MLB Trade Speculation: Analyzing Top 10 NY Mets Prospects' Odds of Being Moved

Jim MancariCorrespondent IApril 15, 2011

MLB Trade Speculation: Analyzing Top 10 NY Mets Prospects' Odds of Being Moved

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    Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

    Earlier this week, I released my list of the New York Mets top-25 minor league prospects.

    I will now analyze the top-10 prospects’ chances of being traded at some point this season or down the road.

    The Mets are off to a slow start, but luckily it’s still early. If the season progresses and the team doesn’t improve, the Mets will likely try to trade some of their core players.

    As unlikely as it may sound to some, the Mets may be in the thick of things around the trade deadline, and will have to make the tough decision of whether to part ways with their top prospects.

    Would the Mets be willing to deal their good young talent? It’s happened before (Scott Kazmir, Nolan Ryan), and it could happen again.

    Here are the odds of each top-10 prospect being moved.

10. Darrell Ceciliani, CF

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    Darrell Ceciliani is only 20 years old, and he only has one year of professional baseball under his belt.

    He showed a ton of energy for the Brooklyn Cyclones last season, and will look to continue this style of play this season for the Savannah Sand Gnats.

    He led the entire Mets organization—including the Major League team—with a .351 batting average.

    The Mets do have some talented young outfield prospects, but most project as corner outfielders.

    Ceciliani has the speed and range to play center field, which may make him more of an asset over the other prospects.

    Odds of Being Moved: Very Low

9. Fernando Martinez, RF/CF

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    Just when we thought Fernando Martinez was finally healthy, he aggravated his hamstring for the Buffalo Bisons.

    The 22-year-old outfielder has had injury troubles his whole career, which is a shame considering the level of talent he brings to the table.

    Other outfield prospects are starting to pass F-Mart on the minor league depth chart. When he has been healthy, inconsistency has clouded his on-field performance.

    The Mets may be wise to explore trading F-Mart. However, he will need to return to the field soon, and prove to other teams that he can stay healthy.

    Knowing the Mets luck, they will trade him, and he will come back to be a Met-killer.

    Odds of Being Moved: Moderately High

8. Reese Havens, 2B

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    Reese Havens is another Mets prospect that has caught the injury bug.

    This is a big year for Havens, since there may be another open second base competition next spring.

    The Mets have big hopes for Havens, which may allow him to stick around. He has a strong power stroke and good range at second.

    He could potentially be a September call-up this year, so look for the Mets to hang onto the University of South Carolina product.

    Odds of Being Moved: Very Low

7. Cesar Puello, RF

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    Cesar Puello is said to be a raw talent who still needs a ton of work.

    Luckily for him, he’s only 20, so he should be given the time to learn from his mistakes.

    He joins a talented class of outfield prospects, though he may have the best overall skills of the bunch.

    As such, other teams wanting to make a deal with the Mets may ask for Puello over the other prospects. He’s a budding five-tool player with an enormous ceiling.

    Depending on how some of the other outfielders pan out, the Mets may be more inclined to move Puello, but only if they receive Major League talent in return.

    Odds of Being Moved: Moderate

6. Ruben Tejada, 2B/SS

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    With Jose Reyes off to a great start, the Mets can approach his impending free agency in two ways.

    The team can either try to lock him up to a long-term extension or attempt to trade him while his value is high.

    If he signs an extension, the insurance policy at shortstop, Ruben Tejada, becomes expendable, unless he shifts to second base full-time.

    However, if the Mets trade Reyes, Tejada is their shortstop. He’s proven he has the glove of a Major League-caliber ballplayer, but his bat still needs work.

    In the scheme of things, Tejada’s Mets future lies in the hands of Reyes.

    Odds of Being Moved: Depends Fully on Jose Reyes

5. Matt Harvey, RHP

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    Matt Harvey will be pitching in his first full season in the Mets minor league system.

    He appears to have all the tools of a front of the rotation starter. The Mets could use one of those in the upcoming years, especially if injuries continue to plague Johan Santana.

    Harvey will be given every chance to progress through the minors and someday play at Citi Field.

    He likely won’t be going anywhere for at least the time being.

    Odds of Being Moved: Extremely Low

4. Cory Vaughn, RF

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    Cory Vaughn isn’t going anywhere either.

    The young right fielder displayed great power at Brooklyn’s MCU Park, which is a challenging venue to hit home runs.

    With Carlos Beltran likely on the way out after this season, there will be a huge void in right field. The Mets could explore a trade, since the free agent market for outfielders will be slim.

    A big year from Vaughn automatically tosses his name in the conversation. He will start at Single-A, but if advances through the system by season’s end, Citi Field may be in his near future.

    Odds of Being Moved: Extremely Low

3. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF

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    Al Bello/Getty Images

    Lucas Duda has now had two cups of coffee in the Major Leagues. He’s gotten some big hits, but he has also struck out a ton.

    He’s more of a first baseman by trade, but has played the outfield in both his Mets stints.

    Duda must improve his plate discipline if he plans on being an everyday professional player.

    Ike Davis is blocking Duda’s path to the majors, at least at first base. If another team views Duda as strictly a first baseman, the Mets may look to work something out via trade.

    Once again though, the Mets would have to receive Major League talent.

    Odds of Being Moved: Moderate

2. Wilmer Flores, SS

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    Wilmer Flores is only 19, which means he’s not going anywhere.

    Give him a few years, and he could become a household name.

    With the uncertain future of Jose Reyes, the Mets will need several different options to fill in at shortstop. While Ruben Tejada could provide the stopgap, Flores could be the long-term answer.

    Flores’ future also depends on Reyes, but he’s not as close to the majors as Tejada.

    Odds of Being Moved: Extremely Low

1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP

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    Al Bello/Getty Images

    Jenrry Mejia has already looked great for the Buffalo Bisons, and may be the first to get the call if one of the Mets starters goes down for an extended period of time.

    He has electric stuff, and has the potential to be part of the Mets starting rotation for a long time.

    For an organization that has developed great pitching prospects like Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Dwight Gooden and Jon Matlack, the Mets hope to add Mejia’s name to that list.

    He’s likely to see some time at Citi Field this season. If the Mets continue to struggle, it might be sooner rather than later.

    Odds of Being Moved: Extremely Low