(I decided to split this surprisingly long O's preview into two parts. To jump right to the part about the 2011 O's click here. Otherwise, I recommend reading this first part for plenty of Buck jokes, career analysis and perspective necessary to understand where the 2011 O's currently stand.)

(To view this article, or takes on the rest of the Major Leagues, the NFL and more, visit soapboxsportsbyte or follow @soapBxSprtsByte) 

AL East Preview

4^th Place: Baltimore Orioles

I’ve always felt that Buck Showalter has been one of those sports figures that has never been quite properly ‘rated.’

He has to at least be given some credit for laying the stepping stones for the late-'90s Yankees dynasty, as he lead Stump Merrill’s perennial doormat back into the Stump-less spotlight by navigating two strike-shortened regular seasons quite nicely.He finished his final three seasons 54 games above .500 and led the franchise to its first playoff berth in many a moon.

Then he gave David Cone an aneurysm, forgot that he had the most formidable setup man/closer duo of the century by turning to Jack McDowell—who had never before appeared in relief in his eight-year career—instead of keeping Mariano in the game, and later turning to John Wettland, and (surprise!) ended up single-handedly blowing the Yanks/Mariners ’95 division series, only able to look on as Edgar Martinez’s line drive galloped towards the left field corner and a certain 25-year old brimming with promise nicknamed "Junior" slid safely and jubilantly into the plate.

The same New York fans and media members who had spoke of Buck so endearingly in recent months were soon referring to him with a ‘Schm', a ‘F’ and a ‘Lame D’ in place of the ‘B’ that commences his nickname.

Jay Bell celebrates his $34 million extension, 20 percent of which went to BALCO Laboratories.

Needless to say, for reasons that likely involve a pre-dementia George Steinbrenner tirade and several broken pieces of skybox furniture at the Kingdome (the official story is that is was a “contract dispute”), Buck bolted for the somehow-greener pastures of the not-yet-expanded expansion Arizona Diamondbacks that off-season.

After baseball opened for business in Phoenix more than two years later, Buck’s D-Backs improved from 65 wins in ’98 to 100 W’s in ’99, with a roster that had to have set the unofficial record for “Most-Guys-Who-Took-Steroids-and-Then-'Inexplicably'-Became-Superstars.” Jay Bell—Jay Bell!—who had seven times in his career hit 16 homeruns or less, belted 38 juiced baseballs into the seats. Luis Gonzalez hit 26 jacks that year, 31 the next year, 57 in’01. Yes, the same guy that complied 107 home runs over the first eight years of his career hit 114 jacks over a three-year span in his early 30s. Someone punch Bud Selig in the jaw the next time he says he had no idea what was going on.

And I didn’t even mention Steve Finley and Matt Williams, two more players who would have made excellent spokesmen in a “Before/After” ad for BALCO Laboratories.

The mid-90’s MLB: Where Brady Anderson hitting 50 homeruns happens.

(Little known steroids-era defining fact: Anderson finished ’96 with a ludicrous statline of 50 HR, 110 RBI, 21 SB and a .297/.396/.637 while playing a premium defensive position but finished ninth in the AL MVP voting. Of the eight players who finished in front of him, Juan-Gone, A-Rod, Mo Vaughn, Raffy “Period.” Palmiero and Big Mac have all been implicated for steroid use. Albert Belle was implicated for the use of just about everything besides steroids, including corked bats. Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas, finishing one spot ahead of Anderson, managed to accomplish the not-so-easy feat of having a “Big” in his nickname in the era of Barry Bonds’ hat size and David Wells. In completely unrelated news, the late Ken Caminiti won the NL MVP in the same season. What was that you said about not noticing anything, Bud?)

Brady Anderson: "Call BALCO Laboratories, and maybe you too can hit 50 homeruns."

Buck got canned after the ’00 season, when his roster full of juiced Goliaths turned back into the Davids they actually were, although it seems to be a condemnation towards Showalter that a team that had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in their primes finished in third place in a perpetually weak division.

In ’03, he moved on to the Rangers, where he never finished higher than third place, but won the 2004 AL Manager of the Year award when Texas won 89 games despite having four starters finish with ERA’s over 4.75. I can’t decide if that’s a testament to Buck’s abilities to make the best of a bad situation, or one to his failures to coax anything resembling competence out of his starting rotation. 

Two years later—for the second time in his career—Buck was fired from a team he had recently won manager of the year for, joining then-Florida manager Joe Girardi on the scrap heap after Girardi had been fired for winning 78 games with a roster with an average age of 25.4. In another completely unrelated piece of news, 1,200 people showed up for last night’s Marlins game at (Insert Corporate Sponsor Here) Stadium in downtown Miami.

So over the course of 14 years, seven of which were spent without gainful Major League employment, Buck had managed three teams, been fired three times, and never been with any of those teams longer than four years. Somehow, he had also won two manager of the year awards and turned three fledgling franchises around. But two of those teams ended up winning the World Series the season directly following his departure.

Welcome to beautiful AIG Stadium, right in the heart of downtown Miami!

