Notre Dame is unranked at 4-1 for the first time in program history as they head to North Carolina to face a No. 23 Tar Heel team with an identical record.
And just to drive the point home, the Irish are eight point underdogs.
Why?
It's the same reasoning that a few bold college football pundits used to explain how a team coming off a 3-9 campaign could turn around and win 10 games in 2008.
Scheduling.
Leading up to this season, Notre Dame's was expected to be uncharacteristically soft and front-loaded with home games—just what the fledgling Irish needed to recover from a forgettable fall.
But six weeks into the season, closer examination shows the Notre Dame slate is anything but fluffy, and in fact when compared against those of other top 25 programs, would be better categorized as balanced and challenging.
According to the Toughest Schedule report available at ncaa.org, the Irish rank 54th in cumulative opposition—a measure of past and future opponents’ win-loss record.
Of the teams in this week’s top 25, exactly 10 have a schedule that would be considered “softer” than Notre Dame’s, including top 10 teams like Alabama, Penn State, USC and BYU.
Admittedly, the NCAA’s strength of schedule is a shallow, objective statistic. It doesn’t consider where or when you play your opponents, or who your opponents have played—which is why the BCS uses a more comprehensive strength of schedule measure.
To use a familiar example, Irish faithful will rightly point out that their strength of schedule always takes a hit about this time of year when the Spartans go in the tank. However, it is not uncommon for Michigan State to bring an unbeaten record and their best game plan into Notre Dame week.
So let’s look at some of those other factors in Notre Dame’s case.
Not only do the majority of their opponents have respectable records, several should compete for conference titles. Michigan State, North Carolina, and Boston College are very much in the thick of things. Pittsburgh and USC should be considered favorites in the Big East and Pac-10, respectively.
Then consider that of those five toughest opponents, Notre Dame will play four of them on the road. In light of these more subjective components, the Irish schedule may not be at historically grueling levels, but clearly it is tougher than initially expected.
That’s not to say the Irish deserve a top 25 ranking now, or a BCS berth two months from now.
Ultimately, Notre Dame still has to pass the eyeball test. At times this season they have with flying colors, while at others they’ve simply made us cover our eyes. The Irish have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and they’ve yet to go out and win any of those aforementioned road games.
But let’s not allow preseason preconceptions to linger past September just because Kenny Chesney inarticulately and inaccurately criticizes Notre Dame on College GameDay for playing Army, Navy and Air Force. (For the record, only the Midshipmen are on the schedule and they’re 4-2.)
If teams like Carolina, Michigan State, Pittsburgh and Boston College continue to play well, Notre Dame’s schedule will be very comparable to those played by the elite teams from BCS conferences.
41 comments Last one added 8 months ago — Leave a Comment
Michael Cline 9 months ago
Great article. Thanks for bringing this to the light. We'll have to keep a close eye on the Irish in the next few weeks.
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Michael Collins 9 months ago
Good article, Trey. I was thinking last week about how the schedule strength should continue to improve with MSU, USC, Pitts, and NC looking tough in their conferences and all in the top 25 now.
As for Chesney's lack of football knowledge, the Irish have played the three academies in the same year only twice in the last twenty years. In eight of those 20 years ND has played two academies - Navy and Air Force. The other ten years the Irish have played only Navy.
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Sebastian 9 months ago
I cannot stand the generic, uninformed opinion that Notre Dame plays all three service academies every year.
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jace frederick 8 months ago
good well written article, however, look for the spartans to tank again now that they are just getting into the thick of the big ten schedule
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Joe G 9 months ago
I think the team is still outside of the top 25 because of how bad they looked in the early part of the season. While they went 2-1 in their first three games, each team exposed some major flaws, notably turnovers and an abysmal running game.
They've really picked things up the last couple of weeks though. They've actually won convincingly. After watching the Purdue game, I couldn't say that a better team than Purdue would have been able to capitalize on ND's mistakes and win. So yeah, you're definitely right about the eyeball test. If they continue to improve, the rankings will come.
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Jim Sheridan 9 months ago
Awesome article. 5 star POTD. This is the week that will tell us where the Irish stand. A victory this week should mean breaking into the top 25.
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AJ Johnson 9 months ago
Go Tar Heels!
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CHRISTIAN GRAVES 9 months ago
notre dame still sucks. their schedule still sucks.
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Clashmore Mike 9 months ago
That's the kind of thoughtful, considered commentary this site needs more of. Well done. You are obviously a man of intelligence.
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Chris Copeland 9 months ago
ND also plays(ed) 3 of the worst teams in D-I in 0-5 Washington, 1-4 Syracuse and 1-4 San Diego St.
Irish also play(ed): 2-3 Michigan, 2-3 Purdue, 3-3 Stanford
And while MSU, Navy, and BC look good now- I don't see any one of those three ending the year any better than 8-4
There's little doubt ND will become at least bowl eligible, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. ND's schedule is still pretty easy...
