I was about to start on a post about the finest first basemen in the history of baseball.
I had come up with a big list of the potential top ten candidates of the top of my head.
This list had included Don Mattingly, who isn’t really a candidate, but it felt weird not to have him on the first list.
Looking at the numbers, I got to thinking about something. Now Don Mattingly is not often seriously considered as a candidate for the Hall of Fame. It often seems that, even among those who support his candidacy, more wish he was viable than actually think he should be enshrined.
Certainly, at his best, Mattingly was a fantastic baseball player. Unfortunately, his best did not last past the age of 30, and with a peak that short, you have to be Sandy Koufax-good to be considered one of the best ever.
This is not what I was thinking about though. What I was thinking about was Keith Hernandez.
It is hard to understand, given the similarities in their profiles, how Mattingly is near-universally considered the more valuable of the two star New York first basemen of the 1980s.
Both Mattingly and Hernandez were fantastic defensive first basemen. However, while Mattingly was the best, in his prime, in his league—saving a career 31 runs more than the average first baseman—Hernandez was quite probably the best of all time, saving an astounding 211 runs above average.
Both won an MVP award. While Mattingly had the big, 35-home run season, neither was a big power guy for a first sacker, and both players hit a lot of doubles.
Mattingly had a career OPS of .859, Hernandez’s was .820. This difference is much smaller than it seems however, given that OPS does not give fair weight to On Base Percentage. While Mattingly, had more power than Hernandez (SLG of .471 and .436), Keith got on base much more, (.384 to .358).
There is not a question in my mind that, of the two, Keith Hernandez had the more valuable career. This may seem shocking, but look below at their total numbers.
Mattingly:
AB-7003, H-2153, D-443, T-20, HR-222, R-1007, RBI-1099, SB-14, .307/.358/.471/.859
Hernandez:
AB-7370, H-2182, D-426, T-60, HR-162, R-1124, RBI-1071, SB-98, .296/.384/.436/.820
These lines are pretty similar, with perhaps a slight edge to Mattingly, although this advantage disappears when considering Keith’s vastly superior defensive work. However, there is one statistic I have not mentioned: walks.
Don Mattingly drew 588 walks in his career. Hernandez drew 1070. This is an enormous difference. Keith Hernandez (if we include HBP—a fairly insignificant 32 for Keith vs 21 for Don), reached base 522 more times than Mattingly, in only 860 more plate appearances. This creates a massive difference in career value.
In large part due to these 522 extra times on base, and in large part due to the aforementioned difference in defensive performance, Keith Hernandez was—according to Baseball Prospectus—worth 113 wins above replacement player (WARP) in his career, far surpassing Mattingly’s 70.
Obviously, first basemen are not generally judged primarily on their defensive ability. Because first is a traditional source of offense, the importance of a brilliant defensive first-sacker is often ignored. Keith Hernandez was the Ozzie Smith of first baseman, and is quite possibly—judging by the statistical record—deserving of a place in the Hall of Fame.
As a postscript: I am not forgetting the cocaine, the sexism, the fact that Hernandez was known as a clubhouse cancer, that he was run out of town, and so forth. I am not actually promoting his real life place in the HOF (although I am not necessarily opposed to it).
I merely wish to compare the career records of the two men, and show that Hernandez has not received the credit he is due.
10 comments Last one added 3 months ago — Leave a Comment
John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Hernandez was hands-down the best fielding first baseman of his era. Mattingly admitted that he learned the position by watching Hernandez.
Don was a better hitter....but Keith was a better fielder. You could make arguments for both.
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Zander Freund about 1 year ago
Agree completely—Keith was better defensively. But let's be honest (with all due respect to Ben's point): defense just isn't as important for 1B than it is for other positions.
I mean: you'd take Frank Thomas over J.T. Snow, right? What about Lou Gehrig vs. Gil Hodges?
Now take a position like catcher: Mike Piazza or Pudge Rodriguez? Javy Lopez or Bob Boone? More difficult, isn't it?
As for offense: I'd say Mattingly edges out Hernandez.
Career wise, they are somewhat comparable, as Keith's OBP is about .30 higher than Mattingly's, but Mattingly's SLG is about .30 higher than Keith's.
But peak value, you have to go with Mattingly. From 85' through 87', Donnie Baseball played at a level never quite replicated by Hernandez throughout his career.
