Notre Dame's Strength Of Schedule: Stronger Than Expected

Notre Dame is unranked at 4-1 for the first time in program history as they head to North Carolina to face a No. 23 Tar Heel team with an identical record.

And just to drive the point home, the Irish are eight point underdogs. 

Why? 

It's the same reasoning that a few bold college football pundits used to explain how a team coming off a 3-9 campaign could turn around and win 10 games in 2008.

Scheduling.

Leading up to this season, Notre Dame's was expected to be uncharacteristically soft and front-loaded with home games—just what the fledgling Irish needed to recover from a forgettable fall.

But six weeks into the season, closer examination shows the Notre Dame slate is anything but fluffy, and in fact when compared against those of other top 25 programs, would be better categorized as balanced and challenging.

According to the Toughest Schedule report available at ncaa.org, the Irish rank 54th in cumulative opposition—a measure of past and future opponents’ win-loss record.

Of the teams in this week’s top 25, exactly 10 have a schedule that would be considered “softer” than Notre Dame’s, including top 10 teams like Alabama, Penn State, USC and BYU. 

Admittedly, the NCAA’s strength of schedule is a shallow, objective statistic.  It doesn’t consider where or when you play your opponents, or who your opponents have played—which is why the BCS uses a more comprehensive strength of schedule measure. 

To use a familiar example, Irish faithful will rightly point out that their strength of schedule always takes a hit about this time of year when the Spartans go in the tank.  However, it is not uncommon for Michigan State to bring an unbeaten record and their best game plan into Notre Dame week.  

So let’s look at some of those other factors in Notre Dame’s case. 

Not only do the majority of their opponents have respectable records, several should compete for conference titles.  Michigan State, North Carolina, and Boston College are very much in the thick of things.  Pittsburgh and USC should be considered favorites in the Big East and Pac-10, respectively. 

Then consider that of those five toughest opponents, Notre Dame will play four of them on the road.  In light of these more subjective components, the Irish schedule may not be at historically grueling levels, but clearly it is tougher than initially expected.

That’s not to say the Irish deserve a top 25 ranking now, or a BCS berth two months from now. 

Ultimately, Notre Dame still has to pass the eyeball test.  At times this season they have with flying colors, while at others they’ve simply made us cover our eyes.  The Irish have yet to beat a team with a winning record, and they’ve yet to go out and win any of those aforementioned road games.

But let’s not allow preseason preconceptions to linger past September just because Kenny Chesney inarticulately and inaccurately criticizes Notre Dame on College GameDay for playing Army, Navy and Air Force.  (For the record, only the Midshipmen are on the schedule and they’re 4-2.)

If teams like Carolina, Michigan State, Pittsburgh and Boston College continue to play well, Notre Dame’s schedule will be very comparable to those played by the elite teams from BCS conferences.

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