Novak Djokovic Not Nadal Will Win the French Open

Yes, he can!

It’s heresy, I know. Yet keep in mind that the blasphemies of one heretic can become the religion of many. This has happened before in human history.

The zeitgeist of our tennis world is finally moving forward. Nothing is sacred anymore, no one is safe. There are no certainties in sports. Or change is the only constant, as the wisdom goes. How dare I proclaim, let alone with any certainty then, that Djokovic will prevail over Nadal on his favored surface?

Simply, because people, certain people, are too certain that Nadal will win. This presumption annoys me and I aim to undermine it with a brand of analytical logic alien to some of these defenders of the faith.

I will seek to persuade you, dear reader, before your right eyebrow curls too skeptical an arch, that this year is a special year when certain constants are turned on their heads and change takes its rightful place as the only finality.

Here I intend to show with a slew of slides a provocative yet true case for Djokovic winning the French Open and winning it in what will be a convincing manner. The new Novak will not only beat Nadal, if the Spaniard even makes the final, he will beat him in straight sets.

There will not be a pair of Spanish mandibles mutilating the Roland Garros trophy this year. Just a pair of sinewy Serbian arms raising the trophy high to a collective breath of relief in France.

 

 

 

　

 

 

The King of Clay Pottery

4 and 0

The customary silverware seems to be absent from the Nadal trophy cabinet this year. King Rafa did win Monte Carlo, a clay event, in a final pitting him against David Ferrer. But this event most noticeably lacked his Serbian nemesis across the net. Even more noticeably, the Serbian thief seems to have ransacked the remaining Nadal clay season cabinet. What happened?

When Novak Djokovic has participated in a clay tournament this year he has won it. When Rafael Nadal has participated in the same tournament, Djokovic has still won it. Djokovic has beaten Nadal in both of their meetings on clay- on ‘fast’ clay and on ‘slow’ clay. Maybe we can try a medium rare-red clay with a chewier texture and a super-glue glaze on top next, though I will venture to say the result will probably be the same. King Rafa is 0-2 against Djokovic on clay this year and 0-4 overall.

At this point Rafa Nadal is more like King Charles I on clay and unfortunately for him, Novak Djokovic is his Cromwell. Rafa’s invincibility on clay is no more. Djokovic can go toe-to-toe with him on this surface well enough to come out on top as this year’s lopsided record demonstrates. And we are talking about this year’s Novak Djokovic - a new man altogether - lest we are forgetting.

The Best Forehand in the Game

Slam bam thank you ma'am.
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This must be an upsetting revelation to many. Sure. But it still has the merit of being true. It doesn’t quite have the versatility or creativity of Roger Federer’s -yet- but it is more consistent, more penetrating and heavier than the old master’s. I am not sure why this is still even debated. Depressing, yes, if you are a Federer fan like me but not really up for debate anymore. We can be sentimental about this or we can try to be objective about this. Quite simply, Novak Djokovic has the best forehand in the game right now.

The Australian Open semi-final demonstrated the brutal efficiency and effectiveness of the Djoker’s forehand against the previous best forehand in the game no less. But why ‘best’? Why not choose a safer phrase like ‘one of the best’?

First, Djokovic hits it deep into the backcourt usually some inches away from the baseline. He can hit it with top-spin or flat and with lots of pace. Second, he hits it with a consistency exceeding that of Rafael Nadal’s, winning his baseline rallies against all who would try this approach including the Clay King. Third, his cross-court forehand is lethal. It looks like the ‘swallow cut’ of a famous ancient Japanese samurai. A quick whirl and the ball is sent flying back deep into the Nadal backhand forcing him off the court. It can turn even a losing rally around very quickly for Djokovic. He hits the inside-out remarkably well too.

Who else has a forehand this consistent, this penetrating, this heavy and this versatile? You have the heaviness and the pace of the Del Potros and Berdyches and Soderlings of the tennis world but none of these guys’ forehands are as versatile or as consistent or as good on the move as Djokovic’s.

The Best Backhand in the Game

Bang!
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Novak’s backhand is, I suppose one could grudgingly admit, ‘old news’. We’ve been hearing about it ever since the man turned pro. So much promise. And up until this year not a whole lot of delivery on the early promise. But has it delivered this year! Oomphing cross-court, or zipping down the line, it is a thing of beauty or a thing of terror if it is being used against your favorite player. Really there is little comparison between Nadal’s backhand and the Djokovic backhand. The Djokovic is just better because it is more versatile and more effective. This disparity was really made obvious in their last match. Djokovic confidently hit Nadal’s cross-court forehand with his signature backhand-down-the-line and even if it wasn’t clean winners most of the time, it quickly put Nadal on his heels in the ongoing rally.