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Sebastian 9 months ago
I don't think the author, or anyone, is or should be contending that the Irish have a top 10 schedule in terms of difficulty. I think the point of the article is that although it's not murderer's row, it's not filled with as many puppy dogs, sunshine, and rainbows as people initially thought.
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Raj Kamruddin 9 months ago
The author isnt saying that we play the toughest schedule, only saying it appears the schedule is tougher than anticipated before the season.
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Chris Copeland 9 months ago
Agree- but I just don't see how its looked at, as tough..
MSU's schedule is backloaded, UM, Purdue, Stanford, Navy are mediocre- Wash,Syracuse, SDSU suck, BC isn't as good as people think..
Which really leaves Pitt- extremely young, UNC- even younger and USC who are tough opponents and only one of those is in the top 20..
How is that tough?
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Ed Bliler 9 months ago
Wait a second..let us take a look at MSU's schedule:
Eastern Michigan 2-4
Florida Atlantic 1-5
Indiana 2-3
Iowa 3-3
Purdue 2-3
Michigan 2-3
HHHmmmm....not so impressive either. What do you think?
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Adam Martinez 9 months ago
Point of the story is that the schedule isn't a cake walk. You are going to see 8 teams on this schedule make bowl games (Michigan, MSU, Purdue, NC, Pitt, BC, Air Force, and USC) and Stanford may make a run at a bowl game too. I'm sorry, but if you play a schedule with 8 or 9 bowl eligible teams (msu, nc, pitt, bc, and usc may make big time bowls) you are playing a tough schedule. Maybe not a top 10 schedule, but you sure as hell need to bring your A game every week! And just ask USC, S. Florida, Wisconsin, or Wake Forest how mediocre Stanford, Pitt, Michigan, or Navy is.
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Douglas Garcia 9 months ago
Trey nice article, Finally someone that sees that this noted scurtney of irish schedule is unjustified. just as it was for USC ...when everyonne crowned them to be the best.. and didn't say nutt'n about there weak schedule. there is always an angle to see what you want to see. I see the irish potenially playing 6-7 ranked teams by years end , more then any top 25 school and to include Ball St ( Who?). A win over USC-- and playing Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Lets just say with 1 loss ... In the standings 1 or 2 wont happen. THE IRISH ARE RISING TO THE TOP ONCE AGAIN . Weis is for real---Can everyone say "Recruiting". Mr Christian look at who is calling the kettle black. There are several things i would like to throw your way ... I just believe you could not comprehend nor understand what a college fan is all about. You do rute for the Illini , But yet you feel the need to put your team ahead of ND. Let me know when they release you from the crazy farm. Maybe that way we could actually have a "sane" conservation. GO IRISH
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Douglas Garcia 9 months ago
As for Chris you need to erase ND and put the Top 25 teams dont really play anyone. We can do this all day on everyones schedule. Get over and move on. Oh ya keep winning , it helps the irish. If you catch my drift..... as long as a teams wins our teams look good ... False i'll tell you later.
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Chris Copeland 9 months ago
I can guarantee that not one Top 25 team has played 3 teams that are 0-5, 1-4. and 1-4...
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sven ghali 9 months ago
USC plays 0-5 UW, 1-4 WSU, and 1-4 UVA. Now, about that guarantee...
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Chris Copeland 9 months ago
Fair enough...
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Ed Bliler 9 months ago
Hey Chris...Your Top 25 Spartans have already played Eastern Michigan (2-4), Florida Atlantic (1-5),
Indiana (2-3), and Iowa (2-3)
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Chris Copeland 9 months ago
So.. I'm not attempting to defend MSU' SOS or writing an article depicting how I think MSU's schedule strength is better than originally thought...
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Danny Herron 8 months ago
Actually your attempts, whatever they are have been blasted out of the water. Before you guarantee, atleast make it difficult to prove you wrong. You beat us, be happy, it isn't something that you have been good at over the years, that is unless you have just became a College football fan.
Oh yeah Sabastian, another thing that gets old is when the haters say "unrealistic Notre Dame fans" that is funny because they can never show you where Notre Dame fans as a whole have been making "unrealistic predictions". It is mostly just jealousy that clouds their perception.
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Tony Bishop 9 months ago
I'm not going to get into the comparing of schedules and all that junk.
It all comes down to this- Notre Dame has a very weak schedule compared to pretty much their entire history as a program, but I agree with Trey in that it doesn't look quite as easy as we thought four months ago.
That being said, Notre Dame has lost at least a good portion of their media bias. For the first time I can remember Notre Dame will have to earn every vote they get.
All the Irish have to do is continue to go out and defeat those "weak" teams. Take care of business. The only way the Irish make a BCS game is to start blowing out everyone and then go into the Coliseum and pull of a huge upset.
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Jack Profess 9 months ago
ND's media bias has always been overblown in my opinion. As much as it is about dollars, and that is often part of why they have been chosen for BCS games in Weis' first two years (and by the way it is about dollars in all of the conferences) ND has always suffered from severe opinions on either side of their fan base. When they lose they get hammered in the polls, and when they win, people feel they get an unlikely bump. So in my opinion the haters have always taken full advantage of every chance to pounce after a loss, and maybe there are still some starry-eyed writers out there who give too much benefit of the doubt when they win...it completely balances out. At present, it is far more in vogue to hate ND and think even the bottom rung of the SEC could win the Superbowl and every other conference; and I personally feel that conference gets too much credit. These things go in cycles. Does anybody recall the 15 YEARS in a ROW that USC lost to ND before their current losing streak. Probably not...
