Alabama, I Like Our Chances

The unofficial BCS polls are hot off the press and show The University of Alabama a solid No. 2. 

The official poll will not be released until Oct. 19, but this unofficial poll uses the same formula the official poll uses to reach its conclusion. Here is how it shakes out so far:

Looking at Alabama's current standing, and the schedules of Alabama and the other contenders. I have to like Alabama's chances of making the BCS Championship Game in Miami on Jan. 8.

For those of you who do not know me, this is very out of character for me to make such a premature prediction.

To pick Alabama to make it to the BCS Championship Game after only six games would seem a little foolhardy, but I really like this Alabama football team.

Besides, I thought this might be fun!

So let's examine Alabama's chances. 

For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that if Alabama keeps winning, they will not be passed by any of the other BCS contenders. Okay?

Okay, here we go...

The SEC contenders on the mock BCS poll that might stand in Alabama's way are Georgia, Vanderbilt, and LSU. Let's address them right away.

Alabama has already beaten Georgia and does not have Vanderbilt on their regular season schedule. There is still a possibility they would meet Vandy or Georgia in the SEC Championship in Atlanta on Dec. 6.

If that were to happen, I would have to give Alabama the edge in that game.

Georgia has already lost one game to Alabama and could easily lose another SEC game  before December.

Vanderbilt is a well-coached, hard-nosed team, but I think they will run out of gas down the stretch.

LSU we do play, so I will talk more about this team, and the other two later in this article.

Let's now have a look at Alabama's remaining schedule:

Next up for Alabama is Ole Miss. Ole Miss has shown it is capable of knocking off ranked teams, as they did down in "The Swamp" a couple of weeks ago.

Alabama will play the Rebels on Oct. 18 in Tuscaloosa. Both teams are on a bye week, so all things being even, I really like Alabama at home after the really well-timed break. Coach Nutt will have his team ready, but so will Coach Saban (Advantage Alabama) 

Alabama's biggest test will come three weeks later in Baton Rouge against LSU on Nov. 8. LSU has a "damn strong" team, as Les Miles would say.

Even with that, Alabama almost beat LSU last year in Tuscaloosa last year. Had it not been for a fumble in the closing minutes of that game, LSU would not have even been in last year's title game.

This year's Alabama team is far superior to last year's edition of the Crimson Tide. On the other hand, LSU is just a shell of the team that Les Miles put on the field last year.

Their quarterback situation really leaves them at a disadvantage. (Advantage Alabama)

The only other stumbling blocks I did not bother to mention for Alabama are Tennessee and Auburn. Both these teams are struggling, and their coaches are at this point just trying to save their jobs. They are irrelevant at this point. 

They both are having trouble just scoring points period, much less on the Alabama defense. (Advantage Alabama)

So Alabama gets through their schedule unblemished. Next up for Alabama, who will they face in the SEC Championship Game? 

I already mentioned Vanderbilt. I like Vanderbilt, but I think the unbeaten party stops for them Oct. 18 with Georgia. That doesn't necessarily end Vandy's Eastern Division hopes, but it will be the beginning of the end for the Commodores. they will fade.

Logic dictates Alabama will see Florida, or maybe Georgia again.

If I had my choice (which I don't), I would not want a rematch with Georgia for the simple fact that outcome has already been established. Anything short of another route would be seen as a step backwards by the voters, and our fans.

I do not believe any team should get a second shot at a team that has already defeated them in the same season.

It happened to Alabama in 1999 with Florida. We had already played and beaten Florida under Steve Spurrier, and then had to beat them again in the SEC Championship to reach our goal of a New Year's Day bowl.

I remember how unfair that seemed to me at the time.

It not only gave Florida a chance for revenge, it gave the team that we were competing with for the bowl invitation the chance to just sit and watch us go down.

That situation still exists today in the case of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten. Totally unfair, but that is a subject for another time.

Let's assume for the purpose of the discussion Alabama's SEC title game opponent ends up being the Florida Gators. Let's also assume Alabama is healthy, and so is Florida. 

Now, Florida is a very good team. I have watched them play several times this year, and there seems to be something missing. It's hard for me to pinpoint it, but I think it is hunger. They also seem to not have the chemistry they had the year they won the national championship.

That sometimes happens with too much success. When you have too many great athletes on the same team, there is a lack of oneness. I call it the New York Yankees syndrome. 

Alabama, on the other hand, has great team chemistry, and I can vouch for the fact that this team and its fans are starving for a shot at No. 1.

Having established that, the advantage Alabama has had this year against every team they have beaten has been in the trenches. I see Alabama having the same advantage against Florida, especially when it comes to Florida's offense. For that reason alone, I predict it will be a knock down, drag out, but once again... (Advantage Alabama)

Trying to figure out who Alabama will meet in Miami on Jan. 8 is more complicated. Without going game by game and losing my readers' interest, I will just keep it short and sweet.  

To simplify things, let's assume that everyone in the running for the BCS Title Game doesn't lose to anyone that is not already in the top 12 in the current BCS polls.

Let's also assume what I already assume: that Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Missouri will all knock each other off as their regular seasons progress. They also have to deal with a championship game like the SEC does.

If that is what happens, that leaves Penn State, Utah, BYU, and USC. 

I will eliminate Utah and BYU for lack of strength of schedule. Therefore we are down to Penn State and USC.

USC is a great team, but they have already screwed the pooch against Oregon State, where Mike Riley gave Coach Carroll a coaching clinic.

I can't imagine the pollsters giving them another chance, if Penn State is still undefeated.

So my pick for Alabama's opponent in Miami is Joe Paterno's Penn State Nittany Lions.

There you have it football fans...Alabama will play Penn State on Jan. 8, 2009 for the 2008 College Football National Championship!

In this game of Joe Pa vs. Nick Saban?

Joe Paterno is one of my heros, and I have always respected Penn State.

Having said that, Alabama has always had the edge on Penn State in our mutual histories. Today, Nick Saban has Alabama playing like the Alabama of old .

Alabama has won the National Championship by having to 'Roll' over Penn State before. I see no reason that would change this year.

(Advantage Alabama)

What say you?

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