A look at their best seasons is somewhat revealing in this sense:
I'd also like to add that Keith Hernandez's best years were definitely with St. Louis, and not New York—whereas Don Mattingly played all 14 seasons of his career with the Yanks. That alone seems to end any notion that Hernandez could have been the best 1b in the big apple during the 80's.
If Donnie walked more, this wouldn't even be a debate. The fact that he didn't makes it a close call, but I'd still give the edge to Mattingly as offensively speaking he's better, and that's the primary factor that first basemen should be judged on in my book.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
I disagree that Hernandez' best years were with St. Louis.
He made the Mets contenders and as a first baseman, he was an impact player on the field. How many other 1st basemen in the history of the game ran a team's defense? He did. How many teams can say their best defensive player was their first baseman?
He took away the sacrifice bunt; he turned the 3-6-3; he had incredible range; he acted as an on-field pitching coach and he kept baserunners in check at first base.....Keith was simply better than anyone I've ever seen.
He revolutionized the position. His FOLLOWERS and PROTEGES include Mark Grace, Will Clark, JT Snow and YES...Don Mattingly!! among others....
This argument is not about numbers to me....its the intangibles and the impact the player left behind.
Hernandez left bigger footprints as far as I'm concerned.
JF
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Ben Feldman about 1 year ago
In regard to Zander. It is true that defense at 1st is not as important as it is at say...shorstop, catcher, etc. Obviously I would not take JT Snow over Frank Thomas, or Gild Hodges over Lou Gehrig. However, Keith was offensively close enough to Mattingly that the MASSIVE difference in defense more than makes up for any offensive shortcomings (a point to which I am still somewhat unconvinced).
By the same token, shortstops are judged (or used to be), by their defense. But I'd still take Derek jeter over Adam Everett, even though the latter can play circles around the former. If the difference is negligible, go with what the position traditionally demands, if the difference is big enough, go with the difference.
Hernandez had 4 10+ WARP seasons in his career, 2 with St. Louis, 2 with NY. he played well longer for St. Louis, but was just as good in NY when he did play.
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Dave Metrick about 1 year ago
Donnie Baseball was the best . His career and his numbers suffered for two reasons.
1. His bad back
2. In the late '80s and early '90s the Yanks were so bad that teams just picthed around him. Why give Mattingly something he could hit when you could just pitch around him and take your chances on Jesse Barfield or Steve Balboni?
He's my all-time favorite Yankee and I always feel sorry for him because his career was basically sandwiched between the World Series appearance in '81 and, of course, the Yanks winning it all in '96.
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Ben Feldman about 1 year ago
I agree that Mattingly *could* have been the best, but if we gave credit to everyone for what they didnt do, but might have, we would be putting Eric Davis in the HOF, talking about how TOny COnigliaro was one of the greatest power hitters in baseball history, and giving CY Young awards to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Although Mattingly could have been one of the greatest players ever if his back would have held up. But when it comes to defense, Keith was definitely the superior fielder. Keith did things that nobody did at the position when it came to fielding balls. Also, Keith won 2 world series rings, 1 with the ST.Louis and 1 with the Mets. Mattingly didn't even sniff the postseason until 95' and didnt even get past the first round. Although he did play well in that series against Seattle. BTW, I didn't get a chance to ever see Donnie do an episode of Seinfeld because the guy had the charisma that equaled to a water bucket. Keith was a showman and thats why he will be immortalized by not only being one of the greatest to play the position but also for being the guy that dated Elaine.
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Ben Feldman about 1 year ago
"Elaine, you don;t know the first thing about first base"
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danny m about 1 year ago
I'm a big mattingly fan and an unbiased met and yankee fan. Looking at the stats, it seems as if hernandez was a slightly better offensive player as well. The difference in walks is important.he was also much more dangerous on the base paths. I think mattingly fans need to believe don was the best because he was the "classic yankee" that bridged the gap between the championship teams of 81 and 96. Another reason some argue don is better, is because for three or four years, no one in the sport was better. The overall better player was hernandez...clearly. He enjoyed a long, productive career and was the leader of one of the greatest championship teams ever. In addition, he also won a championship with the cards.
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Whiskey 3 months ago
you forgot to mention the fact that Hernandez played about 6 more seasons than Mattingly. The bottom line is.... on Don Mattingly's best day and Keith Hernandez's best day.... who would you rather have? In my opinion.. no doubt about it..... Mattingly.. Hernandez played for some good teams and Mattingly played mostly on Terrible Yankee teams. Think what Mattingly wouldve done in that 86 met lineup!!
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