As for a reality check...and I am an ND fan...ND has shown itself to be a young Top 35 team to date. In their opening near-loss, and the MSU game, they looked like the 3-9 squad for most of those games, so they do not deserve any benefit of the doubt. It is simple. If they go into a hostile UNC environment and win with balance, they may get a whiff of the Top 25. If not, they will need to continue to win on the road. They are still thin on the D-line and poor with their running game (sometimes inept). This is not going to get you BCS love and should not. Get the Gator/Peach/Sunshine Bowl this year, hopefully win, and build for a Top 15 campaign next year.
As for the stupid Navy/Air Force comments...the service academies are far better than the Western Lousiania Tech crap the likes of the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten+ play, but they all get a pass. That will always be the case.
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Clashmore Mike 9 months ago
Fine article, Trey. You have effectively shown that the conventional wisdom about NDs schedule is mistaken. It is only softer by ND standards, and softer than it has been in the last few years, when it was skewed toward the ridiculously difficult end of the spectrum. There is only one reason why ND is still unranked. If you need a reason, look at the likes of Mark May.
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Lisa Horne 9 months ago
Trey-
This was fabulous, and you brought up a very good point- Michigan State is notorious for falling apart mid-season....just like Cal. It really brings down the SOS.
We will find out how good ND is on their second road trip @ NC...the first didn't turn out well in East Lansing. I had them ranked last week, and don't understand why they still are not ranked.
Five Stars, POTD....you are one of the finest writers here, Trey....I love reading your articles! :)
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Richard DeLancey 9 months ago
Great article. Ball State ranked 25, would not be 4-1 or better with the schedule Notre Dame has played so far this year.
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Jeremy 9 months ago
the way the bcs is notre dame needs 9 wins and top 14 in the bcs. A real possibility since the domers will travel. but i am not sure if the irish are worthy enough even if they get to 10 wins
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Clashmore Mike 9 months ago
As partisan as I am, I am also pretty clear-eyed about the state of ND. I don't believe the Irish are BSC caliber yet, and probably won't be this year. Of course, we'll see how they do the second half of the season, and should they run the table then, well...that's another story. However, personally speaking, I would like to see them play in a respectable post-season game like the Gator Bowl. And win. And then, next year... look out.
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ND 97 9 months ago
Who cares? None of it matters if we don't beat UNC. If we win all of our games, things will work themselves out regardless of the SOS. I don't see the point of worrying about it this early into the season. If we beat UNC we'll be ranked.
Coming off last year's season and having such a young team, I can see why there's a stigma. Just have to win games to earn the right to climb the ranks.
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Kevin Aitken 9 months ago
Is Chris from MSU John Smith's son?
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TBoneND 9 months ago
ND's schedule, if the assumptions in the article continue to hold true, is comarable to both the u of M and the oSU last year.
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jimmy p 9 months ago
so far ND has beaten three teams combined 5-13 and needed a blown call to defeat a very medicore Stanford team. So far, NOT so good.
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jimmy p 9 months ago
oh and a miracle to beat a 1-5 SDST team at home that just fired their coach. NIIIICEEEE!
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jimmy p 9 months ago
"However, personally speaking, I would like to see them play in a respectable post-season game like the Gator Bowl. And win. And then, next year... look out."
Spaulding: "I want a milkshake, no I want a hot dog and french fries, no..."
CLASHMORE, you'll get nothing and like it!!!!
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Brian 9 months ago
I think Notre Dame is an improved football team, but not yet a good football team. When they prove they can win a road game against an evenly matched opponent, I will think of them as good. I see the progress being made week to week, so I think that day is near.
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J Wiley 8 months ago
Saturday was progress?
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Chris Copeland 8 months ago
I think ND should just worry about winning a bowl game- any bowl game before it should be allowed back in the BCS Bowl discussion...
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Danny Herron 8 months ago
Agreed. The experience depth chart isn't deep enough yet. It is funny that people think that we will be upset if we don't go to a BCS bowl this year. No one I know expected us to, most think that we will earn a bowl but might get bumped up some because of the draw, but not to a BCS. That nod we got for the sugar bowl was what did us in. The year before it was a close game with 5 min remaining.
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Gerald Ball 8 months ago
Danny:
No, it was the fact that Notre Dame has not won a bowl game of any sort since the early 90s and received back to back BCS bowl bids despite not having beaten a top 20 team in the Charlie Weis era (which by the way you guys still haven't done and won't do this year ... well wait a minute you might beat BC who may finish 19 or 18 so whoopee) that did you in. And while ND did have a theoretical chance of beating Ohio State in that game, there was never any doubt as to which was the more talented better coached and superior in every way team.
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