Red Sox Gambling There'll Be a Game Seven

Alas, it will not be that easy. Mike Lowell's absence is a significant blow to the Sox's offense, David Ortiz hasn't been the same since his wrist injury, and J.D. Drew's back could flare up at any time. Jason Varitek, a switch-hitter, is batting .201 against right-handed pitching, and rookie Jed Lowrie hit .213 in September before reviving in the Division Series.

The Rays lack a Lester, but their rotation posted the second-best ERA in the AL during the regular season, behind only the Blue Jays. The Rays' bullpen, meanwhile, has emerged as a force, allowing one run in 11 2/3 innings in the Division Series. Incredibly, eight of the Rays' 10 victories over the Sox this season were by one or two runs.

Right-hander Grant Balfour isn't a closer, but he's throwing like Papelbon. Ortiz and Drew will see three different lefty relievers—J.P. Howell, Trever Miller, and David Price. While Price didn't pitch in the Division Series, his velocity and hard slider could make him a difficult matchup for Ortiz.

Papelbon is far superior to Rays closer Dan Wheeler, but the Sox's bridge to Papelbon is a concern. Manager Terry Francona obviously does not trust Manny Delcarmen; otherwise, he would not be using Justin Masterson, a rookie, so late in games. Masterson, mind you, is no slouch. But he showed signs of cracking in Game four of the Division Series.

The Rays are more athletic, and their offense is at full strength now that Carl Crawford is back from his finger injury. The Sox's vast edge in experience cannot be dismissed, but the Rays are a more complete team. By the end of this series, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton could be major stars.

I can't believe I'm writing this, but everything adds up.

My pick: Rays in six.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.

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