2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Canadiens-Bruins Series Preview

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2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Canadiens-Bruins Series Preview
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The Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins are two of the "Original Six" teams. As such, both are steeped in history and rich traditions.

 

A huge part of that tradition is facing either other in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

These two teams have met 32 times in the post-season since 1928, with the Canadiens holding a commanding 24-8 record.

The last time they met was in 2009, when the Bruins swept Montreal in four straight games.

Montreal and Boston met six times this season with the Habs going 4-2-0, but the numbers don't tell the complete story. This has been one of the most explosive seasons between the two clubs in recent memory.

From the early-season fight-filled game to the one where Zdeno Chara famously knocked Max Pacioretty unconscious, these are two teams that absolutely despise each other.

So what will happen when the puck drops on this series on Thursday? Aside from the incredible hype and anticipation, here's how I see it shaping up...


Offense

The Montreal Canadiens, like last season, have trouble scoring goals. They finished the year 21st in the league in scoring with 2.6 goals per game—or a total of 216 goals scored.

That is the lowest goals-for total of all 16 playoff teams.

The Bruins, on the other hand, have a well-balanced attack and ended the season with the fifth best goals-for—averaging 3.0 per game or 246 total goals. Only six playoff teams have scored more goals than Boston this season.

Boston has four 20-goal scorers (Michael Ryder has 18) and 12 players with 10 or more, including Blake Wheeler who was traded to the Atlanta Thrashers.

Montreal, on the other hand, has only three 20-goal scorers (Michael Cammalleri has 19) and only nine players with 10 or more. That includes both Max Pacioretty and Jeff Halpern, neither of who will be playing in Game One.

Boston has a clear advantage up front. Montreal will have to rely on their special teams and goalie to get the job done.

Advantage: Boston.


Defense

Boston has the second lowest goals-against in the league, at 2.3 per game or 195 total goals. In addition, their goals-for/against differential of plus-51 is second best in the league.

Led by players like Chara, Dennis Seidenberg, Tomas Kaberle and Johnny Boychuk, Boston possesses a big, burly, tough and skilled defensive corp. The Bruins' defenders are not the most fleet footed in the league, however, and can be exposed by a speed game.

As such, Montreal needs to get their considerable speed engaged to cycle and draw penalties.

Chara, as always, will be the key defender for Boston and should continue to log 24-plus minutes of ice time.

Montreal has the eighth lowest goals-against at 2.5 per game or 209 total goals. Their goals-for/against differential is a measly plus-7, tied for third worst among playoff teams.

The Canadiens played most of the season without Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges, their No. 1 and No. 2 defensemen. That being said, the emergence of rookie sensation P.K. Subban, along with solid contributions from Roman Hamrlik, Hal Gill and James Wisniewski, gives the Canadiens a solid, if unspectacular defensive corp.

The sum of the parts is truly better than the whole.

Subban, who has competently filled the gaping No.1 defender hole for Montreal, is going to have his work cut out for him. Along with partner Hal Gill, Subban will play against the Bruins top players all series, which means a healthy dose of Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton, David Krejci and others.

The playoffs are a very different animal from the regular season and Subban is about to find out what that means for a top NHL defenseman. He will be targeted for physical punishment and will have to keep his emotions in check to avoid foolish retaliatory penalties.

Subban aside, the Canadiens also have slow-skating defenders, some of whom are lacking in the toughness department. However, Paul Mara and Brent Sopel are two players who bring a ton of toughness and grit to the table. As such, I would expect them to be given bigger roles in this series.

Montreal will need their crease-clearing abilities to give Carey Price a fighting chance.

Advantage: Boston. Let's face it, as admirable a job as the Canadiens defenders have done this season, they don't have the size and toughness of the Bruins defensive unit.


Goaltending

With Carey Price in one net and Tim Thomas in the other, this should be a goaltending battle for the ages.

Both goalies are being mentioned in Vezina and Hart Trophy conversations. Both have put up career numbers this season.

Thomas led the league with a 2.00 GAA and a league-record .938 save percentage. In addition, he racked up a 35-11-9 record and was second in the league with nine shutouts. He is 2-1-1 against Montreal this season with a 3.22 GAA and a .907 save percentage.

Price, on the other hand, won a career-best and league-leading 38 games—tied with Roberto Luongo—and had a third-best eight shutouts. He finished the season with a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage while facing the second most shots in the league, at 2147.

