2011 NFL Draft: How Likely Are Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Hit on Drafting DE?
By on April 11, 2011
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Draft: Bucs will have a tough time landing a fix to their pass rush woes:
There is no question that Tampa Bay is hoping to improve its pass rush in the 2011 NFL Draft. The Buccaneers struggled to get to the quarterback in 2010 and want to fix that by drafting an impact player early.
But how early is too early?
The Bucs draft 20th overall where there should be an abundance of talented and promising defensive end prospects, from Arizona's Brooks Reed to Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan to Georgia's Justin Houston.
Charlie Bernstein of Scout.com warns, however, that drafting a defensive end in the first round is very risky. Bernstein studied defensive end selections from 2000-2009 and found that only 33.3 percent of ends drafted in the first round have turned into success stories.
While even less second-round defensive end picks have turned into good picks, the risk-reward ratio is less harsh, argues Bernstein.
However, drafting scared is no way to draft at all. If Tampa Bay believes in a prospect, they aren't likely to consider research such as Bernstein's. It does show us how difficult it is to pick a defensive end in the first round. Bernstein conducted the same research for every position and determined that first-round defensive ends fail to work out more than any other position.
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