Master of Hounds, 5-1
2. Stay Thirsty, 15-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 26-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 10-1
6. Nehro, 4-1
7. Monzon, 25-1
8. Prime Cut, 19-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 29-1
12. Shackleford, 8-1

Next post will be after the Manhattan Handicap. I will recap the Manhattan and give you the bets I placed for the 143rd Belmont Stakes.

Dale Romans is having one heck of a day already. If Shackleford can win the Belmont, woah nellie!

C. S. Silk, a 12-1 outsider, just took the Just A Game Stakes for older female horses on the turf course at Belmont, leading the entire way and drawing off in the stretch. The advantage that front-runners have on a sloppy track isn't matched as much on an off turf course, and the deeper or worse the course is, sometimes it's actually a disadvantage.

But at least in this race, C. S. Silk was able to control the race and give Romans and jockey Javier Castellano a nice win on the undercard.

Castellano will ride Stay Thirsty in the Belmont for Todd Pletcher, and he also has a mount in the next race, the Manhattan Handicap, which is the last race before the Belmont.

Here are the updated odds for the Belmont Stakes as of 4:53 PM EDT:

1. Master of Hounds, 9-2
2. Stay Thirsty, 16-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 26-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 9-1
6. Nehro, 4-1
7. Monzon, 25-1
8. Prime Cut, 20-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 29-1
12. Shackleford, 8-1

While I would like you to follow me on Twitter, I understand that I'm not really important. But you know who is important? Todd Pletcher, or especially his Twittering alter-ego.

Pletcher, who trained one-time Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo, is imitated on Twitter by NotTheToddster, who pokes fun of Pletcher's "I'm the center of the universe" look. While I'm sure Pletcher doesn't think he's the center of the universe ("He doesn't need to think it because he knows it" NotTheToddster would say), with his snazzy suits and somewhat intimidating demeanor, it's easy that one can get that impression.

Here are some recent gems from the pen of NotTheToddster:

It's getting wet out here at BEL -- good thing I can walk on water. - 2 hours ago

@MollyJoRosen: Anyone else notice that @Notthetoddster gets quiet on racedays?” any1 notice I'm training at a 28% clip - 6 hours ago

Uncle mo healthy for fall. I hope the europeans didn't book southwest. No refunds. - June 3

Sorry I've been off the grid for a few days, trying to teach LeBron a little about humility. - June 2

Had to go to 14 barbers before one agreed to cut my hair. No one wanted to mess with perfection. #preakness - May 19

By the way, the barber cried cutting my hair...he said he had a hard time cutting something so beautiful... - May 20

Do you think trainers have bad luck on Friday the 13th? They have bad luck every time they see my name in the entry box. - May 13

For more, follow @NotTheToddster and join in the fun. Here's hoping he doesn't sue me for printing his tweets without express written consent.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Derby runner-up Nehro, just scored a front-running win in the Woody Stephens Stakes with his three-year-old Justin Phillip.

The Woody Stephens is named for, believe it or not, Woody Stephens, who back in the 1980s won the Belmont Stakes a record five years in a row. One of his winners, Swale in 1984, had also won the Kentucky Derby.

Swale famously passed away barely a week after the Belmont. After a morning workout where everything went fine, he returned to his stall and just died. While it was originally thought to have been a heart attack, an autopsy ruled this out. To this day what caused his death is unknown.

This was the last race on the dirt, and the deep closers have been thoroughly beaten.

Moreover, the dirt track has now been downgraded from muddy to sloppy and the outer bands of the rain have begun to descend on Belmont. You can now expect a sloppy track for the Belmont.

For the second consecutive stakes race, the deep closers gained almost no ground in the stretch, this time in a sprint race.

Although pace-setter Khan of Khans faded (he was thoroughly outclassed throughout), the other two front-enders, This Ones For Phil and Trappe Shot, stayed on, with Trappe Shot pulling clear to win by what seemed like a dozen lengths.

D' Funnybone, who was supposed to be a contender coming from far back, never made up any ground and was a non-factor, finishing fourth.

This really isn't looking good for Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds, two of the three shortest prices on the board right now. I'm going to say you should try and beat them at any way you can. The track just isn't playing towards either of their preferred running styles.

Here are updated prices as of 3:20 PM EDT:

1. Master of Hounds, 9-2
2. Stay Thirsty, 16-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 29-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 9-1
6. Nehro, 4-1
7. Monzon, 26-1
8. Prime Cut, 21-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 31-1
12. Shackleford, 9-1

Well there you go. Turbulent Descent stalked behind in fourth the entire way through the race before moving into second as they turned for home.

The early leader, Savvy Supreme, had nothing left, but the horse that stalked her throughout, It's Tricky, stayed on. Even though Turbulent Descent closed right to her outside, in the final sixteenth of a mile it was It's Tricky who still had something in the tank, pulling away to win by three lengths. She should not have been able to beat Turbulent Descent had the track been fast.

These conditions make Shackleford a definite contender, even though the distance is the biggest concern. We all know that he is game and difficult to pass, but with him out on the lead not getting mud flung in his face, he could be just a bit more fresh and composed as they turn for home.

I also like Santiva with a sloppy track. His pedigree makes me think that he'll like a muddy or sloppy track, and the distance isn't a big concern. Although he'll be coming from the back, I think Shaun Bridgmohan will keep him out of trouble getting to the first turn and rate him just a bit closer than he would have on a fast track. He might just have enough left as they turn for home.

Additionally, 30-1 price Monzon has already won a race on a sloppy track and should be able to get the distance. He'll be coming from out of the clouds with Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, and Brilliant Speed, but with the dirt pedigree, he might be the best able to handle a bad going. Generally speaking, horses with dominantly turf lines are tough to predict on off goings and many of them don't like sloppy tracks. Both Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds could struggle to adapt to the surface.