Price has a 4-2-0 record against the Bruins this season, but allowing 13 goals in his last two starts in Boston, has a 3.66 GAA and .899 save percentage against them.

Numbers aside, Price has shown a calm, collected attitude all season. The Bruins need to crash and crowd Price's crease as much as possible.

If Price sees the shot, he will stop it.

Thomas, on the other hand, has shown that he can be thrown off his game if the Canadiens get in his face. Moreover, his unorthodox style tends to produce juicy rebounds. As much as the Canadiens struggle to go to the net, they must push the puck there to score in this series.

If they pay the physical price by going to the dirty areas they should be able to capitalize.

Advantage: Montreal, although the edge is razor thin and goaltending is closer to a push in this series than anything else.


Special Teams

If Montreal's main weakness is their lack of size and physicality, the Bruins' Achilles Heel are their special teams.

Boston struggled with the 20th ranked power play at 16.2 percent and the 16th penalty kill, at 82.6 percent efficiency.

Montreal, on the other hand, is seventh in both PP (19.7 percent) and PK (84.4 percent).

The Canadiens strength is their speed. If they use it, their speed will back up the Bruins' defenders and force them into obstruction-like penalties. Given both Coach Julien and Martin's defense-first mentalities, we could be seeing a lot of close, tightly played games.

As such, the special teams could be the deciding factor in a few games and maybe even the series.

Advantage: Montreal. Clear cut.


Keys to Victory

Size versus speed. Toughness versus pure skill. That's what this series comes down to.

Subban is a marked man and, as the Canadiens No.1 defender, will get a ton of physical attention from Boston. Players like Lucic and Horton will hit him every chance they get. It will be interesting to see how he handles the physical abuse over the potentially long series.

On the other end of the ice, the Canadiens need to chip pucks behind Chara and hit him every chance they get. Montreal must frustrate and get under Chara's skin to get him off his game. Ditto for Thomas.


Montreal Wins If...

Montreal will win if they can use their speed to cycle and draw penalties, keep the Bruins shooters to the outside, effectively clear the crease and score one power-play goal per game while shutting down the Bruins PP.

They also need consistent scoring from Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri, Andrei Kostitsyn, Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez. This series could be over in a hurry if these players slump or have trouble finding a groove.

Montreal must also frustrate the Bruins while focusing on playing hockey and not getting caught up in the post-whistle shenanigans. The Habs need to be disciplined and skate away from confrontations, which only play to the Bruins' strength.

The Canadiens beat Boston four times this season by focusing on hockey. They have to remember that.

Finally, the Canadiens must win one of the first two games in Boston. If they can steal home-ice advantage from the Bruins, Montreal will skate to victory.


Boston Wins If...

Boston needs to lean on Montreal physically while staying out of the penalty box. The Bs have better 5-on-5 scoring and will need to dominate this facet of the game to win the series.

The Bruins win if they can be physical without taking penalties,  crash and crowd Price's crease, tire Subban with constant physical pressure and stick to playing hockey while avoiding the goonery.

The Bruins showed in their last game that they have the ability to beat Montreal without gooning it up. A tough, physical game based on skill—not thuggery—will capture the series for Boston.


Outcome

I don't see a blowout either way. There will be no four-game sweep in this series.

If Montreal can't win one of the first two games, I see the Bruins taking this in six. If, however, the Canadiens can steal a game in Boston, they will plant seeds of doubt in the Bruins' minds and seal the deal.

Ultimately, while the Canadiens have the tools to get the job done, Boston showed their ability to beat Montreal with tough but disciplined hockey last game. As such, I expect they will bring the same style to the table while Montreal will once again struggle with the plague of costly, lazy penalties and pop-gun offense.

Carey Price will steal a game or two in this series, but the Habs won't manage much more.

Prediction: Boston in six games.

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Kamal is a freelance Habs writer, Senior Writer/Editor-in-Chief of HabsAddict.com, Montreal Canadiens Blogger on Hockeybuzz.com and Habs writer on TheFranchise.ca. Kamal is also a weekly contributor to the Sunday Shinny on The Team 990 (AM 990) every Sunday from 8 - 9 AM. Listen live at http://www.team990.com/

Follow Kamal on Facebook, Twitter, HabsAddict.com and Hockeybuzz.com

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