Josh Selby is one of the players in the 2011 NBA draft that has the physical tools to be a great NBA player. Yet, he seems to be prone to acting on bad advice and making bad decisions in general. His first year at Kansas is a cause for concern for many teams.
Selby played more games than Kyrie Irving, however, Irving showed far better in the games he played. Selby provided 1.07 points per shot and shot at a dismal 37 percent from the field. Actually, that is worse than dismal, that is horrendous.
Over the last 13 games he averaged less than four points a game.
He seems to be leaving school to avoid having to transfer, sit out a year and play for another team. Is he blaming the coach? Does he think the coach is the cause of his poor performance?
Selby "de-committed" from Tennessee to attend Kansas, got to Kansas and was unable to even be the starter at the college level. Who is telling him that he is NBA ready?
Selby's performance at the NBA combine was fantastic. It could be argued that he is one of the players that benefited the most from the time in Chicago. There are teams that will have to give him a serious look and try to decide if the risk is worth the potential reward.
Grouped with the shooting guards although he is only 6'2", he was the smallest player audition for that position. However, for his position, Selby was able to register the second highest maximum vertical reach (11'8"), highest maximum vertical jump (42") and showed good North/South speed in the sprints (3.20 seconds).
There was one area that was pretty unimpressive that has a major role in the success of guys his size where Selby performed poorly: Agility. His time on the lane shuttle was 11.13 seconds. That is pretty slow for a 6'2" guy.
If he had tested with the point guards, it would have placed him in the back of the pack on the agility drill.
Still, Selby has a good chance of being a late-first round selection this year.
Why Math or Finance?
If Selby believes he is an NBA talent, staying in college another year (or even two) would allow him to develop as a person or player. It is distressing that he would forgo those years of college and take a real chance of slipping to the second round.
For Kyrie Irving, the decision to declare made excellent sense. He was projected to be a Top 3 pick and on many draft boards as the top overall pick. All Kyrie needed to do was avoid getting hit by a bus, and he was going to make close to $14 million in the next three years.
That was enough for him to wave "au revoir" to the Cameron Crazies.
Selby is projected to be a late-first round pick. So, he is looking at making around $3 million dollars over the next three years. If he slips to the second round, the guarantees are off.
If Selby, believes he has the talent to be a top pick who is giving him the advice that carries a reasonable opportunity cost of $9 to $11 million dollars over the next four years.
This is a case of a kid letting the wrong people sit in his ears and lacking the sense to make a better decision. Additionally, he is going to accept the pay cut in a year that has an excellent chance of being shortened by a lockout.
Does Selby Provide any of the Intangibles that Scouts Look For?
Josh Selby is a player that brings almost none of the intangibles that coaches and franchise directors look for. Additionally, he did virtually nothing after his suspension in real games to prove that he is committed to his team, to winning or anything other than himself.
We know he scored a lot of points in high school, but so did Sebastian Telfair, Marcus Liberty and DeJuan Wagner. He had a couple good games in college, but the coach saw the team as being better with him off the court.
He participated in the draft combine as a shooting guard. This probably happened for two reasons: 1.) Someone told him that the draft was weak on shooting guards, and 2.) In his mind, he thinks he is a NBA Shooting guard.
He might be right on the first one, but as for the second he is dead wrong. Very few teams are looking for 6'2" shooting guards that shoot 37 percent from the field. There are small guys that play shooting guard, but that is usually because they lack the skills to play the position that makes the most sense given their stature.
More Reasons This is a Bad Decision:
His decision to declare makes you wonder if he is even ready to look out for his own best interests, much less the interests of the team that drafts him.
As a late-first round pick with the issues he has had, the odds are, in my opinion, that the teams that are most likely to draft Josh Selby are teams that are least likely to really need him on the court in the next three years.
How is Josh going to like those apples?