The rain isn't supposed to return until around 7pm, but at the same time, it isn't sunny or warm. The track won't be drying out. Any early rain could lead to a further deterioration of the conditions.

That said, here is the current Belmont Stakes betting line as of 1:50 PM EDT:

1. Master of Hounds, 9-2
2. Stay Thirsty, 16-1
3. Ruler On Ice, 31-1
4. Santiva, 13-1
5. Brilliant Speed, 9-1
6. Nehro, 4-1
7. Monzon, 26-1
8. Prime Cut, 21-1
9. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 7-1
11. Isn’t He Perfect, 32-1
12. Shackleford, 10-1

Looking at the track right now, it doesn't look good. It's listed as muddy, but the way it looks, I'd say it is closer to sloppy than anything else.

Monmouth Park in neighboring New Jersey is almost impossible to see, with severe fog and just abysmal conditions. Belmont isn't has bad, but it's getting there.

The first stakes race, the Acorn, is only a couple of minutes from the post. The race is the first leg of New York's Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies. The two horse, Turbulent Descent, is the overwhelming favorite at 3-5, and deservingly so. Even though it is only a one-turn race, this race will be a good indicator at how the track is playing.

I'll be back after this race to give you all a better synopsis of the track condition and an update on the Belmont Stakes odds.

Well, I told you I'd update you if the track condition deteriorated further, and deteriorate it did. The dirt course is now listed as muddy, although the turf is still good.

Lucky for you, Jerry Bossert of the New York Daily News has broken down just how each runner has faired in the past on an off-track (i.e. a track not listed as fast).

Longshots Monzon and Ruler on Ice are the only horses in the field to have won over a non-fast dirt track, although Shackleford trained the best of all 19 Derby starters when working out over a sloppy track earlier that week.

The race will shape up much better for Shackleford if the track is muddy, and what do you know, it is muddy now.

Bleacher Report featured writer Marc Doche, who when he's not writing is dominating at the windows in California, cashing wagers left and right, broke down the post position draw and gave a sneak peak at his picks for each horse.

Here are his snippets for each horse:

PP Horse (Morning Line Odds) Comment

1. Master of Hounds (10-1) Late Derby run will lure some sucker money.

2. Stay Thirsty (20-1) Consistency of race record indicates a notch below in homecoming

3. Ruler on Ice (20-1) Massive long shot after being less than 6/1 in six previous starts.

4. Santiva (15-1) Pedigree suggests he should stay the distance.

5. Brilliant Speed (15-1) Can come from clouds for underneath finish at nice price.

6. Nehro (4-1) Asmussen sitting on goose egg for Belmont meet.

7. Monzon (30-1) Up the track in all three graded stakes tries.

8. Prime Cut (15-1) Dramatic improvement needed despite race over track.

9. Animal Kingdom (2-1) Likely ends up half-length short of Triple Crown.

10. Mucho Macho Man (10-1) Another minor award the ceiling.

11. Isn’t He Perfect (30-1) Makes no impact for the fifth time in a graded stake.

12. Shackleford (9-2) On fumes through stretch and off the board.

He thinks Animal Kingdom is the likely winner, and you know what, based on the form it's hard to disagree.

However, he is not sold on Master of Hounds, who in the current betting is co-second choice with Nehro at 5-1.

Click on the link below to take a look at Marc's complete breakdown and follow him @mdoche.

Marc Doche previews the Belmont 2011 Belmont Stakes Post Positions: Odds, Preview and More

Saturday is finally upon us and all the drama will unfold in seven hours time.

After record-high temperatures all week, the skies are overcast in Elmont, N.Y. and there is more than a chance of rain. The current report forecasts the storms to hold out until after 7pm, and post time is 6:35pm EDT.

That said, this makes it a tough race to handicap since we don't know exactly when the rain is coming and whether it'll be enough to turn the track.

8-Hour Weather Report for Elmont, New York

The more rain that falls, the better it is for Shackleford, as he will be out on the lead and not getting mud slung to his face. If Jesus Castanon is able to clear him over from gate 12 on a muddy track (there's almost no chance it'll be a sloppy track), he could get a dream trip under a slow ride and go all the way.

Currently, the track is listed at good. You can check for updates by clicking here. We'll update you if the track condition deteriorates further.

For those who don't know, listed below is the full range of common dirt track conditions from best to worst:

Fast

Good

Muddy

Sloppy

While we were worrying about rain before the Kentucky Derby, now we may be praying for it.

Unbelievably warm weather led Belmont to cancel Thursday's racing program, although other tracks in the area went ahead with racing as scheduled. We'll keep you informed about Friday's program as soon as we have information.

An unusually large field of 12 is set to run in the Belmont grudge match.

Animal Kingdom, the Kentucky Derby winner, will break from post 9 for the 143rd Belmont Stakes. Shackleford, who denied him a chance of the Triple Crown by a length in the Preakness, will break from the outside gate.

Other interesting contenders include Brilliant Speed and Master of Hounds, who both were quickly gaining ground at the end of the Kentucky Derby, only to run out of ground. Will the extra quarter-mile be the change they need to run down Animal Kingdom and deny both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford the rubber game of the three-game set.

There are all three newcomers, Monzon, Prime Cut, and Ruler on Ice. I don't think any of these horses have even the slightest chance here. Monzon is outclassed, while the other two are sprinters who stubbornly were thrown into a race half a mile too long for their stamina.

Click the link below if you want more information on each horse and follow me on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates throughout the Belmont weekend.

Short breakdown on each horse in the field: 2011 Belmont Stakes Favorites: Meet the Field at This Year's Race