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NBA Playoffs 2011 Why the Bulls Will Extinguish the Heat and Move on to the NBA Finals

We saw the Chicago Bulls are capable of beating the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Actually we saw they're capable of blowing them out.

Derrick Rose's performance wasn't magical, but he demonstrated why he was the MVP this season. Taj Gibson came up large, (ask Dwyane Wade) and Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah dominated the boards.

The Heat have more top-end talent than the Bulls.

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But after Game 1, Chicago's confidence is riding sky high.

If the Heat came into the United Center and took the first game, or even kept it close, there would be reason to worry.

Also, with Rose, I think it'll be easier for the Bulls to steal a game on the road. The Bulls are another team that has played some uninspired basketball, and has now finally realized what they need to do to play like a complete team.

If they do that, they'll move on to face the Thunder in the NBA Finals.  

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Why the Thunder Beat the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals

Here goes nothing...my prediction for the Western Conference Finals. 

The Mavericks come in extremely hot, but have had more than a week off. Dirk Nowitzki is playing his best basketball, and Jason Terry made nine three-pointers his last time out. 

The Thunder finally put an end the Memphis Grizzlies upset bid in their Game 7 triumph. Durant poured in a seemingly easy 39-points.

It'd be easy to pick the favored Mavericks but I've got a notion Oklahoma City will make the NBA Finals.

Here's why.

The Thunder have played some sloppy basketball with a lot of turnovers in games with where they had pretty low shooting percentages.

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They know what they have to do to win now. They've experienced the ups and downs.

OKC must run through KD. Russell Westbrook can't get over-excited with his ability to score. He seems to understand he benefits his team the most when he facilitates the offense and scores close to the rim.

The benches are a push. James Harden actually may give the Thunder an edge.

If they harness their athleticism and play under control, Oklahoma City will win the Western Conference Finals.  

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NBA Playoffs 2011: Why Miami Heat Need Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier vs. Bulls

In their Game 1 loss, the Miami Heat were out-hustled, out-muscled, out-everything'ed on the offensive and defensive glass. 

The Bulls had 19 offensive boards to the Heat's six, and mustered only 33 total rebounds to Chicago's 45. 

You'd have to think this is an area in which Miami needs to improve their game and is something they'll put an onus on heading into Game 2. 

How can they remedy this problem?

Tom Haberstroh who covers the Heat for ESPN.com listed the activation of Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier as ways Miami can get back to this series in terms of rebounding:

Spoelstra didn't even play Anthony in the last regular season meeting between these two teams and kept him on the bench in favor of Dampier and Ilgauskas, who tower over Anthony. And looking at the numbers, you could see why Spoelstra preferred the 7-footers. When Anthony entered the game against Chicago off the bench in the regular season, the Bulls' offensive rebound rate jumped from 27.1 percent to 33.3 percent. But to lay this all on Anthony would be misguided. 

He then touched on Haslem:

In a perfect world, Haslem would come to the Heat's rescue riding a white horse. But the pre-injury Haslem isn't the same one that's sitting on the Heat bench right now. This version is a few steps slower and a lot more tentative. Spoelstra could give Haslem a longer look in Game 2, but such a move would be a sign of desperation, rather than a solution. 

Haberstroh lists playing Haslem and Dampier as ways the Heat can steal a game, but then backs off at the end of both his blurbs about each player.

Hmm...

Anyway, for as great as Joel Anthony has been blocking shots, giving Erick Dampier more minutes could be in the Heat's best interest. As for Haslem, it may be too soon for him returning from injury to see considerable time on the court, but it's do-or-die time, and even if he's a little tentative, maybe Erik Spoelstra should give him a shot.  

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NBA Playoffs 2011 The Three Keys for the Oklahoma City Thunder to Beat the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals

It's not going to be easy for the young, less experienced Oklahoma City Thunder, but they undoubtedly have the talent to upset the Dallas Mavericks. 

Dirk and the Mavericks have had more than a week off, and are coming off a stunning sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers. 