Along the way, he had been underrated as a rookie skipper, overrated for winning games in the uncompetitive strike seasons, reviled for his strategic ‘discrepancies’ in the ’95 playoffs, overrated again for apparently hiring Victor Conte as the team trainer of the ’99 D’Backs, and was demonized and canned—again—when Jay Bell stopped using the ‘cream’ and the ‘clear’ and reverted back to Gold Bond and Gatorade Ice. Then, in Texas, he embodied some impossible concoction of overrated and underrated that I can’t even decipher. My head is spinning.

Ugh. Nine-hundred words later I haven’t even mentioned anything about the city of Baltimore or the O’s. But I think all—well, at least most—of that was of import to the understanding of where the Buck-O’s are right now.

Everyone nearly soiled themselves when Showalter led the Birds to a .600 winning percentage last season following the firing of managers Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel. But was this truly a turnaround of a long-lost AL powerhouse, or simply another case of a new manager exciting a talented young roster into overachievement? Because after all, it’s hard to say this roster isn’t talented. And after the O’s started 2011 4-0, the Buck-O’s redemption stories started flooding the media like tales of Charlie Sheen asking for $12 million an episode to come back to "Two and a Half Men".

But then a funny thing happened, and the O’s went 8-13 to end April, currently sitting at 15-19--a figure that's actually worse than several starts in recent memory. The Buck-O’s stories have stopped. The ‘overratedness’ appears to have once again been replaced with ‘underratedness.’ It’s mind-bending.

It’s not clear whether it’s Buck’s fault, but several of his players continue to underperform. Not surprising or particularly worrisome for the O’s future are the struggles of the mortal remains of Vlad Guerrero, nor those of Zombie Derek Lee. Ditto for Mark Reynolds, who seems to have brought both his love of the letter ‘K’ and his sub-.200 average over from the Senior Circuit. Brian Roberts appears to be on his last legs.

The distressing thing for not only Buck’s legacy, but the O’s current and future prognosis, is that the young bluechippers who were supposed to bring about an end to the suffering of the last 10-plus years continue to disappoint. Adam Jones, once the centerpiece of a trade for then-ace Erik Bedard, has been productive, but somewhat of a disappointment. He has all the tools to be a top-tier, five-tool centerfielder, but seems not to have put it together yet. He’s still only 25, but this will be his fourth big league season, long after most players with tools of his caliber are able to string together a great full season.

Although it can’t be forgotten that the second half of his 2009 All-Star season, where he struggled down the stretch, may have been derailed somewhat by injuries. There’s still plenty of time, but Matt Wieters seems to be trending dangerously close to the path of hyped prospect-turned-middling Major Leaguer. Wieters was touted as much as any incoming prospect not named Strasburg in recent memory, but hasn’t quite put it together just yet. He was impressive in a little more than half of a season in ’09, but last year was a disappointment. One could write that off as a sophomore slump, but he’s started this season equally poorly. Again, sample sizes aren’t worth much, if anything, but it’s distressing nonetheless.

Potential ace Zach Britton. Here's to hoping he doesn't go the way of Daniel Cabrera.

Nick Markakis saw a large power dropoff last year, dropping from 18 HRS and 101 RBI in ’09 to 12 and 60, respectively, but also saw his OBP rise over 20 points. This may have been a conscious decision by Markakis to try to get on base more, but it may not be the right direction for a team that could use some pop in the middle of the order.

The jury is out on Arrieta, who had a 4.66 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 1.08 K:BB ratio last season, and has come back this year thus far with a 4.17, 1.23 and 2.17, all drastic improvements.

Disturbing, however, are the performances of Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman. Bergesen burst onto the scene in ’09 with a stellar rookie campaign, but finished with an ERA hovering around five last season, and is well above that figure so far this year. Tillman has shown little of his purported promise over 29 big league starts spread over three seasons, posting a combined 5.90 ERA.

So where does this perplexing combination of over-the-hill stars and underachieving youngsters stand? Well, even with improvement it's hard to see them competing with the three AL East juggernauts in the near future, especially because Toronto is a now a factor with a solid young pitching staff of its own.

But this is a staff with four 25-and-under potential aces, a team with a supposed messianic young catcher and a five-tool outfielder. Additional incoming recruits are scarce, although 18-year-old shortstop Manuel Machado is promising as Baseball America’s 14^th-ranked prospect. Even more exciting to O’s fans, Peter Angelos has somehow been convinced to finally spend his immense fortune on improving his ballclub. It’s just been on the wrong places thus far.

So yes, the future is still bright for the Buck-O’s. But these next two seasons—likely with Showalter at the helm—could be the key to the next decade of Baltimore baseball. What role a manager can play in the development of young players is debatable, but it is absolutely crucial that the organization does everything in its power to salvage the extremely promising careers of several young players.

Will Matt Wieters be able to regain his offensive prowess as a 28 year old .245 hitter?

Will Adam Jones be able to realize his massive potential at the same age, or will he continue to be a competent imitation of the spectacular player he seems to have the potential to be?

What are the chances that Bergesen and Tillman can turn around their careers after 3 or 4 seasons of Buck-era Texas-sized ERAs?

All of these things are possible, but it’s awfully rare for a five- or six-year veteran to suddenly turn into a star. Maybe once we have those answers we will be able to properly understand Buck’s place as a Major League manager.

Who am I kidding? If the Buck-O’s turn into winners, he turns into Casey Stengel. If the youngsters flame out, he’s Stump Merrill.

I give up.

PREDICTION: 74-88, 4^th in AL East

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