The Serve and Its Return

Boom!
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Djokovic attacks Nadal’s serves more than Nadal can attack Djokovic’s serves. Novak’s serves tend to be flat, heavy and fast. But their biggest strength is again the consistency - in his last match he was hitting his first serve at 75% - note, in a final against Nadal, on clay. Now, Nadal’s are also very consistent but they are not as flat or as fast. They have much more spin but Djokovic has shown more than capable with dealing with that spin. Or let’s just say, he is not as bothered by it as some others would be. Also, the Djokovic backhand can effectively retrieve serves out wide to its side unlike Roger who struggles with the height and spin.

On return of serve, these two men are equal. Both are equally talented in saving difficult opponents’ serves and putting the ball into play. However, because Nadal’s serve often lacks the mph’s of Djokovic’s serve, in a match between the two, the latter can do a little more with the serve of the former. This is confirmed by the return points won statistic where Djokovic is 45% to Nadal’s 38%.

The Big Points: Who is more clutch?

"Come on!!!" (In Serbian)
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In one long foreign word: Djokovic. Novak has played the big points bigger than anyone this year. He can get broken and he does get broken sometimes. But that’s not the point, if you’ll pardon the pun. He breaks others more often and when he is broken he does not panic. He also does not choke when tasked with closing out sets or matches. He has shown a new mental toughness that was absent in his early years.

In his matches with Nadal, late in the sets, Djokovic won the big points, breaking when he had to, or consolidating when he had to. These important psychological tendencies will serve the Serb well in another match-up with Rafa Nadal.

 

Bullying the Baseline Bully, Court Coverage and a Fine Touch

No more rallies with Djoko, no?
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Rafael Nadal and Novak Dkokovic are the two best baseline tennis players in the world today. But with the Djoker stabilizing and maturing his already talented forehands and backhands as described in the previous slides, he has taken to bully Nadal of all people from the baseline. He has been winning the baseline rallies and this on the toughest surface and this against its best specialist. Here I am tempted to say that Nadal is the preeminent baseline bully on the face of his making such a successful, dominant career out of that position. However, this is not a lifetime achievement award for play from that position. We are talking about the present. So at this point, I am arguing that Djokovic is undaunted by Nadal and is using a more penetrating and heavier forehand to push Nadal far behing the baseline.

At the net, both men exhibit intelligence and a fine touch. Not quite on the Federer level but...they don’t need to be. They execute drop shots really well, their volleys are proficient although they don’t venture to the net as often as they could with the skills they have. Of course, this is only natural because as I said, and as most people already know, they are both primarily baseline players.

Court coverage can be dissected into three major components: foot speed, agility and court awareness. I think Novak and Nadal are equals in two of these areas- agility and court awareness. And maybe even in terms of lateral movement foot speed Novak is equal to Nadal. But in forward movement I think Nadal exceeds him. Nadal still catches some drop shots he has no business catching. His foot speed is the best in the game.  A slight edge to Nadal in foot speed here. 

Expectations, Pressure and Intangibles

Aaarrgghhhh! Hulk Mad, Hulk Smash!
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Novak Djokovic is no longer a one-slam wonder. He has a second slam on his resume and a huge pressure has been lifted off his shoulders. He changed his diet, he changed his life and his attitude toward the game is brimming with self-belief. As a positive consequence, his results have been nothing short of spectacular. His win streak is 39-0. He has defeated his biggest rivals, eclipsing them in their matches and boosting his confidence to unprecedented levels. Let’s also understand that Djokovic had an opportunity to give up on a match here and there during this win streak - against Nadal in the Sony Ericsson Open when Nadal took the first set with a determined ferocity, when Federer came storming back in the second set in Indian Wells, when he was even way down in the second set in his semifinal in the Australian with Roger, when Murray had him by the throat in Rome. These were ample opportunities to just be satisfied with a smaller streak or lesser results and just pack it in. Djokovic did not - instead, in his toughest moments Djokovic came back and defeated his opponents- made them quit.

Whereas with history on the line, Nadal wilted at the Australian. Thigh muscles were spontaneously torn and many shirts perspired through when David Ferrer stiffly resisted in the quarter-finals. The excuses then followed like a deluge, his fans desperately grasping at straws.

What will happen then? Dare I put it in cold print? Bookies be damned, dare I will. So here it is:

With an unmatched mental toughness this year, the unearthing of some deep reservoir of self-belief, a confidence forged through winning and winning some more, and physically fit like an Ivan Lendl or a Lance Armstrong, Novak Djokovic will tear through his competition in the French Open and dismiss Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the final.