MLB Quick Hits: Sabathia Talk/LCS Picks

Daisuke Matsusaka, similar to Kazmir, has not been efficient with his pitches. The Rays need to make him throw strikes, showing sound plate discipline, because when he does throw it over the plate, he is tough to hit (lowest opponents’ batting average in the majors).

The other pitching match-ups are equally as intriguing. Which Kazmir will show up? The guy who was so dominant in June and July or post-All-Star break Kaz?

Jon Lester has been excellent in the postseason, and has really emerged as a front-line starter. Lester, in fact, seems to be the ace of the Boston staff right now. It will be tough for Tampa Bay to scrape runs across against him. Ditto for Josh Beckett, who had a down year but is still one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.

Matt Garza, though, can shut any offense down on any given night in his own right.

All-in-all, the pitching match-ups seem pretty even, though Andy Sonnanstine is a better fourth option than Tim Wakefield.

The Rays have the better defense, having converted more balls put into play into outs than any other team in the majors, and I think the edge in bullpen.

So, while anything can happen (cannot stress this enough), I choose the Rays if they can continue to throw strikes, catch the ball and get the timely hits, from nearly everyone on the roster, like they have been doing all along.

The key for them, though, is to get into the Boston bullpen early and often. Papelbon is lights out, but the link to the closer has been a problem at times. Manny Delcaremen and Justin Masterson have helped a great deal in the second half, but the Rays will have an easier time scoring runs off the likes of Mike Timlin than a Beckett, Matsuzaka, or Lester.

Another "X factor" to be considered is home field advantage. Both the Rays and Red Sox are much better at home than on the road. Tropicana Field has been kryptonite for Boston in ’08, albeit in a small sample size, and the Rays had the majors’ best record at home.

Still, the Red Sox were not too far behind, as they love playing in front of the hometown crowd at Fenway Park—a tough environment to play in for an opposing team.

Since the series starts at the Trop, where the Rays are 20-2 in games with 30,000-plus fans in attendance (the cowbell effect), they have the edge in this regard. Though they took two out of three at Fenway in September, winning at least one game on the road will be quite a challenge.

It is going to be exciting, but, due to all of the factors and my tremendous bias for the new pride of St. Pete (although my cousin plays in the Red Sox organization), I am going with the Rays in seven.

 

National League

I am a bit lazy to make a case right now, after going on a seemingly endless tangent about the ALCS, but I think the Philadelphia Phillies will take the cake in the series.

Cole Hamels is a stud, though he does not have the mid-90s heat. Brad Lidge has been a stud all year, having converted 41 saves in 41 tries. And the Phillies also have a number of great relievers to bridge the gap to Lidge.

Plus, Ryan Howard has been on an insane tear since September. Howard, the NL leader in homers and RBI, has posted a ridiculous .1000-plus OPS over the past 30 games, picking the right time to get hot while doing enough in 30 days to enter the MVP conversation.

Pat Burrell can mash as well. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins do a nice job of setting the table. And, in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, they are going to score some runs.

Sinkerball pitcher Lowe will negate some of that, but I like the Phillies at home, and see them taking at least one game in Los Angeles.

Manny Ramirez is on fire, too, Rafael Furcal is back, the Dodgers’ pitching has been excellent and the match-ups favor the flavor of the month in the NL. But I am not buying into them yet.

Sure,they made fools out of the best team in the NL last week, and Man-Ram is playing on a whole other level. The Phillies, however, were the better team all year, in a tougher division.

I might be a fool for going against Joe Torre, but the October magic has not worked for him since 2000.

Phillies in six.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

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