The Houston Astros beat the San Diego Padres last 1-0, dropping the Padres to 5-7 on the young season. The “losing” pitcher in last night’s game was Dustin Moseley.
For Moseley, losing should be nothing new. With the loss last night, Moseley is now 0-3 in 2011. But the reality is, he should be 3-0.
Moseley has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP in three games. Sadly for him, it wouldn’t matter if he had a 0.25 ERA through three starts. That’s because the Padres have not scored a single run in any of Moseley’s three starts. He becomes the first pitcher since Kenny Rogers in 2008 to receive no run support in his first three starts of the season.
The Padres have lost 2-0, 4-0 and 1-0 in his starts. Ouch.
This is just another example why wins are an overrated measure for judging a pitcher. That’s why I put losing in quotes in the first paragraph. If Moseley was pitching like this for a team like the Cincinnati Reds or Texas Rangers, he would be 3-0.
I will say things might actually get worse for Moseley as the season moves on. While Moseley might have no luck with getting wins, his peripherals show he has had tremendous luck in other areas.
Moseley has a 1.8 K/9 rate and somehow has held batters to a .261 BABIP. There is no way that is sustainable as the season progresses. Sooner or later, all of those groundballs he is inducing (60.3 percent) will start finding holes.
And once those balls start finding holes, his 80 percent LOB Percentage (MLB average in 2010 was around 72 percent), will come down and his once proud ERA will start to take a hit.
If you want to take a look at where Moseley will end the season in terms of ERA, just take a look at his xFIP. Right now, his xFIP is 4.42. That’s pretty much where you can expect Moseley to finish in 2011.
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