In an attempt to pinpoint exactly what the Thunder must do to win this series, Jack Armstrong of TSN.com posted an article with the three key factors for OKC:

1. Jump on them in Game 1

The Thunder need to go into Dallas in Game 1 and seize the moment in the first quarter, handle the runs and crowd and not wilt to steal away home court advantage.   Oklahoma City can set the tone for the series--right away, and they need to go for it, by being in attack mode from the jump.  By doing so, they could define the personality for the series.

Have to agree with Armstrong, although what he's saying is pretty obvious. The Thunder can't come out flat, especially in Dallas, because the Mavericks' home crowd can be deafening. A big first quarter will help build OKC's confidence.

2. Bench Play

The first-line players are laying it on the line on every play and fatigue sets in naturally during the flow of the game. It's essential that the Thunder's second unit makes a stand offensively with productivity and they must contest three point shooters and control dribble penetration from Barea and Terry.

Very true. This, to me, won't be as difficult. The Mavericks' bench is solid, but the Thunders' is just as good and probably more athletic and physical.

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Lastly, Armstrong pointed to the front-court of OKC:

3. Big Men need to Play Big

Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Drew Collison and Nazr Mohammed have to score some points to keep the Mavs' big men honest so they don't cheat too much defensively in the area of Durant and Westbrook. 

This could determine the series. The front-courts for both teams aren't outstanding or the focus of their offenses, but they'll obviously factor into offensive rebounding and second chance points. 

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NBA Playoffs 2011 LeBron James and Dwyane Wade Have to Consistently Attack Rim Against Bulls

The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls played to a 48-48 halftime tie in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

It was seemingly either team's game heading into the second-half. 

But the LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, who didn't have horrible games, never asserted themselves as the great slashers they are in the second stanza, while the Bulls' tenacious offensive rebounding led to many second and third chance opportunities. 

James and Wade were perfect from the line, but only went 4-for-4. 

That can't happen again if the Heat want to stay in this series.

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Neither All-Star attempted a shot from the charity stripe in the second half, a testament for both players settling. 

They're headliners in this league and get their fair share of calls going toward the hoop. 

James has shown us a new found knack for making the clutch outside jumper and Wade has become a deadly mid-range jump shooter himself, but they best serve their teams when they attack the rim. 

Both guys should be shooting 10+ free throws each game, and if they're not, they'll have a countless amount of lay-ups and dunks inside. 

Being aggressive is both James' and Wade's best trait, so they must do so in Game 2, or Miami could be in a lot of trouble. 

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Why Derrick Rose is NBA's Best Player

In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Derrick Rose scored 28 points to lead his Bulls to a dominating 103-82 win over the Miami Heat. 

He didn't take over the game like he did against the Hawks in Game 3, or turn in a triple double. 

It actually was Chicago's bench that outplayed the role player for Miami. 

But ESPN's J.A. Adande made an interesting point in his most recent column:

The simplest way to define best player is to ask yourself whom you'd pick first if you needed to win a playoff game. And at the moment, nobody has won more games in these playoffs than Rose and the Chicago Bulls.

In the same article, Adande quoted former NBA great Rod Strickland who was at Game 1:

Umm, he's close, if he's not. Obviously you had three of the, probably, top five out there. I mean, he's up there. I don't know if I want to crown anybody the best player in the league, but he's definitely an MVP and he's definitely one of the best.

I think Adande is right here. And I'm trying extremely hard not to become one of those "prisoners of the moment".

Without a doubt Rose's Game 1 is fresh in our minds, but think about what he did all regular season to earn the MVP. Then think about what he's done thus far in the postseason.

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He's matched up against teams with length, size and athleticism, has fought through injury, has been nearly unstoppable getting to the hoop and has stretched the defense with outside shooting.

Sure, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and others may have had better three year stretches, but right now, it's not crazy calling Derrick Rose NBA's best player.  

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Dirk Nowitzki isn't the easiest player to guard in NBA History.

At 7'0'', has unlimited range, is fleet-footed and can score in the most awkward and unorthodox ways possible.

ESPN recently published a blog post outlining the three-ways to stop Nowitzki, by looking back on his statistical history. Scott Brooks might want to take a look:

1.Defend him out to the three-point line

Nowitzki shot 50.2 percent during the regular season from the field outside the paint. That was the highest percentage in the league among players whose majority of shots came outside the paint and had at least 500 field-goal attempts outside the paint.

Makes sense. The further away from the basket, the lower the shooting percentage. Something the Thunder must do. However, point No. 2 seems more imperative to me;

2. Double-team when the shooters are off the court

The vast majority of double teams on Nowitzki result in passes to spot-up shooters. Often, these passes result in 3-pointers. As the Lakers found out in Game 4, the Mavericks don’t shy away from an open 3-pointer. During the regular season, 27.4 percent of the Mavericks field goal attempts were 3-pointers, the third-highest percentage in the NBA. 

After the Lakers were exploited by Dirk's passing out of the double team, you'd have to think Oklahoma City will put an onus on stopping this. Still, it's easier said than done.

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Lastly, the post pointed this out about stopping Nowitzki:

3. Keep him off the free-throw line

Nowitzki is the only 7-footer to rank in the top 100 in NBA history in both free throw percentage (14th) and three-point percentage (86th). He has the highest free throw percentage (87.7 percent) and highest three-point field goal percentage (38.1) in NBA history for a seven-footer.

This might be the hardest part of Dirk's game to stop, because he's the master of pump-fakes and knows how to draw the foul better than anyone.

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NBA Playoffs 2011 The Mavericks Can't Rely Soley on Three-Pointer Against Thunder in Western Conference Finals

The Dallas Mavericks put on a shooting exhibition against the Lakers in their series-clinching week more than a week ago.

In a game when the Lakers openly stated their game plan was to keep the Mavericks off the three-point line, they went 20-32 from distance.

They won three other games in the Lakers series without such prolific shooting efforts, but the trifecta has become something that sets them into NBA title contending status.

It'll be a storyline to follow throughout the Western Conference Finals, especially because the Thunder aren't exactly known for their defensive prowess.

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Oklahoma City is very long, even on the perimeter, but it'll be difficult to defend the three-point line consistently.

In the end, I think the Thunder will put their defensive emphasis on defending the three, and will do and admirable job. They've got the athletes to do so. Their backcourt can defend the jump shot much better than the Lakers.

This won't end the Mavericks chances to win the series, but it'll force them to play a more balanced game to make the NBA Finals.  

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Why Taj Gibson Is X-Factor for Bulls in Eastern Conference Finals

Taj Gibson's high-flying facial over Dwyane Wade and his insane put-back dunk late in the fourth-quarter are what made the highlights this morning on SportsCenter.

Yes, those two emphatic throw downs showed the fans the Bulls are what get you pumped for this year's Eastern Conference Finals, they were just two individual plays that symbolized what Gibson brings to the Bulls lineup.

He's 6'9'', 225, with the athletic ability of a shooting guard.

As was pointed out several times during Game 1, Gibson can guard every position on the court and makes his living grabbing loose balls, tipping offensive rebounds out to Derrick Rose, and providing a huge momentum-shifting spark with monster dunks.

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He'll rarely have a huge game scoring, and won't dominate with 10+ rebounds, but he's a guy the Heat, right now, don't have an answer for.

Gibson can guard Wade one possession, move down to Joel Anthony, then block Mike Bibby on a drove to the hoop.

Miami must get a similar boost from one of their bench players, or Gibson, who's usually fresh and energized when he's on the court, could push the Bulls past the Heat.

It's not always about the superstars.

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Russell Westbrook Asserting Himself as True Point Guard

Russell Westbrook was the subject of criticism earlier in these playoffs when he took many ill-advised jump shots in a few Thunder defeats. 

Anytime his shot total exceeded Kevin Durant's, and Oklahoma City lost, Westbrook was thought to be an ultra-athletic point guard who tried and ultimately failed to be a shooting guard.

Why was he taking jumper after jumper when he's one of the best finishers at the rim and two-time leading scorer Kevin Durant is on the wing?

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In Game 7 against the Grizzlies, when many Thunder fans were worried Westbrook would turn in another 30-shot performance, he gave his finest, true point guard effort of these playoffs.

His 14-point, 14-assist, 10-rebound triple double is precisely what the Thunder want from their point guard, and it's something he's capable of almost every game. 

When he facilitates for his teammates, starts the transition game, and scores on occasion, the Thunder are almost impossible to stop. 

If Westbrook can continue to shift his role from scoring point guard to do-it-all point guard, Oklahoma City will give Dallas all they can handle, and then some. 

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Forget Derrick Rose.

He's amazing, but the Heat have three pretty amazing players that can diffuse his efforts.

Forget the role player's performances.

Both clubs have veteran guys that can provide a spark off the bench.

Rebounding, now that's an underrated aspect of this series that could ultimately determine the winner. It's one area in which the Bulls have a distinct edge over the Heat.

Joakim Noah, Omer Asik, Taj Gibson, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng all crash the boards hard, creating tipped ball's that provide Chicago with second, third and fourth chances on the offensive end.

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No team can win getting destroyed offensive glass.

The Heat are quite the opposite. In Game 1 they had 6 offensive boards to the Bulls 19. (Chicago won the overall rebounding battle 45 to 33.

The Bulls hustle plays in the paint essentially allow them to win games with just average shooting percentages.

Also, there's nothing more deflating on the defensive end than giving up a basket on the second or third opportunity.

Miami's one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but if they don't want to fall into an 0-2 hole, they'll need to really work, scrape and hustle in the rebounding department against Chicago.

They can't afford to get blown away on the glass anymore.

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Kevin Durant's Play Will Determine Western Conference Finals

Yes, it's obvious that Kevin Durant is the best player on the Thunder, and that he'll play a major role in the Western Conference Finals.

He'll get his shots, and most likely score his points, but in this series, Durant has to lead his team in every facet of the game to reach the NBA Finals.

What I mean is, Durant has to demand the basketball, make his team trust in him when things aren't going perfectly.

Nothing against Russell Westbrook, Eric Maynor or James Harden, but when Durant isn't the focal point of the offense, Oklahoma City's play suffers.

Now that's not to say Durant should shoot 35+ times a game, but he needs to assert himself early to set up his role-playing teammates with open shots in the second-half.

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Playing against Dirk Nowitzki, another guy with center size and shooting guard touch from the outside, the Thunder must showcase Durant to match Dallas' most lethal player.

OKC has proven to be a balanced team, but in the Western Conference Finals, the two-time scoring leader must play like he believes he's the best player in the NBA.

If he does, everything else should fall into place, and the Thunder could pull off the upset.

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NBA Playoffs 2011 Derrick Rose Presents Challenge the Miami Heat Haven't Faced Yet

Derrick Rose didn't take over Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, but he orchestrated the offensive beautifully and still managed to pour in 28 points.

The Heat dealt with an upstart Philadelphia 76ers team in the first-round, who gave them more problems than they originally expected, and used their athleticism to exploit an older, slower Boston Celtics team, that certainly possessed the experience and ability to beat them if they didn't come to play each night.

But now, Derrick Rose presents a new kind of challenge the Heat haven't faced, and the Miami Herald's Israel Gutierrez points out, it's not going to be easy:

Rose is that player, and he won’t just test the Heat defense every second he’s on the floor, he also will test the Heat’s unity. Defending Rose, the MVP with Wade’s quicks and MJ’s hops, will get so frustrating at times that it will test just how committed these Heat defenders are to their system, to their teammates and to their coach.

Gutierrez hits the nail on the head with that one. Rose isn't just a scorer that can frustrate you by getting to the rim and finishing. He'll test your mental and psychological focus. With a team loaded with superstars it's going to be difficult for the Heat to stick with head coach Erik Spoelstra plans for them every evening.

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Also, their used to being far and away, the most athletic group of five on the court, but with Rose, the Bulls can match-up with lateral quickness, speed in the transition game, and playmaking ability.

Rose is the equalizer in this series.

The Heat might have been favored coming in, but we saw in Game 1, Chicago isn't going to lay down to the Big Three.